DISCUSSION Tour de France Stage 12 | Has Pogacar just ended the Tour de France? Is Lipowitz a menace to Vingegaard and Remco’s podium aspirations?

Stage 12 of the Tour de France will go down as one of the most iconic stages in recent history. After a first week of the race with only flat and hilly stages, the high mountains came into play. The peloton faced the first of the three stages that make up the triptych of the Pyrenees.

Ben Healy arrived as the general classification leader, and he had the difficult task of defending his yellow jersey against the likes of Pogacar, Vingegaard, and co. For Pogacar, this stage had a special significance, as the Hautacam was the climb where he lost to Vingegaard back in the 2022 Tour de France, and the race was decided in favour of the Dane. The Slovenian wanted to redeem himself and prove to the world that he was in excellent shape, after the inopportune crash he suffered during stage 11.

Team Visma | Lease a Bike was looking to storm the yellow jersey after countless attempts at attacking Pogacar in the stages before this one. The whole team was committed to helping Jonas in what was expected to be a historic battle.

The stage started at full speed, and up to 52 riders were part of a breakaway that was formed early on. It was practically an entire peloton that was going for the stage victory. However, the peloton had other plans. Uno-X and UAE took matters into their own hands and started to pull aggressively in the peloton. The gap was never above 3 minutes, and the peloton arrived at the Col des Bordères with just 3 riders in front of them: Armirail, Skjelmose, and Michael Woods.

In Hautacam, Pogacar launched a deadly attack, went solo, and won the stage, beating Vingegaard by more than 2 minutes. Florian Lipowitz completed the podium, and riders like Evenepoel or Roglic lost a big amount of time, although the Belgian recovered very well after cracking early on, with more than 50 km to go.

So, after watching Pogacar’s performance, can we say the Tour de France is over? Will other contenders like Lipowitz storm into the podium? We have asked some of our writers to share their thoughts and main takeaways about what happened today.

Overall, pretty interesting stage. It was very, very surprising to see 50 riders in the breakaway, and it was nice to see Ineos putting many men in there, with Carlos Rodriguez as well in the front. But ultimately, when they got to the first climb of the day, there was nothing happening.

I didn't see Rodriguez for the final part of the stage at all, and the breakaway ended up having zero influence on the outcome of the stage.

GC-wise, you have Visma pushing, and the plan was clear: make it very hard from early on, but as soon as Matteo Jorgensen started to crack, they changed their plans fully.

I think, although I would always prefer the spectacle, that was the right choice because Evenepoel was dropped, Healy was dropped, Vauquelin was in difficulties, and Jorgenson was legitimately going into the podium provisionally.

But in the end, it ended up going in Pogacar's favor. The race was just not hard enough to drain his explosiveness, and UAE did their classic tactics in the final climb to really use Narváez to create the gaps, and they nailed it.

There was no chance for the rest, and the 2 minutes gap is kind of what you'd expect. You're almost having like a rerun of the Dauphine.

Well, this was one hell of a stage. Non-stop spectacle from start to finish. I was quite surprised to see such a big breakaway, and the race situation was quite dangerous given the big names involved on the break and the ammount of team mates they had with them.

My initial thought was that this was going to make it difficult for UAE to chase the break, as we could easily be having Nils Politt chasing a bit group of 50 people and would eventually result in the gap increasing. But that's not how it went was it? There was cooperation mainly from Visma, EF and Uno-X on the chase during the flat section which kept the break under control.

And starting the Soulon with a short gap there was only 1 scenario which i expected: Peloton wins! Now for the execution... That was a different show! Visma speeded up on the Soulon and the whole peloton began to crack, including Remco Evenepoel who we then thought would be losing a tremendous ammount of time in the end (which he did compared to Pogacar, but not so much compared to the rest of the guys).

Visma was not only breaking the peloton, they were breaking themselves and had to slow down after Jorgenson got dropped. In the front, amazing efforts from Armirail on the descent. I didn't see him on the Soulon mountain in the front and suddently outta nowhere he's leaving everyone for dust on the downhill.

Then Hautacam came and... Dauphiné flashbacks came as well. Narvaez accelerated and Pogacar stormed right from the start of Hautacam. From then onwards it was basically a timetrial towards the finish line. Pogacar just looks to be too far ahead from everyone else and he keeps dropping everyone quite easily.

The whole peloton cracked and I get the feeling everyone gave their all, reaching the finish line one by one. I think the mountains put everyone in their places, and it is clear who is the dominant force of this Tour. Not even yesterday's fall became a factor today and our World Champ just looks completely unbeatable. The way I see it, the GC is settled already.  

We can already mark July 17, 2025, as the day the Tour de France was decided. The phenomenon Tadej Pogacar launched a blistering attack on Hautacam and pushed himself to the absolute limit for more than 11 kilometers. By the end, he had left Jonas Vingegaard trailing by over two minutes after just half an hour of climbing.

Vingegaard tried to respond, but Jorgenson had already been dropped long before. The Dane emptied the tank as well but visibly suffered. The longer the brutal mountain road dragged on beneath his wheels, the wider the gap to the Slovenian grew. In truth, Vingegaard only managed to contain the damage in the first kilometer after Pogacar's explosive move—after that, it was a one-man show.

Remco Evenepoel was another rider fighting a losing battle today. After not being able to follow the pace on the Col du Soulor, he was already trailing by over a minute. Yet he pulled off something close to a miracle by bridging the gap before the climb to Hautacam. But once the ascent began, he had to let go quickly—still, he managed to finish within four minutes of Pogacar, alongside Vauquelin.

However, for German (and Scottish) cycling history, July 17, 2025, will be remembered for another reason: the day a young rider stepped into the spotlight to challenge the world’s best. His name? Florian Lipowitz! Alongside Scottish talent Oscar Onley, Lipowitz took turns leading the "best of the rest" group after Pogacar and Vingegaard had ridden away.

One by one, others were dropped from their wheels. Roglic held on for a few kilometers—was Lipowitz pacing for him?—as did Tobias Halland Johannessen, but eventually, they too had to let go. Lipowitz, who comes from a biathlon background, launched his first attack behind Vingegaard, prompting an immediate response from 22-year-old Onley.

Roglic and Johannessen couldn’t follow. But Lipowitz’s second move stuck. Surrounded by a roaring crowd of cycling fans, he clawed his way closer and closer to Vingegaard—who had earlier ridden over a minute ahead when the German was still with Roglic.

In the end, Lipowitz crossed the finish line in third place, just about 100 meters behind Vingegaard.The German now climbs to fourth in the general classification—less than a minute behind Remco Evenepoel.

There’s no other way to put it: today, on the slopes of the Hautacam, a German cycling phenomenon was born. His name? You guessed it. If Lipowitz can confirm this form in tomorrow’s mountain time trial, German fans will have every reason to stay on the edge of their seats all the way to Paris. Bright days and years lie ahead.

The question was never if, but when this Tour de France would be decided. After what we witnessed today on stage 12, it's hard to argue against the idea that the race might already be over.

Tadej Pogacar didn’t just win, he dominated. His attack was perfectly timed, his legs looked unstoppable, and the response from his rivals was nonexistent. Vingegaard, who has been the only rider capable of keeping up with Pogacar over the past few stages, was unable to match his pace today.

Unless something unexpected happens, it feels like the GC battle has reached its conclusion already. The Slovenian is riding on another level, and if he maintains this form (which I am sure he will), the final podium may only be a formality from here on out.

We are quickly running out of arguments suggesting any real threat to Pogacar’s Tour de France victory. Much has been said about the heat, how Vingegaard supposedly has a lower sweat rate and therefore handles high temperatures better. Well, today’s stage was brutally hot, and if this is Pogacar struggling in the heat, then it's hard to imagine what he’d do under even more extreme conditions. If we were in March now, would he have finished five minutes ahead instead of two?

The truth is, even the supposed weaknesses are turning out to be strengths. The heat, the crashes, Almeida’s withdrawal, nothing seems to shake him. Pogacar will deservedly win this Tour de France, and the question should be: how many more will he win?

From now on, it’s fair to say that we should focus on the podium contention. The fight for it is looking really interesting. We are seeing some outsiders making a strong bid for the podium finish. Lipowitz, Tobias Johannessen, Oscar Onley, and Kévin Vauquelin, none of these riders was a clear favourite to contend for the podium, but the truth is, they all might have a shot at it, especially after seeing Evenepoel struggle today with 52 kilometers remaining.

The roles within Red Bull Bora are clear now: Lipowitz is the undisputed leader, and Roglic will have to work for him, or if he continues to lose time, fight for breakaway wins. The German is looking so strong nowadays, he even arrived just 13 seconds behind Vingegaard. He has been performing at a high level in time trials, and tomorrow's is an uphill one, so I believe he could gain some seconds on Evenepoel.

Tobias Johannessen was the protagonist of yesterday’s stage, after the incident he had with Pogacar, which caused him to crash. His team spent the whole day pulling at the front, and he backed it up with a performance to match. On top of that, their work also ended up helping Pogacar, so in a way, you could say he repaid the Slovenian for what happened yesterday.

Hopefully, this will be enough for some of Pogacar’s fans who flooded social media with insults after the incident. This kind of behaviour is unacceptable, and no rider should have to go through that.

Kevin Vauquelin is quickly becoming France’s new great hope. The Arkéa rider continues to impress across all terrains, and now he’s proving he’s a top-level climber as well. In his case, making it onto the final podium might still be a long shot, but hey, we’ve seen bigger surprises in the Tour de France before.

Finally, Oscar Onley stopped being a promising talent a while ago; he’s a solid reality in the peloton. Team Picnic owes him a lot if they manage to avoid being relegated. Onley has been by far their best rider this year, and he’ll get a lot of points in this Tour.