Former Tour de France stage winner believes Pedersen will defeat Pogacar and Van der Poel at Milano-Sanremo: "He knows he's fast, even if other sprinters are too"

As cycling’s Monument season begins with Milano-Sanremo, former Tour de France stage winner Cyril Saugrain has shared his thoughts on the riders to watch and the key storylines heading into the first major one-day race of 2025. Speaking to Cyclism’Actu, the 51-year-old RTBF consultant reflected on the recent stage races and outlined why he believes this year’s Sanremo could be especially explosive.

Looking back at Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico, Saugrain was struck by both the intensity of the racing and the brutality of the conditions.

“We're sure that the weather at Paris-Nice will definitely leave some mark on our bodies. We had a race that, because of this weather, was made even more difficult. We know there are some men in good shape. I was impressed by Mathieu Van Der Poel in Tirreno-Adriatico, but also by Mads Pedersen in Paris-Nice. He handles difficult weather conditions quite well, which may have helped him. All of this promises to be a spectacular Milano-Sanremo. I can't wait for this weekend!”

Asked to name his favourite for the race, Saugrain didn’t hesitate. Pedersen, he believes, is the rider to beat, and it’s not just because of his recent form.

“If I had to name one, I would bet on Mads Pedersen, because he really impressed me. He's a rider who has Milano-Sanremo in mind. He knows he's fast, even if other sprinters are too.”

That said, Saugrain is just as intrigued by the tactical approach Tadej Pogacar might take, especially considering how previous editions have unfolded.

“What's fascinating this year is the presence of a cycling virtuoso like Tadej Pogacar. He knows he has to make the race difficult to hope to win. We saw it at the Tour of Flanders a few years ago: the first time, he was beaten by Van Der Poel in the sprint because he hadn't toughened up the race enough. The following year, he attacked several times and finally made Van Der Poel crack.”

If Pogacar wants to stand on the top step in Sanremo, Saugrain expects him to lean into a similar approach.

“I expect a similar strategy at Milan-San Remo. Pogacar and UAE could toughen up the race on the 'capi' and the Cipressa to tire out the sprinters before the Poggio. This could be their only option against faster riders like Philipsen or Pedersen.”

One of the major talking points heading into this weekend is the absence of Wout van Aert. Saugrain, however, believes the decision is part of a calculated effort to time his peak for later targets.

“I'd rather side with the patient crowd. Wout Van Aert has often started his seasons with a bang, winning the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad or Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. But this year, he seems to be focusing on a gradual build-up to reach his peak form at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix.”

He credits Van Aert’s team, Visma | Lease a Bike, for taking a data-driven approach to his season planning.

“The Visma | Lease a Bike team is very focused on physical preparation. They analysed his past performances and probably concluded that he was sometimes fit too early. This year, the goal is to get him to 100% fitness for the two Flemish classics. We'll see if this strategy works.”

Saugrain also touched on Remco Evenepoel’s situation as the Belgian star continues to build form following his winter injury. In his view, it’s more important for Evenepoel to focus on the long-term goal (the Tour de France) than to rush back to full fitness.

“I think too often we expect too much too soon. His main goal is the Tour de France. He mustn't rush things. Winning Liège-Bastogne-Liège a third time would be wonderful, but it's not a top priority. Remco knows he'll be competing against Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar in the Tour. He's already finished on the podium and now wants to fight for victory.

“To do that, he needs to manage his progression and arrive at 100% for the Tour de France. It's better to avoid peaking too early and dropping off in July.”