OPINION | Joao Almeida will have the last laugh if Del Toro cracks like Ayuso

Stage 16 of the 2025 Giro d’Italia may come to be remembered as the day everything changed. It was a day when the high Alps delivered not just suffering, but a shift in the entire story of this Grand Tour. The drama began with Primoz Roglic, once the overwhelming favourite, climbing into the team car after yet another crash. The man tipped by many to win a second Maglia Rosa was suddenly gone.

Then came the implosion of UAE Team Emirates – XRG’s dual leadership strategy.

Juan Ayuso, riding third on GC and billed as the team's next Grand Tour champion, was the first to fall. On the slopes of the Passo Santa Barbara, EF Education-EasyPost upped the pace, and Ayuso fell away with a whimper. There was no last stand, no desperate attempt to limit losses. He cracked, sat up, and let the race ride away from him. By the end of the day, Ayuso had tumbled to 17th overall. Whatever hopes UAE had placed on him, they are now buried in the gravel.

For a moment, it seemed their leadership problem was solved. No more internal dilemmas. No more divided loyalties. The team could now rally fully around the young, brilliant Isaac Del Toro, the new pink jersey and revelation of the race.

But that illusion didn’t last long.

Because as the race climbed higher, so did the pressure. On the final ascent to San Valentino, after 200 brutal kilometres, Del Toro cracked too. First, he let Richard Carapaz go. Then he lost the wheel of Simon Yates. By the finish, the time gaps had ballooned, Carapaz took around 1:35 on Del Toro, and Simon Yates now sits just 26 seconds behind the maglia rosa. Carapaz is only 31 seconds back. Derek Gee, fourth, lurks at 1:31. The jersey is far from secure, and Del Toro suddenly looks very human.

So now, UAE are left with one contender where they had two, and a rider leading the Giro by mere seconds, not minutes. A rider who, for the first time in this race, showed clear signs of weakness.

And somewhere, watching it all unfold, João Almeida must be shaking his head. Or maybe laughing. Well, maybe not laughing, because Almeida has always shown himself to be a respectful and brilliant teammate. But he may at least feel a point has been proven, without him even being present.

Because while UAE spent the last two seasons sweeping up race win after race win, they’ve continually overlooked the one man who does what every Grand Tour team craves: deliver, consistently.

Almeida is 26 years old and has never finished outside the top 10 in a Grand Tour he’s completed. In 2020, he was fourth at the Giro. In 2021, sixth. In 2023, third. He was fifth at the 2022 Vuelta and ninth in 2023, and last year, in the service of Tadej Pogacar, he still managed to finish fourth at the Tour de France, while riding almost entirely for someone else.

Most teams would build around a rider with that résumé. At UAE, he’s third in line. Maybe even fourth now with the emergence of Del Toro.

This Giro was never going to be his. UAE’s plan was Ayuso first, Del Toro second, and Almeida, despite winning Itzulia and Romandie earlier this season, was again cast as the domestique elsewhere. Ayuso got the nod here, and Almeida will be working for Pogacar again at the Tour. And with Pogacar likely eyeing the Vuelta to complete his grand tour collection, Almeida won’t get leadership there either.

There is something deeply frustrating about seeing a rider as complete and consistent as Almeida confined to the shadows. Especially when the riders chosen ahead of him are still building their reputations, and ,critically, still proving their reliability. Ayuso’s brilliance is undeniable, I’m under no illusions that he has an incredibly bright future.

But so, too, is his unpredictability, as we have seen that his form can soar, and vanish just as quickly.

That’s what makes Stage 16 sting, as UAE backed Ayuso, who cracked. Now they’re all in on Del Toro, who just might totally crack in the coming days. And if he does, and Simon Yates or Richard Carapaz swoop in to take the Giro, it will be hard not to wonder how things might’ve been different if the team had built around the one man who never collapses in the third week.

Because that’s the thing about Almeida. He doesn’t dazzle in the same way, he rarely attacks from 5km out, and he doesn’t send the crowd into raptures. But what he does do is keep showing up. He climbs at his rhythm, limits his losses, and always gets stronger as the race goes on; if you're building a team to win three-week races, that reliability is gold dust.

Right now, Almeida is not in Italy. But his absence from the leadership conversation is perhaps the biggest indictment of how UAE have structured their priorities, in my humble opinion. There is a fine line between investing in future brilliance and ignoring proven results. If Del Toro fades and UAE once again leave a Grand Tour empty-handed, they’ll have nobody to blame but themselves.

Of course, for the sport it is not a bad thing if UAE don’t win this race. And UAE are in a very fortunate position to have this array of talent, but I just feel that Almeida has not been given enough chances.

It’s not just a question of whether Almeida could’ve won this Giro. It’s a question of what more he has to do to earn the leadership role at a grand tour. His 2025 season has been exceptional, as he has won the GC at the Tour de Romandie and Itzulia Basque Country, and was second in the Algarve and sixth at Paris-Nice. He’s doing everything right, ticking every box. Except, it seems, the one that gets you team leadership at UAE.

And so, if Del Toro cracks like Ayuso, and Almeida finishes the season having supported Pogacar all year without ever being given a shot of his own, the laughter may come with a tinge of bitterness. But it will still be justified.

Because if João Almeida had been trusted with this Giro, he probably wouldn’t have cracked on the Passo Santa Barbara. He probably wouldn’t have lost time on San Valentino. He might not have won the race, but he would still be in it.

And that, in week three of a Grand Tour, is sometimes all that matters.