Wout van Aert and the Vuelta a Espana: Changing fortunes?

Wout van Aert’s 2024 season has been one of stark contrasts, marked by both optimism and crushing setbacks. For a rider who has consistently been among the best in the world, 2024 was supposed to be another chapter in a story of success for van Aert. Yet, a horrifying crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen in March abruptly changed the narrative.

What should have been a year defined by victories and perhaps even new milestones turned into a battle against physical and mental adversity. As Van Aert nears his 30th birthday, a milestone that traditionally signals the beginning of the latter stages of an athlete’s prime, the 2024 Vuelta a España presents him with a crucial opportunity.

Not just to win stages or jerseys, but to rediscover the form that made him a dominant force in cycling. Central to this opportunity is the Vuelta’s points classification—a competition that could serve as both a challenge and a catalyst for Van Aert’s resurgence.

The first part of 2024 held so much promise for Van Aert. He claimed to be in the best physical condition of his career, which, considering his past achievements, was a statement of immense potential. However, in one terrifying moment at Dwars door Vlaanderen, everything changed. A high-speed crash left Van Aert with seven fractured ribs, a broken collarbone, and a fractured sternum. The injuries were severe enough to land him in the hospital and force him to cancel his participation in the Giro d'Italia. The psychological toll of such a crash, coupled with the long recovery process, cannot be underestimated.

As Van Aert watched from the sidelines, his arch rival Mathieu van der Poel dominated the spring classics, winning both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. For a competitor like Van Aert, who thrives on the biggest stages and against the toughest rivals, these victories by Van der Poel were likely a bitter pill to swallow. They were a reminder of what could have been—a painful contrast to his current reality of rehabilitation and missed opportunities.

By the time the Tour de France rolled around in July, Van Aert had recovered enough to compete, but it was clear he was not the same rider who had electrified previous editions. In 2022, Van Aert was unstoppable, winning three stages, wearing the yellow jersey for several days, and dominating the points classification to claim the green jersey. He also rode his teammate Vingegaard away from the mighty Tadej Pogacar, and was a key player in the Dane’s overall victory. His performances were a masterclass in versatility, showcasing his ability to win sprints, time trials, and even compete on challenging terrain.

However, in 2024, Van Aert was a fraction of his former self. He did not manage to secure a single stage win—a stark reminder of the impact the crash had on his form and confidence. Van Aert was also unable to offer the same level of support to Vingegaard, particularly on the mountain stages.

For a rider who has set such high standards for himself, the 2024 Tour was a humbling experience. It was a clear indication that while physical recovery is one thing, returning to peak competitive form is an entirely different challenge.

As Van Aert looks to the remainder of the season, the 2024 Vuelta a España offers a unique opportunity. The Vuelta is known for its gruelling terrain, with stages designed to test the endurance and climbing abilities of the world’s best riders. Unlike the Tour de France or the Giro d'Italia, the Vuelta’s course is heavily skewed towards climbers and all-rounders, with far fewer flat stages for sprinters to contest.

Spain’s mountainous landscape, is the perfect setting for the Vuelta’s reputation as a climber’s paradise. The race organizers have a penchant for designing stages that disrupt the general classification and create time gaps. This philosophy often results in fewer sprint opportunities, making the Vuelta a much more unpredictable and challenging race for sprinters.

In this context, the points classification at the Vuelta is not the same as it is at the Tour de France or the Giro d'Italia. It’s a competition that rewards consistency across a variety of stages, including sprints, intermediate sprints, and even performances on hilly and mountainous stages. This screams of the green jersey being worn by an all-rounder. For Van Aert, this could be a golden opportunity.

Van Aert is not just a sprinter; he is a rider with an extraordinary range of skills. His ability to contest sprints, attack on hilly terrain, and survive on mountainous stages gives him a unique advantage in the Vuelta’s points classification. Unlike pure sprinters who may struggle to survive the mountain stages and therefore miss out on valuable points, Van Aert has the versatility to remain competitive throughout the entire race.

To successfully target the points classification, Van Aert will need to adopt a strategic approach that maximizes his strengths while managing his energy reserves. The Vuelta typically features only a handful of flat stages where pure sprinters can dominate, so Van Aert will need to capitalize on these opportunities to collect maximum points. However, the real challenge—and opportunity—lies in the intermediate sprints and the stages that end in reduced bunch sprints after hilly or mountainous terrain.

On such stages, where the sprinters’ teams may not be able to control the peloton as effectively, Van Aert’s ability to navigate challenging terrain and position himself for a strong finish could earn him valuable points that others might miss. Additionally, Van Aert could target breakaways on stages that don’t necessarily suit the pure climbers, aiming to pick up intermediate sprint points and perhaps even challenge for stage wins.

Beyond the tactical considerations, the Vuelta represents a crucial psychological and physical rebuilding phase for Van Aert. The crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen and the subsequent underwhelming Tour de France have undoubtedly taken a toll on his confidence. Competing for and potentially winning the points classification would not only signal a return to form but also restore Van Aert’s belief in his ability to compete at the highest level.

Winning the points classification at the Vuelta would require Van Aert to deliver consistent performances over three weeks of intense racing. This consistency is precisely what he needs to regain after the disruptions of 2024. Each stage will serve as a test of his recovery, mental resilience, and race craft—a process that, if successful, could lay the foundation for a resurgent 2025 season.

Moreover, the Vuelta’s timing, as the last Grand Tour of the year, means that a strong performance here could be the perfect springboard into the offseason. It would allow Van Aert to finish 2024 on a high note, turning what could have been a lost year into one of redemption and renewal.

As Van Aert turns 30 in September, he stands at a crossroads in his career. While 30 is not old in the world of professional cycling, it is an age where many riders begin to think about the next phase of their careers. The years of peak physical performance are limited, and the pressure to achieve as much as possible in this window is immense.

The 2024 Vuelta a España, therefore, is not just another race for Van Aert. It is a critical juncture where he can either reassert himself as one of the peloton’s dominant forces or risk seeing his prime years slip away. The points classification offers a tangible goal that aligns perfectly with his abilities and the current state of his career. By focusing on this competition, Van Aert can channel his frustrations and disappointments into a targeted, achievable objective that could reignite his career.

Wout van Aert’s 2024 season has been a journey through adversity, but the Vuelta a España offers a path to redemption. By targeting the points classification, Van Aert has the chance to rediscover the form that made him one of the most feared and respected riders in the world. The Vuelta’s unique challenges will test every aspect of his ability, from his sprinting prowess to his endurance on mountainous terrain.

In doing so, he can prove that even after the hardest falls, champions can rise again—stronger, wiser, and more determined than ever. If Van Aert can successfully navigate the Vuelta and emerge with the green jersey, it will not only mark a significant achievement in his career but also serve as a powerful statement: that Wout van Aert is far from finished, and that his best days may still be ahead of him.