ANALYSIS | UAE's Milano-Sanremo plan B that no one is talking about and could drive Mathieu van der Poel crazy

When it comes to the style of racing and the climbs, as well as recent performances, Mathieu van der Poel is considered the favourite. However, the true star of this Saturday's Milano-Sanremo, on March 22, will once again be Tadej Pogacar.

The Slovenian has conquered just about everything in his career so far. The toughest challenge he faced was at the Tour of Flanders, where he finally broke van der Poel's resistance on a steep hill with double-digit gradients—something he won't encounter in the Classicissima.

Last year, UAE Team Emirates - XRG tried to claim victory by setting a brutal pace on the Cipressa, hoping to create the perfect moment for Pogacar to launch a decisive attack, but it never materialized. This year, they appear to be sticking to that strategy, but with a stronger lineup (including Tim Wellens, Nils Politt, Jhonatan Narvaez, Domen Novak, Vegard Stake Laengen, and Isaac Del Toro), aiming to complete the climb in under 9 minutes.

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If that doesn't work, if Pogacar doesn't make his move there, it will be tough to imagine him breaking away on the Poggio. While it's a tough climb, it’s not quite the same as a hill or a pass, and van der Poel (along with others) has proven in recent years that he can hold his own against Pogacar’s raw power on that ascent.

In fact, part of Van der Poel's strategy to overcome Pogacar has been to team up with Jasper Philipsen, as we saw last year—Van der Poel would do the hard work, and Philipsen would deliver the finishing blow.

Philipsen outsprinted Pogacar to take the Milano-Sanremo win in 2024

However, this year, Philipsen arrives following a tough crash at the Nokere Koerse, and it’s hard to imagine him lasting through almost 300 km to challenge UAE once again. On the other hand, UAE still has a secret weapon to challenge Alpecin.

That weapon is Jhonatan Narváez, an exceptional rider who has been improving steadily and is incredibly fast in smaller finishes. We could easily see him outpacing van der Poel at any given moment. With UAE’s strategy clearly centered around Pogacar, they might be able to rely on Narváez as a backup plan—especially if the climbs don’t take their toll and a larger group than expected reaches the Poggio descent.

While all eyes will undoubtedly be on Pogacar and Van der Poel, it’s Narváez who could quietly play a pivotal role in this year’s Milano-Sanremo. With his growing form and speed in the decisive, smaller finishes, Narváez could be the unexpected disruptor—either as a key support rider or even a solo challenger to the top contenders. In a race as unpredictable as this, it’s often the unsung hero who turns the tide, and Narváez might just be the one to make that decisive move when the moment comes. Keep an eye on him—his quiet potential could be the spark that sets the race alight.

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