PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 4 - High chances of first World Tour breakaway win of the season

Preview. Stage 4 of the Giro d'Italia will be the first day in the mountains. As the riders go up to Lago Laceno, the GC contenders will need to be very sharp in the final, and breakaway specialists will have an eye on the day as well.

The fourth stage of the Giro d'Italia is set to end at Lago Laceno after climbing the Colle Mollela, as was the case in the 8th stage of the 2012 Giro d'Italia. After the individual time-trial, this should be the first stage to create differences between the overall classification contenders, featuring some tough gradients in the 10-kilometer climb.

Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 4: 12:30-17:15CET

The day features 3600 meters of climbing. It's not high-mountain but it's far from an easy day, and the total climbing amount may make it a more difficult and aggressive finale. The first mountain stage of the Giro is traditionally conservative and battled among the breakaway, and the tough start to the day favors those who want to make moves.

The day features two long categorized climbs in the middle of the day, one of them being 13.5 kilometers at 4.3% (112Km to go) and Valico di Monte Carruozo which is split into two, a 19-kilometer effort where with the exception of a flat section in the middle is mostly raced at 5% with . The roads will not be completely flat then until the final ascent, featuring small climbs and descents until reaching the town of Montella where the riders find an intermediate sprint and then move into the final climb.

This is the Colle Molella. In total it's 9.8 kilometers long at 5.9%, however it's also a climb of two halves. The first less steep and there is a section where riders can rest a bit. The second half is considerably tougher, with 4.4 kilometers at 8.8% towards the summit. Gradients of 10% will frequently be found, it is definitely hard enough to see attacks.

The summit is only 3 kilometers from the finish. The final kilometers then are flat and without corners, ideal for late attacks to spring off for the win if a modestly sized group is at the head of the race.

Slight breeze from the northeast which could be higher in exposed sections. That won't truly be the case here however, it's hard to imagine the wind will play a difference, but the slight possibility of rain will make it another tense day.

Remco Evenepoel - Evenepoel has sprinted for bonus seconds today. Logic would dictate that he wants to give away pink so that Quick-Step don't have to be in the head of the peloton. That hasn't really been the case so far however, it may not make much difference. An ordinary rider would likely take it conservative, however he's clearly in great form and could try to repeat his Vuelta performance where he attacked the first week hard.

Primoz Roglic - Roglic's job, despite being behind in the GC, is to keep up with Evenepoel if he attacks. Otherwise it's just a tough finale where he has to keep everyone under eye. If the GC riders do fight for a win he has the sprint to fight for a win with no doubt.

This is a tough stage. There is enough total climbing to really create fatigue and the final climb features hard gradients. It could turn out to be an all-out GC day. If so you would have to watch the likes of Jay Vine and João Almeida, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Aleksandr Vlasov and Bahrain trio of Santiago Buitrago, Damiano Caruso and Jack Haig. It will be a first climbing test, but if sensations are good there is terrain to make differences.

Third liners in the climbs could also be threatening. Back in 2012 it was Domenico Pozzovivo who won here, 11 years later the Italian could try to do the same. There is still meaningful climbing quality in some more riders who may aim for the GC such as Thibaut Pinot, Lorenzo Fortunato, Eddie Dunbar, Einer Rubio and Aurélien Paret-Peintre. If they are to succeed outside of breakaways this will be their day.

Others such as Lennard Kämna, Geraint Thomas and Thymen Arensman on the other side will wish for a conservative race most likely as they do not enter the race with their best form.

But breakaways do have to be mentioned. In recent years the first mountain stage of the Giro has frequently saw breakaway succeed. In some occasions the pink jersey has changed hands, last year Juan Pedro López found himself in the lead of the race for many days through that. There's a lot of potential for glory, riders will know that and with Evenepoel having mentioned earlier in the race that he would likely want to pass it on, a breakaway can very well be glorious here. This would however be the first breakaway win in a World Tour race this year, a shocking yet telling stat on how racing has been playing out this year.

If the lead were to change hands there are some riders well positioned such as Andreas Leknessund, Will Barta, Bauke Mollema and Rigoberto Urán for example.

Brandon McNulty, Bob Jungels, Patrick Konrad, Joe Dombroswki, Ben Healy, Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, Jefferson Cepeda, Samuele Battistella and Matthew Riccitello are all riders to watch on the day too. Some teams may give riders freedom to attack that otherwise they wouldn't normally have, so in reality many are expected to try early in the day.

*** Brandon McNulty, Jefferson Cepeda, Patrick Konrad
** Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Rigoberto Urán
* Andreas Leknessund, Bauke Mollema, Bob Jungels, Davide Formolo, Tao Geoghegan Hart, João Almeida, Jay Vine

Pick: Brandon McNulty