Michel Wuyts: "Tadej Pogacar goes to the Giro with final victory almost 85% certain"

Tadej Pogacar has opted for an ambitious Giro d'Italia/Tour de France double in 2024. Belgian analyst Michel Wuyts sees a Maglia Rosa triumph almost certain but for the Maillot Jaune, perhaps not.

"The fact that he goes to the Giro out of love for the country, the Italian news melted on the spot. The proximity of Slovenia is a great incentive, that promo line is charming," Wuyts says somewhat disbelievingly in conversation with HLN. "Not a word about the fact that he gets a six-zero bonus from Giro boss Vegni."

"It goes without saying that a Giro-Tour project arouses admiration. Only doable for the world's number one. Is this courage or rather hubris? Or has Pogacar thought judiciously?" Wuyts questions.

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The fact rival Jonas Vingegaard has seemingly had Pogacar's number at the Tour de France in recent years also plays a part though he believes. "His resilience was inciting, but in critical stages he went down without a chance. Off the wheel on the Granon and Hautacam, dull on the Col de la Loze. And then there was that shocking defeat in the time trial. To lose 1:38 to your only competitor in just 22 kilometres would make you dizzy," says Wuyts. "Vingegaard's hyper performance may flirt with the boundaries of what is acceptable, but as a competitor you draw conclusions from it. As a time trialist, Pogacar is miles behind Vingegaard. You can't correct that in wind tunnels. And now the 2024 Tour will include two tough time trials."

"'How does Pogacar fill that difference against the equivalent climber Vingegaard? Yes, Pogacar is adventurous, but also smart enough to choose an alternative," continues Wuyts' analysis. "Pogacar goes to the Giro with final victory almost 85% certain. With the Giro in hand, the bleeding in the Tour becomes less painful."

"The competitors are Geraint Thomas, Nairo Quintana, Simon Yates and – I'm already feeling deep – Giulio Ciccone," concludes the Belgian. "These lesser rascals only have the hope of some Slovenian compassion. In the Giro, Pogacar can build an economic lead uphill, but if nothing happens to Vingegaard and his Yellow Bees, the dreams will be a fraud anyway."