ANALYSIS: Five things we learned from Paris-Nice including Vingegaard, Jorgenson, and Pedersen

The 2025 edition of Paris-Nice delivered another week of superb racing in early 2025, full of unexpected twists, standout performances, and setbacks for some of the sport’s biggest riders. Matteo Jorgenson successfully defended his title, claiming his second consecutive overall victory, while Jonas Vingegaard’s race ended prematurely due to a crash.

As the countdown to the Tour de France continues, with just 109 days to go to July 5th, Paris-Nice once again provided valuable insights into who’s on form, who has work to do, and which emerging stars are ready to step up. Here are the five biggest takeaways from this year’s Race to the Sun.

Although Jonas Vingegaard entered Paris-Nice as one of the main favourites, his race took a turn for the worse after an underwhelming performance in the mountains and an unfortunate crash on Stage 5, which forced him to abandon the race before Stage 6.

Before his withdrawal, Vingegaard’s form was already raising questions. He was beaten by Joao Almeida on the summit finish of Stage 4, where he struggled to keep up with the UAE Team Emirates leader. "If you don't beat Joao Almeida, you won’t beat Tadej Pogacar," commented Lance Armstrong, emphasising how far Vingegaard still has to go to close the gap to his Slovenian rival.

His crash further complicated matters, as he was left unable to use his left brake properly, sparking concerns about a possible broken hand. After his team confirmed his withdrawal, Team Visma | Lease a Bike was left reassessing his recovery timeline. With just over three months to go until the Tour de France, Vingegaard now faces a race against time to recover and return to peak form.

Despite his struggles, Vingegaard remains Pogacar’s key rival, but his performance at Paris-Nice showed that he is far from his best at this stage of the season. With Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel also aiming for the Tour, his path to a third yellow jersey looks more difficult than ever.

Now for some more positive news for Visma fans: Matteo Jorgenson looks the real deal.

His performance throughout the week has led many to speculate that he could one day win a Grand Tour. "Jorgenson is going to win the Tour de France one day," said Bradley Wiggins, who was left in awe of the Visma | Lease a Bike rider’s progression.

Jorgenson himself remains grounded, acknowledging that he is still developing as a GC rider. "I can't say that I'm capable of winning a Grand Tour, but at least I want to try," he said. However, his consistency, time-trial ability, and endurance in the mountains suggest that he is already one of the most complete riders in the world.

His team sports director also acknowledged his brilliance, but remained cautious about Tour de France expectations. "Matteo is one of the best riders in the world," he said. "But winning the Tour? I don’t say that."

While Paris-Nice is not a three week race, Jorgenson’s back-to-back victories prove that he can perform under pressure, and if his upward trajectory continues, a Grand Tour podium (and perhaps even a victory) might not be far away.

For a race traditionally called the Race to the Sun, this year’s edition of Paris-Nice once again delivered freezing temperatures, torrential rain, and even snow.

So no, the riders to not manage to find the sun.

The Queen Stage was shortened due to extreme weather conditions, altering the dynamics of the GC battle and making it harder for climbers to shake up the standings. "Paris-Nice is more the race to the snow," remarked Thymen Arensman, highlighting the brutal conditions that riders endured throughout the week.

Earlier in the week, Stage 4 had to be neutralized due to horrendous weather, leaving riders frustrated but understanding of the safety concerns. Michael Storer, who won a snowy summit finish in Auron, described the conditions as some of the toughest he has ever raced in.

As unpredictable weather becomes more common in spring races, Paris-Nice continues to test riders with extreme elements, adding another layer of difficulty to an already challenging early season race.

While Paris-Nice is primarily known as a stage race for climbers and GC contenders, Tim Merlier stole the show in the sprints, proving that he is in unstoppable form.

The Soudal – Quick-Step sprinter dominated Stage 1, claiming victory and taking the yellow jersey in the process. He then survived multiple crashes on Stage 2 before winning again, showing his incredible speed and resilience.

"Am I the best sprinter in the world? That's not for me to say," Merlier said humbly after taking his fifth win of 2025. "But I’m really happy with how I’m racing right now."

With this kind of dominance, Merlier is now a clear favourite for the sprints in the upcoming spring classics and could even be a major contender for the Tour de France green jersey.

We can’t wait to see Merlier back at the Tour in July.

One of the most unexpected storylines from Paris-Nice was Mads Pedersen’s performance in the mountains, where he shocked everyone by staying with the best climbers and ultimately winning the green jersey.

Pedersen, a rider primarily known for his sprinting and classics success, managed to beat both Matteo Jorgenson and João Almeida up a summit finish, leaving many wondering if he is transforming into more than just a one-day racer.

"I burned so many matches," Pedersen admitted after his surprise performance. "But this is the most significant thing I have ever done in the mountains."

His efforts didn’t go unnoticed by his rivals either. Jonathan Milan, his teammate, noted Pedersen’s performance with admiration. "I saw Mads’ form in Paris-Nice, and I can see he’s in super good shape," Milan said. Remember, Milan has taken Pedersen’s spot at the Tour de France in the Lidl-Trek squad this year.

While it remains to be seen whether Pedersen’s climbing improvements will translate to success in longer stage races, his performance in Paris-Nice suggests that he could be a serious contender in hilly classics like Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Milano-Sanremo this weekend.