DISCUSSION Tour de France Stage 18 | Is Pogacar running out of gas? Has Visma missed a golden opportunity?

The 18th stage of the Tour de France was set to provide an extraordinary spectacle. Featuring three high-category climbs—Col du Glandon, La Madeleine, and Col de la Loze—this stage was poised to be the highlight of this year's Tour de France. Pogacar arrived as the undisputed yellow jersey, with over 4 minutes margin over Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane knew that he had to take risks if he wanted to have a shot at winning the race.

Together with his team, he rode very aggressively from the beginning of the stage. The goal was clear, team Visma wanted to set a hard pace to weaken UAE and then launch an attack to make Pogacar crack at some point in the stage.

The execution was not perfect, though. Pogacar did not explode, and Vingegaard was not able to create differences. After the stage finished, many cycling experts were wondering if Visma’s tactics were the right ones for this stage, and if Pogacar and Vingegaard are in a worse shape than they were a few days ago.

Vingegaard was unable to launch any attack during the last climb, and Pogacar did not seem as ambitious as other times. He allowed Ben O’Connor to obtain a considerable gap at the beginning of the Col de la Loze, and the Jayco rider won the stage with ease. Neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard displayed the dominant performances we have come to expect from them.

Once the stage finished, we asked some of our writers to share their thoughts and main takeaways about what happened today.

With over 5,000 meters of elevation, the queen stage to the rooftop of the Tour de France promised fireworks — and for 70 kilometers before the finish, it delivered, especially for those awaiting the much-anticipated duel between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar. By then, Visma had already played all its cards. The efforts of Jorgenson, Wout van Aert, Simon Yates, and Sepp Kuss — followed by Vingegaard’s attack — amounted to nothing.

Vingegaard found himself out front with a spent Jorgenson, while Pogacar remained locked to his wheel. The situation looked so futile that both Tour favorites eased off entirely in the valley leading to the Col de la Loze. The stage played out very differently for those following the battle between Florian Lipowitz and Oscar Onley, and the tactics of Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe, whose tactics turned out to be very questionable.

It became a disastrous day for Lipowitz while it all looked so bright. When Vingegaard attacked, Lipowitz — third overall — appeared to be capable of following. He managed to stay within ten meters on the Col de la Madeleine for several hundred meters before eventually dropping off. Yet at that moment, nothing was lost: his lead over Onley kept growing, eventually hitting the two-minute mark.

Then came a lull in the valley. Arensman and Lipowitz bridged back to a group that included Pogacar, Rubio, Jorgenson, Roglic, Ben O'Connor, Gall, and Vingegaard. His gap to Onley had ballooned to nearly 2:45. Vingegaard covered a few moves from Gall, and O'Connor launched his own attack — just as Roglic seemed to pause for a bathroom break. Lipowitz had just made a massive effort to rejoin this elite group.

What happened next is unclear. Did Red Bull – BORA send Lipowitz forward? Was it Roglic’s call? Or was it Lipowitz’s own inexperience? Whatever the reason, the strategy collapsed completely. With Lipowitz up the road, Roglic no longer had to chase — but that also meant nobody controlled the pace. Vingegaard had Jorgenson to guide him. Pogacar sat still, observing. Red Bull had boxed itself in tactically by letting the breakaway go (O'Connor, Rubio, and Jorgenson).

None of the other contenders responded, and Onley bridged back — along with a group that included even Vauquelin, who had been over four minutes behind Lipowitz earlier! By the foot of the Col de la Loze, Lipowitz was more than a minute behind the leading trio and just two minutes ahead of Onley and Vauquelin, who had safely returned to the Pogacar–Roglic–Vingegaard group.

The young German had animated the race — that much was clear. The rider earning more than ten times his salary (Roglic) certainly hadn’t. BORA had placed all responsibility on the young German. A costly and inexcusable mistake — especially with a 26-kilometer ascent still ahead. In the end, Lipowitz managed to save his third place by a mere 22 seconds. How Red Bull threw this away is difficult to explain. I think only Primoz Roglic knows the answer..  

A stage that was really shaping up to be a queen stage until the entrance to Col de La Loze. The day began with Lidl-Trek in control, leading Milan to score 20 points in the intermediate sprint. A new race began and a very interesting breakaway formed at the front, with names such as Roglic and Gall.

Visma wanted to make the race tougher on Col de la Madeleine, but, in my opinion, they rushed it. Vingegaard attacked too early, 71 km from the finish line, Pogacar responded, authentically, ‘like a boss’, they quickly caught up with the breakaway and Jorgenson started to pull, but the next tactical error came when the American attacked on the descent, along with O'Connor and Rubio.

Pogacar and Vingegaard exchanged glances and allowed Lipowitz and the Onley/Vauquelin group, which included three UAE riders, to rejoin, giving the front trio a big advantage. On the final climb, Jorgenson was limited and was the first to give way. O'Connor saw that he was the strongest and attacked 16 km from the finish.

Visma faded into nothingness and it was the leader's team that took the lead, with Narváez and Adam Yates. Lipowitz gave way and Roglic did not wait for his teammate. Why? To give way 1 km later, a bad move by the Slovenian, which could cost Red Bull a place on the podium, as Onley closed in.

The stage victory did not escape the Jayco cyclist, who returns to victory in the Tour four years later. O'Connor also enters the top 10. Pogacar counterattacked Vingegaard and still gained 11 seconds on him. If he had attacked earlier, he would have gained more time. He has the Tour in the bag!

I think Visma played their cards right with an ideal leadout on the Madeleine and a powerful attack following it, with Jorgenson in front, but again, it matters too little when they face a Pogacar that is stronger. All he had to do, which of course was a hard task, was follow Vingegaard all day long. He succeeded, so he kept yellow and baring a crack he will virtually win the Tour tomorrow.

I would understand an angry Gall and Arensman tonight after being chased down on flat roads by Roglic, Vingegaard and Pogacar; I think it was a good gamble but it was ultimately a big loss for BORA who had all the cards but ended up losing serious time to Oscar Onley; Sergio Higuita continues to ride an almost invisible but incredible Tour climbing wise; and I'm happy to see Ben O'Connor take a victory, specially one at this level, after such a hard race where Jayco has been going throug hell.

Since Hautacam, Tadej Pogacar's Tour de France has been rather strange in my opinion. There are several options I have in my mind, but the gap in the time trial to Jonas Vingegaard was not lethal and after that, he has not been able to let go except in the stage finishes.

Either he feels he has already won the Tour and is controlling the gap and taking advantage of his speed to take seconds at the finish, or he just doesn't have the best legs of his life. But with the ambition he's always shown us, it seems surprising that he's not going for stage wins that he has in hand. Maybe he's noticed the animosity in the peloton and doesn't want to get on bad terms with rivals, but there's also Mark Cavendish's record in his sights.

Jonas Vingegaard, meanwhile, said he would be willing to lose second place to try to win the Tour. He has tried, but not hard enough in my opinion. His teammates worked like crazy for him, but then he didn't know how to finish and ended up losing time at the finish line once again to Pogacar.

As for the winner of the stage, Ben O'Connor, well done. He is proving to be one of the best stage chasers in recent months. Second in the final overall classification of the Vuelta a España and silver medalist at the World Championships in Zurich last year, stage winner in the three Grand Tours, he is forging a more than interesting track record.

Finally, it is worth mentioning the debacle of Spanish cycling on this day. Carlos Rodríguez did not take the start and Enric Mas abandoned in the middle of the stage. The two best Spanish climbers and the two best hopes for the general classification in this Tour were out on the same day. The face for Movistar Team was put on by Einer Rubio, who fought until the end and crossed the finish line in fifth position.

Madeleine was such an exciting moment that I actually turned on TV to see how the situation plays out. In the end, I took a nap on my sofa and missed the arrival of GC leaders - but it feels as if I haven't missed anything important. Frankly, the valley between Madeleine and Loze was too long to support any long range attacks. And Pogacar is more than happy to save his legs - maybe thinking about Vuelta already. Vingegaard probably had tomorrow's stage in mind too. But he needs to take almost five mountains on La Plagne. Can he? Most likely no.

The big story of today need to be the dilemma of RB Bora. It's clear the ambition is to have Lipowitz and Roglic in 3rd and 4th overall, but tactically speaking, they're making the worst decisions possible to achieve that. When they crested Madeleine with Lipowitz 30 seconds behind front group and Onley further 2 minutes down, Roglic could've pulled back to help Lipowitz bridge the gap.

He could've attacked the group right there and potentially go with O'Connor, Rubio and Jorgenson - Pogacar and Vingegaard would allow him to go. Okay, so he chose to wait for Lipowitz. But once he got back, the two Bora riders should've spoken to each other and, had one of them, or even both pulled the group at a moderate pace, Onley would've never come back to the front and both would profit in GC.

But this way, Roglic remains far off the podium without achieving anything today and Lipowitz with chasse pattate on Loze almost lost the valuable podium spot. Unless Bora learn their lesson and approach the race differently, Oscar Onley will jump onto the podium tomorrow even though he may not have been the third best rider of this Tour.

Visma’s tactics were not surprising. The team did what they’ve been doing this whole Tour de France: sending one strong climber to the breakaway (today it was Jorgenson’s turn), and set a hard pace in the peloton from the beginning of the stage. The team knew that there was a slight possibility of winning the Tour, and it all came down to cracking Pogacar, so they had to try a bold attack.

Vingegaard tried it with 71 km to go, but Pogacar was just too strong once again. Visma’s tactics were good, and the execution of the strategy was also quite decent. The problem was that Jonas did not have the legs to beat Pogacar, and he has not had the legs to do so any single day; that is why Pogacar holds a 4-minute lead.

The Dane had another golden opportunity in the Col de la Loze, the last climb of the day. Jorgenson was ahead of him and Pogacar, after another intelligent tactical movement (he followed O’Connor’s attack), but Jonas did not even try to attack Tadej one single time. This shows that he did not have the legs.

Vingegaard said in an interview earlier in the Tour that he would do whatever it takes to fight for the yellow jersey, even if that implied taking unnecessary risks and losing the podium. So, he could have tried to attack Pogacar more often, but he simply knew it wouldn’t be worth it, and he was just satisfied with the second position.

At this point, we just have to congratulate Jonas and team Visma for the amazing spectacle they have delivered to us. They have remained true to their aggressive style since the very first stage of the Tour, and they have never lost faith in winning the Tour, so chapeau to them.

As for Pogacar, many fans are wondering what’s going on with the Slovenian superstar. After his fourth stage win in the time-trial, everyone took for granted that he would grab at least two or three more stage wins, and since then, the breakaway has taken three victories in the mountain stages.

Some people may argue that Pogacar is lacking ambition, and he wants to ride conservatively to avoid cracking in any of the mountain stages. But the truth is, he was not able to drop Vingegaard when he attacked two days ago in Mont Ventoux, and he has not conveyed the same sense of superiority as in previous stages.

My read of the situation is this: Pogacar seems fully aware that he doesn’t have the same physical freshness he showed during the first and second weeks. At the same time, he’s clearly determined not to risk a repeat of previous editions where he cracked and lost significant time. We will never know what would have happened if he had tried to attack Vingegaard during the last climb, but my take is that he would have succeeded in opening a gap.

Another team whose strategies deserve to be deeply analyzed is Red Bull Bora. Roglic’s attack caught all of us off guard. I don’t think many could have predicted this movement, but it made a lot of sense, after all. Roglic was 5th in the GC. He was showing good form, and he could be very helpful for Lipowitz by staying at the front.

There is just one aspect that confused me, and it was the fact that Roglic did not help Lipowitz during the final climb. The German rider was visibly struggling after he was caught by the peloton, and Roglic did not wait for him when he got dropped. At the end of the day, Lipowitz is still in third position, but Oscar Onley is just 22 seconds behind him.

The last rider that deserves my mention is Ben O’Connor. Hats off to him for his performance today. He was the most intelligent rider in the breakaway, and at the same time, he was the one to have the best legs. Once Pogacar and Vingegaard connected with the breakaway during the descent to the Col de la Madeleine, it was difficult to think that any other rider other than the Slovenian or the Dane would win. Ben executed his move brilliantly by attacking in the flat section before the last climb, and it proved to be the best decision.