ANALYSIS: Five things we learned from Paris-Nice including Vingegaard, Jorgenson, and Pedersen
Cycling
The 2025 edition of Paris-Nice delivered another week of superb
racing in early 2025, full of unexpected twists, standout performances, and setbacks
for some of the sport’s biggest riders. Matteo Jorgenson successfully defended
his title, claiming his second consecutive overall victory, while Jonas
Vingegaard’s race ended prematurely due to a crash.
As the countdown to the Tour de France continues, with just 109
days to go to July 5th, Paris-Nice once again provided valuable
insights into who’s on form, who has work to do, and which emerging stars are
ready to step up. Here are the five biggest takeaways from this year’s Race to
the Sun.
Read also
1. Jonas Vingegaard has work to do
Although Jonas Vingegaard entered Paris-Nice as one of the
main favourites, his race took a turn for the worse after an underwhelming
performance in the mountains and an unfortunate crash on Stage 5, which forced
him to abandon the race before Stage 6.
Before his withdrawal, Vingegaard’s form was already raising
questions. He was beaten by Joao Almeida on the summit finish of Stage 4, where
he struggled to keep up with the UAE Team Emirates leader. "If you don't
beat Joao Almeida, you won’t beat Tadej Pogacar," commented Lance
Armstrong, emphasising how far Vingegaard still has to go to close the gap to
his Slovenian rival.
Jonas Vingegaard was not at his best in Paris-Nice
His crash further complicated matters, as he was left unable
to use his left brake properly, sparking concerns about a possible broken hand.
After his team confirmed his withdrawal, Team Visma | Lease a Bike was left reassessing
his recovery timeline. With just over three months to go until the Tour de
France, Vingegaard now faces a race against time to recover and return to peak
form.
Despite his struggles, Vingegaard remains Pogacar’s key
rival, but his performance at Paris-Nice showed that he is far from his best at
this stage of the season. With Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel also aiming
for the Tour, his path to a third yellow jersey looks more difficult than ever.
2. Matteo Jorgenson is a future grand tour winner
Now for some more positive news for Visma fans: Matteo
Jorgenson looks the real deal.
His performance throughout the week has led many to
speculate that he could one day win a Grand Tour. "Jorgenson is going to
win the Tour de France one day," said Bradley Wiggins, who was left in awe
of the Visma | Lease a Bike rider’s progression.
Jorgenson himself remains grounded, acknowledging that he is
still developing as a GC rider. "I can't say that I'm capable of winning a
Grand Tour, but at least I want to try," he said. However, his
consistency, time-trial ability, and endurance in the mountains suggest that he
is already one of the most complete riders in the world.
His team sports director also acknowledged his brilliance,
but remained cautious about Tour de France expectations. "Matteo is one of
the best riders in the world," he said. "But winning the Tour? I
don’t say that."
While Paris-Nice is not a three week race, Jorgenson’s
back-to-back victories prove that he can perform under pressure, and if his upward
trajectory continues, a Grand Tour podium (and perhaps even a victory) might
not be far away.
3. Paris-Nice should be renamed the ‘Race to the Snow’
For a race traditionally called the Race to the Sun, this
year’s edition of Paris-Nice once again delivered freezing temperatures,
torrential rain, and even snow.
So no, the riders to not manage to find the sun.
The Queen Stage was shortened due to extreme weather
conditions, altering the dynamics of the GC battle and making it harder for
climbers to shake up the standings. "Paris-Nice is more the race to the
snow," remarked Thymen Arensman, highlighting the brutal conditions that
riders endured throughout the week.
Earlier in the week, Stage 4 had to be neutralized due to
horrendous weather, leaving riders frustrated but understanding of the safety
concerns. Michael Storer, who won a snowy summit finish in Auron, described the
conditions as some of the toughest he has ever raced in.
As unpredictable weather becomes more common in spring races,
Paris-Nice continues to test riders with extreme elements, adding another layer
of difficulty to an already challenging early season race.
4. Tim Merlier is in the form of his life
While Paris-Nice is primarily known as a stage race for
climbers and GC contenders, Tim Merlier stole the show in the sprints, proving
that he is in unstoppable form.
The Soudal – Quick-Step sprinter dominated Stage 1, claiming
victory and taking the yellow jersey in the process. He then survived multiple
crashes on Stage 2 before winning again, showing his incredible speed and
resilience.
"Am I the best sprinter in the world? That's not for me
to say," Merlier said humbly after taking his fifth win of 2025. "But
I’m really happy with how I’m racing right now."
Tim Merlier is a man on a mission in 2025
With this kind of dominance, Merlier is now a clear favourite
for the sprints in the upcoming spring classics and could even be a major
contender for the Tour de France green jersey.
We can’t wait to see Merlier back at the Tour in July.
5. Mads Pedersen is… a climber?
One of the most unexpected storylines from Paris-Nice was Mads
Pedersen’s performance in the mountains, where he shocked everyone by staying
with the best climbers and ultimately winning the green jersey.
Pedersen, a rider primarily known for his sprinting and
classics success, managed to beat both Matteo Jorgenson and João Almeida up a
summit finish, leaving many wondering if he is transforming into more than just
a one-day racer.
Can Pedersen challenge Van der Poel in the monuments?
"I burned so many matches," Pedersen admitted
after his surprise performance. "But this is the most significant thing I
have ever done in the mountains."
His efforts didn’t go unnoticed by his rivals either. Jonathan
Milan, his teammate, noted Pedersen’s performance with admiration. "I saw
Mads’ form in Paris-Nice, and I can see he’s in super good shape," Milan
said. Remember, Milan has taken Pedersen’s spot at the Tour de France in the
Lidl-Trek squad this year.
While it remains to be seen whether Pedersen’s climbing
improvements will translate to success in longer stage races, his performance
in Paris-Nice suggests that he could be a serious contender in hilly classics
like Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Milano-Sanremo this weekend.
Fin MajorCycling Journalist
Fin Major is a UK-based writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2024. He is the site’s main writer for FAQs and evergreen explainers and has written around 2,000 pieces for the platform. Alongside this work, he focuses on in-depth analysis and covers the biggest races on the calendar, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, providing clear context around performance trends, tactics, and key storylines.
In his reporting, Fin uses reputable data sources such as ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. Outside of writing, Fin is an active cyclist, which supports his practical understanding of the sport and its demands.
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