PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 10 - Attack or defend for Jonas Vingegaard in another summit finish?

Stage 10 of the Vuelta a Espana will be the first day of the race following the rest day. This Tuesday, we will have a very similar summit finish to that of the previous stage, with Torstein Traeen entering it in the red jersey. We preview a day where Jonas Vingegaard's attitude however will be the key factor.

After being used in the 2023 edition, the climb to Larra Belagua is going to be used again as a summit finish. This time around though, at the end of a mostly flat stage. It's the race's return to the Pyrenees, even though they were not gone for long, but it's an important day for the GC - specially after the race's first rest day, which can also lead to a bad day for some riders.

This is virtually the exact same stage as the previous one, the exact same format and a final climb that is almost a complete replica, hence we cannot expect the results to be significantly different. Throughout the day there are four small ascents that will dictate some fatigue in the legs of the riders but none of them come early on and will influence the breakaway formation. Most riders will instead look towards the final kilometers of the stage.

The climb to Larra Belagua is 9.3 kilometers long at 6.3%, most of the climb at around 7%, a very consistent one but with a lot more switchbacks which make it more likely to see big attacks. Still it won't be easy to make the difference taking into consideration the lack of true hard gradients. The final kilometers also flatten out which means meaningful moves have to happen early on.

Some southwestern wind which will come as a tailwind throughout most of the day and also on the final climb. This means we've got better chances of seeing a breakaway succeed but also of attacks in the final ascent.

Jonas Vingegaard - The truth is that even in red, Visma won't commit to chasing down breakaways or spending unnecessary energy. But they may not go for the jersey if Vingegaard doesn't want to attack this climb, as Torstein Traeen is climbing well and could well still hold it unless someone else commits to go all-out with the Dane in the wheel. Vingegaard doesn't need to attack, but his Valdezcaray will not only be an important move GC wise but also psychologically, as he has shown that it can come at any time. And he has the explosivity over João Almeida - his now only rival for GC win I would say - and may want to use this less steep ascent to make the difference again.

João Almeida - UAE above all have to stick together. Yes, they can go and hunt the stage win with Jay Vine or Juan Ayuso but they have done so already and with either of them or Marc Soler, they have to be present in case Jonas Vingegaard attacks again. Almeida has to be able to respond, but his lack of explosivity means this is unlikely. Nevertheless the Portuguese is where you expect him to be.

Tom Pidcock - Well there is the chance that again a modest breakaway will go up the breakaway and can be controlled, in which case Q36.5 have good reason to try and control, because unless Vingegaard attacks all-out, then it's very viable that a small group sprint could decide the stage and Pidcock in such scenario could go on to take the win after what he's shown in the past few days.

We could see Giulio Ciccone be able to resist and also be part of a battle for the stage win in an explosive arrival, if that scenario is to take place. Felix Gall, Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari and Egan Bernal should also be present.

The breakaway candidates are, honestly, the same. The stage is, and I'm not being dramatic, designed literally for the same type of riders. The final climb is almost exactly the same and nothing beforehand is likely to affect the stage in any meaningful way - besides, stage 9 did not see a successful breakaway and only one strong climber/classics rider was present, so no energy was really burned out.

Michal Kwiatkowski, Victor Langellotti, Wout Poels, Carlos Verona, Andrea Bagioli, Eddie Dunbar, Jan Hirt, Javier Romo, Chris Harper, Harold Tejada, Harold Martín López, Marco Frigo, Bruno Armirail and Markel Beloki are all possible contenders.

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Jay Vine
** João Almeida, Tom Pidcock, Juan Ayuso, Harold Tejada
* Matteo Jorgenson, Jai Hindley, Felix Gall, Giulio Ciccone, Victor Langellotti, Andrea Bagioli, Javier Romo, Marco Frigo, Bruno Armirail, Markel Beloki

Pick: Marco Frigo

How: Solo win from the breakaway.