ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar's top 5 rivals to win Milano-Sanremo 2025
Cycling
The first monument of the year lands in the cycling season with much expectation. Milano-Sanremo 2025 takes place this Saturday, with one of its best narratives in recent years.
Tadej Pogacar arrives as the main star of the list of participants. The Slovenian has not yet won this race, and it is one of his main goals for the whole course. However, the UAE star will not have it easy. Names like Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen, Tom Pidcock, Filippo Ganna, Michael Matthews, Jasper Philipsen, Olav Kooij, Biniam Girmay, Maxim van Gils, Matej Mohoric, Julian Alaphilippe,..., will make the race difficult for him at the highest levels of demand.
In fact, Pogacar is not even the top favourite to win. For that reason, in this article we analyze the 5 big rivals that the UAE Team Emirates - XRG superstar will have to win the Milano-Sanremo for the first time. It is worth mentioning that Philipsen does not enter here, because, although he has confirmed that he will be at the start, the Belgian has just suffered a crash in the Nokere Koerse last Wednesday, and his form is not the best. If he were at 100%, he would certainly be among the Slovenian's top 5 contenders.
1. Mathieu van der Poel
The great candidate for victory. The Dutchman is considered the only rider capable of beating Tadej Pogacar in the most important one-day races of the calendar. The Cipressa and Poggio climbs are not hard enough for the Slovenian to leave Van der Poel. In the last few years he tried and tried, and never was he able to do it.
Actually, Pogacar will have a chance if he manages to go solo. That's why it's so difficult for him. Arriving with a reduced group of very fast men makes things very difficult for him. And that's also why the plan that has been talked about in UAE is to do Cipressa in less than 9 minutes, which would be barbaric. But then, to beat Mathieu van der Poel, he should leave him on the Poggio, which is the hardest.
2. Mads Pedersen
The Lidl-Trek star is another strong contender for victory. The Dane will have the chance to win in a reduced bunch sprint. His task will be to get through Cipressa and Poggio with enough fuel, and in the leading group. There is no reason to doubt the level of Pedersen, who in fact will arrive at Milano-Sanremo in spectacular form. In Paris-Nice he was one of the stars of the Race to the Sun. He won an incredible stage, took the points classification, and on the last day led a solo breakaway where only a final wall kept him out of the fight to win yet another stage.
3. Tom Pidcock
Tom Pidcock's advantage for Milano-Sanremo is his great climbing and sprinting ability. In the finish, the Brit is potentially faster than Pogacar. At Strade Bianche he was the only one to follow the Slovenian's first attack, with which he led until 19 km to the finish, where a second attack by Pogacar in the penultimate sector of sterrato already sentenced him. With the low demands of Cipressa and Poggio, Pidcock will have to focus on following the Slovenian and Mathieu van der Poel, as advised by Vincenzo Nibali.
4. Filippo Ganna
In one of his best moments of form, Ganna arrives at Milano-Sanremo as another big favourite. In Tirreno Adriatico he finished second overall, only behind Juan Ayuso and after keeping the maglia azzurra from the first stage to the last. After having been second in this same race in 2023, the Milano-Sanremo course seems ideal for his characteristics. This could be the victory that marks a turning point in his career and consolidates him as one of the best classics riders in the world.
5. Michael Matthews
The Jayco-AlUla rider and Tadej Pogacar are great friends, perhaps the best in the peloton who are not teammates. But this Saturday the Australian will be one of the riders the Slovenian won't even want to see in the paint. Last year, Matthews finished 2nd in the reduced sprint with Jasper Philipsen, winner, and Pogacar himself, 3rd. At 34 years old, Michael Matthews will be looking for victory in his 12th appearance at Milano-Sanremo. In addition to his second place in 2024, he finished 3rd in 2015 and 2020. If he manages to arrive in the leading group, he will be another favourite to win the sprint to the finish.
📍 𝐶𝑖𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑎, 𝑃𝑜𝑔𝑔𝑖𝑜.
— Milano Sanremo (@Milano_Sanremo) March 20, 2025
🖊️ History.
📍 𝐶𝑖𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑎, 𝑃𝑜𝑔𝑔𝑖𝑜.
🖊️ Storia.
#MilanoSanremo | #SanremoWomen presented by @CA_Ita pic.twitter.com/p3q37BWQX0
Just in
Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter today!
Popular news
Latest comments
- Two riders unlike any others over the past few decades, during this era of carb fueling, seems relevant to me.RidesHills23-03-2025
- Funny that they shorten women’s races but have no qualms about letting U23 do the same distances.Jumpyjohn23-03-2025
- Why is that relevant when discussing speed?Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- But he wasn’t the only one ;-)Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- Obviously the questions are more important to some here than to them or the team so I suggest looking for answers instead of asking questions between ourselves. We’ll probably get them unless someone actually goes to ask the protagonists themselves. Here are some starters : They like riding together; they have their own rivalry that helps bring out the best in both; they might get more points helping each other compared to racing separate races. In any case, unless we hear MJ complaining about it, I don’t think it’s going to change, it’s the Sepp Kuss syndrome all over again, fans lobbying against the will of the rider.Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- Mine goes to MVDP for entertaining us all year round :-) Stellar race, Ganna impressive in his own way as many predicted after some oddly lacklustre times.Mistermaumau23-03-2025
- i remember when not too long ago mathieu was regarded as a real tactical knucklehead. i’m not sure that was ever quite accurate, but it’s certainly the case that over the years he has become a real master tactician. in the biggest races, van der poel rarely makes choices that don’t fully optimize every specific advantage he has.OCexile23-03-2025
- Whatever the result, I believe the strategy by UAE to launch Pogacar was absolutely the right one. Unfortunately, they just were not able to execute it the way they must have planned, being all over the place at the start of the Cipressa.Cooldude23-03-2025
- They are without doubt not just the best two classics riders of this generation, but amongst the best of all time. MvdP is more suited to MSR and PR (which Pog has yet to race), while Pog is now almost untouchable at LBL and Lombardia. RVV is the only one where both basically have an equal chance to win.Cooldude23-03-2025
- bravissima!
maria2024202423-03-2025