ANALYSIS: Should Mark Cavendish return to the Tour de France in 2025?

Mark Cavendish already has his place in Tour de France folklore confirmed. Known as the "Manx Missile," Cavendish took his record-breaking 35th stage victory in the 2024 edition of the race, surpassing cycling legend Eddy Merckx. This achievement made him the most successful stage winner in the history of cycling’s most iconic race, a feat celebrated by fans and experts alike. Yet, despite his retirement plans for years, questions still linger: could Cavendish resist the call of one last Tour de France?

For a rider who first tasted Tour de France glory back in 2008, the journey has been extraordinary. Cavendish’s career boasts 17 Giro d'Italia stage wins, 3 Vuelta a España stage wins, and victories across all three Grand Tour points classifications. Now, at 39, and with more than enough accolades to seal his legacy, the question remains: should Cavendish return to the Tour de France in 2025, or should he bow out gracefully, leaving the 2024 Tour as his grand finale?

Was 2024 not the perfect ending?

Cavendish’s 35th victory in 2024 was a historic and emotional moment. The narrative of a legendary sprinter, who announced his retirement in 2023 only to make a spectacular return, seems like the perfect ending. The 2024 race was not only a showcase of his resilience but a culmination of his career, one filled with relentless pursuit, personal sacrifices, and countless miles on the road.

The British rider’s troubles have been well documented. Alongside his injuries, Cavendish has struggled with his mental health at times during his career. It was only in 2021, that Cavendish had struggled mentally and physically, leaving him 3 years without a Tour stage win. Many thought the dream of him breaking the record was dead, before he won multiple stages that year and came agonisingly close to breaking the record in Paris. He then faced another agonising wait, including not being selected in 2022, a mechanical disaster and an injury in 2023, before finally having his crowning moment in 2024.

This sense of closure, however, raises the question: does he need another Tour de France? As Cavendish himself admitted on stage during the 2025 route presentation, he’d planned on walking away multiple times before. “After last year I was exhausted, you know how it is. I said ‘never again,’” he admitted. But, after a refreshing break with family, he’s now left with the tantalizing possibility of one more run at Tour glory. His cryptic “Yeah, we’ll see” response suggests an openness to more.

The temptation of 2025’s route

The 2025 Tour de France route announcement has undoubtedly added to Cavendish’s dilemma. With a route heavily favouring sprinters, Eurosport pundit and former Tour competitor Jens Voigt believes Cavendish’s chances of continuing just spiked. “The 2025 Tour is pretty standard in terms of overall lengths and the amount of flat and hilly stages and mountain-top finishes,” Voigt noted. “One change is that we have nine more or less flat stages until the first really tough stage (Stage 10) in the Massif Central. That does invite Cav to go one more time, to try to win more stages and to try to hold off the chasing stage hunter Pogacar!”

Of course, if Cavendish wants to hang on to the record, he truly does have to consider Tadej Pogacar, who was a true winning machine in 2024 on his way to securing the triple crown. But, then again, are records not made to be broken?

But, there’s no denying that the 2025 route could be a perfect match for Cavendish’s strengths. With the potential for more flat sprint finishes than usual on offer, the temptation for one last hurrah must be immense. It’s not just the lure of competition; it's the allure of ‘Project 36’, an opportunity to extend his record and raise the bar for future generations.

The chase from Tadej Pogacar

Adding to the intrigue is the relentless stage-winning prowess of Tadej Pogacar. With 17 Tour de France stage wins to his name, Pogacar is already in pursuit of Cavendish’s record. In 2024 alone, the Slovenian secured six stage victories on route to the yellow jersey. While Cavendish’s legacy is secure, the thought of his record being broken within a few years could make retirement a hard pill to swallow.

Cavendish’s pride in his accomplishments is evident. He has postponed retirement before, and with Pogacar, and also a talented crop of young sprinters on the rise, he may feel motivated to defend his record while he still can.

Is there anything left to prove?

Retirement is often a complex decision for athletes. Cavendish's own path to this point has seen him grapple with that decision several times. Following a much-deserved rest at the end of 2023, Cavendish returned refreshed for 2024, a year where everything seemed to align perfectly. Now, without the same pressure, he’s facing a crossroads: does he continue, risking his carefully crafted legacy, or retire on the ultimate high?

Several sporting legends have faced similar dilemmas. Michael Jordan famously returned to basketball multiple times, with varying degrees of success. While his first comeback was marked by NBA championships, his last stint with the Washington Wizards did little to add to his legacy. Similarly, Tiger Woods’ return to golf brought him both a renewed sense of glory and fresh struggles, and Michael Schumacher’s F1 return with Mercedes did not yield a single race win for the 7-time world champion.

Even in cycling, the infamous Lance Armstrong returned to the Tour, only to bettered by the younger generation. Cavendish must consider whether returning could risk diminishing his career's final chapters.

What lies ahead?

There are several paths Cavendish could pursue if he chooses not to race again. One option could see him transition into a supportive role within the Astana Qazaqstan Team, sharing his invaluable experience with younger riders. Alternatively, he could step away from competitive racing entirely, taking on ambassadorial roles or focusing on personal pursuits outside cycling.

These post-cycling pathways are appealing, especially for a rider who has spent 16 brutal years in the pro peloton. The desire to relax and spend time with his family, as he acknowledged, is compelling. For the first time in years, Cavendish is free from the weight of expectations. He’s finally able to make a decision purely on personal desire rather than pressure.

And there’s not many with experience, knowledge, and wisdom of the pro-peloton, that rival that of Mark Cavendish. Whether he wants to continue racing or not, he certainly has a future within cycling.

Decision time

Mark Cavendish’s return to the Tour de France in 2025 is a captivating possibility. The 2024 edition was arguably the perfect finale, a record-breaking victory that encapsulated his indomitable spirit and skill. However, the 2025 route provides a tantalizing setup for a sprinter, offering him multiple chances to increase his record to 36 stage wins. Additionally, the relentless Pogacar waiting in the wings may add fuel to his fire.

And let’s be honest, who wouldn’t like to see him take on Biniam Girmay and Jasper Philipsen? On the other hand, he’s got nothing left to prove, and his highlight reel of victories will be the stuff of legend for eternity.

Ultimately, the decision lies with Cavendish. Should he decide to return, the cycling world will watch with anticipation. If he chooses to retire, he leaves behind an unparalleled legacy. Either way, Mark Cavendish has etched his name into Tour de France history as one of its greatest champions, and his story is one fans will remember for generations.