PREVIEW | Milano-Sanremo 2025 - Will Tadej Pogacar finally win monument number 4?
Cycling
On the 22nd of March, the World Tour peloton returns to what is the longest race in professional road cycling. Milano-Sanremo, the first monument of the season, is one of the most tense races in the entire calendar and always provides a dramatic finale. We preview the race ahead.
The biggest pro race in the calendar! 288 kilometers (plus neutral start) will heavily weigh on everyone’s legs by the end, which has it’s usual features. The race’s traditional route through the Ligurian sea, includes the Tre Capi. No important attacks will come here, however the teams looking to make damage on the climbs may look to push the pace.
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Capo Mele – 1,9Km; 4.2%; 52Km to go
Capo Cerve – 1.9Km; 2.8%; 47.4Km to go
Capo Berta – 1.8Km; 6.7%; 39Km to go
Quickly the riders will move on to the final and decisive features.
The Cipressa is 5.6Km at an average gradient of 4.1% it doesn’t make for a particularly hard climb, but taking into account when the riders top it they’ll have over 6 hours of racing. It doesn’t usually see attacks, but it is a familiar image to see the teams with puncheurs, climbers and punchy sprinters to come to the front and push the pace, this year the climbers too.
The purest sprinters try to remain hidden, but always well positioned as the descent from Cipressa is very technical, so not only will there be the teams trying to suffocate the sprinters early on as there will be the fight for positioning before the climb and in the summit of it, making for a very nervous and fast section of the race.
And the final climb is the Poggio di Sanremo, the hardest easy climb in the world! Like everything in this race, it is influenced by the distance, 282Km raced at the summit. It is mostly a climb in false flat roads, starting with a set of bends still very near the sea, but in the last 800 meters the steepest ramp in it comes, a short one but 8% of gradient, and it’s a place regularly chosen by riders to make a final attack.
And just as important as the climb is the descent, it’s quite a technical one which allows some recovering after the climb, and it’s a big threat if anyone gets to the bottom solo, no surprise as in the base of it there are only 2200 meters to the line. This is where Matej Mohoric made his decisive attack in 2022 to victory.
The Via Roma will be the place where the winner will be crowned. The finish is familiar already, a flat straightforward road meaning leadouts and chasing are still very possible which is an advantage for the sprinters, but for that they need good support and a smart sense of positioning. And remember, a sprint after 7 hours of racing is different than after 4/5.
The Weather
The weather definitely won't be ideal. There is a small chance of rain early in the day, mostly before arriving close to the season, but it's the wind that will then also be felt. It will be coming from the east and that will be good news for everyone who wants to make the race hard, and also for fans who want an explosive race.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - No point in beating around the bush. Pogacar is the headliner in this race and he will be the one everyone will be looking at. It is a huge race, one that he has not won, but he wants to and after a couple of near-misses, UAE has finally decided to go all-in in forming the perfect lineup and plan to take the victory. Waiting and attacking the Poggio again is an option, but I would say not the most likely. I think UAE will want to push the pace quite hard in the Tre Capi but specially the last one to the absolute limit.
Isaac del Toro and Tim Wellens are in formidable form and are men to push up the Cipressa. Jhonatan Narváez himself would be a golden favourite to win here if he has his best form and legs, but he will be here to support. If on a perfect day, UAE may decide to launch him on the attack at Cipressa instead. But UAE will push the Tre Capi and Cipressa to the limit, break the group above all so that it's hard to organize a chase, and then Pogacar attacks Cipressa. Bad weather, a tailwind up until Poggio... It is hard to have better conditions to do this and although many still say it's impossible or illogical, this man has proven that doing these solo efforts is what he thrives in.
Mathieu van der Poel - The rest of the field will be looking at UAE and racing accordingly. I believe pretty much no-one will be thinking of attacking Cipressa, but if he does then a few riders will make their own moves and try to take advantage of the chaos. Mathieu van der Poel likely won't, he will likely want to tackle the Poggio as fresh as possible because on that climb no-one can drop him. Form is very good. Jasper Philipsen, defending champion, will not likely be a big card this year because the weather favours the climbers and the crash at Nokere Koerse put his participation into question after a hand injury.
Lidl-Trek - A tremendous lineup with the likes of former winner Jasper Stuyven and Andrea Bagioli who on their best day are victory contenders, but here likely domestiques. Giulio Ciccone is the big surprise in the lineup and I believe he is one of the men who will want to follow Pogacar if he attacks in Cipressa - and he might be one of the few who may be able to. Lidl has a team fit for a conservative race, but they will have to adapt to what will likely be the opposite. Mads Pedersen is on crazy climb form and legitimately he is a big contender to win this race currently. And Jonathan Milan, an incredible sprinter but also a man who can do climbs like this very well, will have a hard time if UAE really push the pace hard but he remains an option.
Filippo Ganna - The Italian is in my eyes in the form of his life and I think he is destined to be underated for this race. He was second in 2023 proving already that he can win here, and with his current legs he is an insane danger - a man who can push mind-boggling watts and in these non-steep climbs it can make him as fast as Pogacar and van der Poel. He doesn't have the explosion, but he does have a very strong sprint and above all the capacity to stay away if he goes solo at any point. INEOS have the likes of Ben Turner and a few other quality riders backing him up.
Tom Pidcock - Ordinarily it wouldn't be the kind of race where I'd put him amongst the main favourites (because the climbs aren't steep and it's also an endurance-based race) but his current form is crazy. Motivation and form are in place for the Briton... Positioning is important but let's be honest at no point will Q36.5 have to be putting on a chase, so it will be a matter of getting him to Cipressa. The climbs don't fit him perfectly but going downhill this man is a machine and can legitimately make the race-deciding difference.
BORA - BORA have four riders who deserve a good mention, and because of this depth it's a dangerous team (although none give full confidence into the race). Danny van Poppel is a good card as a sprinter who can survive climbs; Laurence Pithie is a good rider for a conservative race but a very fast Poggio; whilst Roger Adrià and Maxim van Gils come in as riders who would benefit from a very hard race in all climbs. All four riders come in with different preparations and have different attributes which means they fit in all scenarios.
This is a race with tremendous depth, it's the first monument of the season and many teams want to leave an impression. However perhaps most importantly, it's a race where endurance and tactics matter a lot, so it's definitely not impossible to see a few surprises. However there are a few names that due to their history, current form of qualities, do deserve their names more notably mentioned.
Of course we have in Julian Alaphilippe a former winner of this race, and he will lead a Tudor that has been flying this year. The Frenchman will be the leader in a team with a few options... He hasn't been having the legs to match the best but he is very experienced and an expert in this kind of race so he can absolutely be up there. In Matej Mohoric we have another, although the Slovenian isn't at his best and will always depend on a downhill to take a victory. We have a few riders like Stefan Küng and Alberto Bettiol who are more classics specialists and will want an easy race before the Poggio... And on the opposite side we will have riders hoping for all-out climbing tests like Kévin Vauquelin, Neilson Powless, Tobias Johannessen and AG2R duo Aurélien Paret-Peintre and Bastien Tronchon.
On the opposite side we have a few sprinters or riders who can definitely climb but will want it to, in some way or another, come down to a sprint for the first spots. We can't exclude local man Michael Matthews from fight, it is a race tailor-made to him and he was second last year. In regular conditions Magnus Cort Nielsen will be a danger man for the day, and we will have to also pay a lot of attention to the Visma men Olav Kooij and Axel Zingle who on their best day can do climbs like this extremely well. Alex Aranburu, Vincenzo Albanese, Biniam Girmay, Pascal Ackermann, Corbin Strong, Ivan Garcia Cortina and Rick Pluimers.
Prediction Milano-Sanremo 2025:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel
** Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, Tom Pidcock
* Jonathan Milan, Roger Adria, Maxim van Gils, Matej Mohoric, Stefan Küng, Julian Alaphilippe, Alberto Bettiol, Michael Matthews, Olav Kooij, Axel Zingle, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Tim Wellens, Jhonatan Narváez
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
How: I think UAE have a fixed plan and that it will work. Any other wouldn't be able to do the same, but I actually think UAE will manage to shred the peloton before and during Cipressa, and he will then solo to victory.
Original: Rúben Silva
Pavia, are you ready to relive the show?👀
— Milano Sanremo (@Milano_Sanremo) March 18, 2025
See you on Friday, March 21st at 5 pm!
Pavia, sei pronta a rivivere lo show? 👀
Ci vediamo venerdì 21 Marzo alle 17!#MilanoSanremo presented by @CA_Ita pic.twitter.com/5lnFlmh1pY
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Latest comments
- Great race! Tadej did everything he could to win but MVP showed why he's so great in the classics. There were no losers on the final podium.awp22-03-2025
- To me he lost the race when he wasn’t able to drop Van der Poel on either of the climbs. He will never beat him in a sprint. If the two go to the line together, Tadej loses.mij22-03-2025
- Sadly he lost the race when he let VDP get a small gap in the final 200 meters - maybe if he works on sprint tactics ? Similar thing happened at FlandersCrashjames22-03-2025
- It's better to win Tour de France than any race. For sure Pogi, losing or podium is not on his. He's face wanting to destroy ALL but MVDP is such a great champion 👏
James2631822-03-2025 - perfect description!
maria2024202422-03-2025 - Tadej awesome, as usual, he's a blessing to the cycling, always fighting, trying all kind of races. His team... mmmm. Fantastic Ganna! and enormous Mathieu. What a race!maria2024202422-03-2025
- That is an awesome podium alright. King of the classics, time trial demi-god, and the best all round road ridermobk22-03-2025
- Possibly the best MSR ever, Chapeau to each of the three, an incredible race to watch!slappers6622-03-2025
- Now that was an entertaining and exciting race finale. Chapeau to Mathieu on another MSR victory.
santiagobenites22-03-2025 - Well that was boring and predictable. Let's hope that the men's race is a little more exciting.santiagobenites22-03-2025