"We are now 17 stages into the Giro and we still don’t know who’s going to win” – Bruyneel loving Giro battle as Del Toro fights back

If there were any doubts about Isaac Del Toro’s legs, Stage 17 of the 2025 Giro d’Italia put them to rest. Just one day after suffering badly, the 21-year-old UAE Team Emirates rider responded with what Johan Bruyneel called “a nice answer to all the doubters and especially for himself.” Del Toro’s victory showed not only that he has the endurance, but the mental strength too.

The day began fast. “Massive dash for the breakaway,” said Spencer Martin on The Move, setting the scene. At one point, Del Toro was caught out in a split. “Doesn’t even sit around and wait for his team to pull it back,” Martin recounted. “Just sprints across a pretty large gap.” That move alone suggested Del Toro was back to his best. But it was only the start.

The day’s dynamics were unusual. A large 40-rider breakaway formed before the first climb, with teams like Visma, UAE, and EF Education-EasyPost well represented. Who would make the first moves?

At the Mortirolo, Richard Carapaz attacked near the summit while Del Toro appeared to be in trouble, just as we had seen on stage 16. “He’s drifting back going up the climb,” Martin said. “Simon Yates, Egan Bernal, Derek Gee looked the most comfortable of the non-Carapaz riders.” Carapaz crested the climb with a gap, and with a teammate dropping back to support, it looked ominous.

But UAE marshalled their forces. “They pace Del Toro back up to the front,” Martin explained, “Adam Yates took some big turns there.” By the final climb with 12km to go, the GC group was largely intact.

Then came Del Toro’s defining moment.

“9K to go, attacks from the GC group,” Martin said. “Gets over the top of the climb and then we’re in Del Toro country… descent finish into a turn, uphill final kilometre.” Carapaz followed, and the duo caught Bardet, but Del Toro’s cornering was decisive, especially impressive in the damp conditions. “He just rips through that final turn so fast… holds off Carapaz who finishes third.”

“If you listen to his interview after the race,” Bruyneel said, “that was the plan: to not respond on the Mortirolo.” In hindsight, the patience looked tactical genius. “It’s easy to say ‘yeah that was the plan’ if it works,” Bruyneel admitted. “If Carapaz gets a five-minute lead going over the top, it’s not great I guess.”

Del Toro’s GC lead increased with the time bonus. He added 25 seconds on Yates, 26 on Gee, and extended his lead over Carapaz by ten seconds. Carapaz now sits 41 seconds behind, Yates 51, Gee 1:57. “We have like a big four here,” said Martin.

Bruyneel acknowledged the narrative shift. “Yesterday after the stage, we were thinking okay, this is going to keep going on… Carapaz is going to keep grinding time and Del Toro will crumble. It's not so sure anymore after today.”

Still, the final two mountain stages loom large. “Those are completely different. Extremely hard,” Bruyneel warned. “As of today, I would still say that the upwards curve of Carapaz and the stagnating curve of Del Toro… at some point they will cross each other.” He added, “I think that Carapaz, it’s very likely that he gets the upper hand in the two last big stages.”

Martin echoed the uncertainty. “Stage 19 is really hard. Stage 20 is probably the hardest stage of the race.” He questioned Del Toro’s ability on the toughest climbs. “I think he is an amazing one of the world's best on hilly explosive terrain. I still have questions about his climbing.”

Both noted Del Toro’s post-rest day struggles. “Yesterday was also the day after the second rest day,” Bruyneel said. “Some people struggle with rest days, these are definitely things UAE will look at to bring his morale up: ‘there’s no more rest days.’”

One of Del Toro’s key challengers, Juan Ayuso, has faded. “It’s clear something is off with Ayuso,” said Bruyneel, citing a knee injury. “He was really great in the first part of the Giro, and after that crash, we’ve seen him going up and down.” The physical toll has been accompanied by a drop in morale. “He talks… the energy’s gone,” Bruyneel noted. “It’s part of his learning process.”

Egan Bernal sits sixth overall, 4:43 down, and Bruyneel believes he could be higher. “I personally feel like he is better if he would race whenever the top favourites race and not try to do attacks from 50, 60 sometimes 80k out,” he said. “He should be third or fourth in this race.”

As for Derek Gee and Simon Yates, Martin believes the latter may lack the attacking intent. “Simon Yates will probably just hang in there,” he said. Bruyneel agreed: “I don’t foresee a big attack from Simon Yates.” Both argued that Carapaz is Del Toro’s real threat.

Stage 18 offers a pause in the GC hostilities, with 144km of racing over early climbs around Lake Como followed by 50km of flat roads into the outskirts of Milan. “The market clearly thinks bunch sprint,” said Martin, listing Kaden Groves, Mads Pedersen, and Olav Kooij as favourites. Johan Bruyneel agrees. “I think bunch sprint,” he said. “I'm going to go for Olav Kooij… I think he can make it over those climbs or come back at least. He’s just a tiny bit faster than Kaden Groves.”

Martin chose Groves. “He tends to win on stages where there’s more like kilojoules load. This would be a perfect stage for him.” But he also warned, “Stage 18 of the Giro is famous for a winner where you say ‘what, how did that happen?’”

They also floated breakaway scenarios. Bruyneel named Matthias Vacek as a wildcard. “Tomorrow is his last chance to go in a breakaway.” Martin added, “If it’s a breakaway, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Vacek winning. He’s so strong.”

Whether Stage 18 ends in a bunch gallop or surprise escape, the GC battle resumes with Stage 19’s climbs. “We are now 17 stages into the Giro and we still don’t know who’s going to win,” said Bruyneel. “But let the man bask in his glory for a day… this was pure class.”