Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 4 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Breakaway, sprint or GC on hilly stage? Van der Poel and Van Aert to look for result

Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 is taking place from the 9th to the 15th of March and is, as is the case every year, one of the most important races of the spring. It not only provides sprinters, time trialists and climbers with golden opportunities in one of Italy's top events; but also provides the classics specialists with ideal races to prepare for their big goals. We preview stage 4, which is expected to start and finish at 10:25 and 15:45CET.

The race was created back in 1966 and as the name suggests, it takes rider riders from the Tyrrhenian sea all the way to the Adriatic; crossing central Italy from west to east with a variety of stages that suits all types of riders. Dino Zandegù won the first edition, but it didn't take long for big international names to join the race; even if Paris-Nice was always in the same slot, calendar-wise. The six consecutive GC wins of Roger de Vlaeminck from 1972 to 1977 boosted the race to the highest of levels possible, and lots of legends have cemented their name in the week-long stage-race.

Francesco Moser, Giuseppe Saronni, Joop Zoetemelk and Tony Rominger are riders who won throughout the 20th century; whilst this century a few editions did not have mountain stages which increased the variety of overall winners. Classics specialists such as Paolo Bettini and Óscar Freire won it at their prime; Fabian Cancellara won it back in 2008 and even Greg Van Avermaet took the title in 2016 most recently...

However the quality of the winners over the past 15 years is outerwordly, with many of the world's very best climbers winning the overall classification at the prime of their career. Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Primoz Roglic, Simon Yates, Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard... It's hard to image a better list. In 2025 Juan Ayuso inserted his name amongst the greats, winning the overall classification after winning the queen stage, dethrnoing a Filippo Ganna who showed the very best climbing legs of his career.

Stage 4 of the race is a stage that can be very tricky, and it is designed to be chaotic. The distance factor is once again added to the equation, with 213 kilometers on the menu. The high-altitude start in Tagliacozzo will also provide for an unusual downhill trend for the stage, finishing 700 meters below the start; but providing a lot of climbing nevertheless.

At the start there will be two climbs, both of which around 12 kilometers in distance and 5% in gradient. Hard enough to create a very strong group up front with climbers and potential GC contenders; but "easy" enough that non-pure climbers can also find themselves in front. It can give way to a dangerous mix of riders in this stage that features 2800 meters of climbing.

Four climbs then dictate the decisive part of the stage. 7.6Km at 4.5% (49Km to go); 3.1Km at 3.8% (28Km to go); 1.2Km at 5.3% (19Km to go); and these will likely give way to the hilltop that most riders will be looking out for, to attack or to prevent time losses.

It is 1.5 kilometers long at 8.4 kilometers and ends with just over 12 kilometers to go. Most of the way into Martiniscuro then is flat, allowing for tactical attacks in an arrival that should be quite fast.

It is a stage designed for chaos and it can go so many ways. There are long climbs early on, not proper mountains so the big GC men aren't going to have an outright battle there, but we may see raids. There aren't stages in this race designed to have massive gaps, and so any time won on the road can be important.

So much can happen. Isaac del Toro is the man to beat for GC, directly on the climbs he will not be distanced, but this isn't to be won or lost in that way. He will obviously not let Giulio Pellizzari go up the road, but BORA have both Primoz Roglic and Jai Hindley to work with and can attack early from, they don't have anything to lose. But it's the small gaps and the chaos that can prove to be an issue for UAE...

Bahrain have Santiago Buitrago and Antonio Tiberi, and we've got Ben Healy, Matteo Jorgenson, Tobias Johannessen, Michael Storer, Giulio Ciccone... And in reality so many other riders who can at some point attack and create pressure for UAE or other teams that would want to win the stage. But there has to be willpower, if few are willing to take risks then it will al go down to the final kilometers.

The stage can be won under other circumstances. A late attack, both on the climbs or final flat kilometers; or even a sprint between those that survive the climbs. If those long ascents early on aren't ridden too hard, and a breakaway doesn't succeed, then we should see this happen ultimately.

Mathieu van der Poel is of course the man most will look at, unless you're Belgian. The Dutchman will resist the climbs well I reckon and in a sprint he also carries good chances of a win, but he will be better off attacking if he can, or benefiting from a small group going up on the final explosive ascents. His main issue comes with late attacks on the flat, as he cannot respond to many obviously. Wout van Aert is slightly in the same situation, and I believe this time around he can indeed fight for the stage win. The form is good, positioning is the issue but it is not as crucial for this stage. I think he will try his luck in a sprint, he only needs it to come down to a sprint.

But it must be a sprint with the pace having gone to the maximum on the climbs. Otherwise he may have riders such as Tobias Lund Andresen, Paul Magnier or Arnaud de Lie also in the mix, and that would be an issue. Don't ignore Andrea Vendrame either, who is on stellar form and an underrated option to win here. Corbin Strong could also be an issue for other sprinters, even Jasper Philipsen if the form is sharp...

Meanwhile the likes of Filippo Ganna, Magnus Sheffield, Paul Lapeira, Jonas Abrahamsen or Ethan Hayter can be a nightmare if they find themselves off the front in the finale or even on the day's breakaway. There are plenty riders who can find themselves in favourable positions, but some even without their best form can be quite dangerous.

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Tobias Lund Andresen
** Paul Magnier, Isaac del Toro, Andrea Vendrame
* Primoz Roglic, Santiago Buitrago, Antonio Tiberi, Ben Healy, Tobias Johannessen, Matteo Jorgenson, Arnaud de Lie, Filippo Ganna, Jonas Abrahamsen, Magnus Sheffield, Paul Lapeira

Pick: Tobias Lund Andresen

How: Small group sprint