Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 5 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Del Toro the main favourite; But can van der Poel and Van Aert get in the mix?

Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 is taking place from the 9th to the 15th of March and is, as is the case every year, one of the most important races of the spring. It not only provides sprinters, time trialists and climbers with golden opportunities in one of Italy's top events; but also provides the classics specialists with ideal races to prepare for their big goals. We preview stage 5 which is expected to start and finish at 10:55 and 15:45CET.

The race was created back in 1966 and as the name suggests, it takes rider riders from the Tyrrhenian sea all the way to the Adriatic; crossing central Italy from west to east with a variety of stages that suits all types of riders. Dino Zandegù won the first edition, but it didn't take long for big international names to join the race; even if Paris-Nice was always in the same slot, calendar-wise. The six consecutive GC wins of Roger de Vlaeminck from 1972 to 1977 boosted the race to the highest of levels possible, and lots of legends have cemented their name in the week-long stage-race.

Francesco Moser, Giuseppe Saronni, Joop Zoetemelk and Tony Rominger are riders who won throughout the 20th century; whilst this century a few editions did not have mountain stages which increased the variety of overall winners. Classics specialists such as Paolo Bettini and Óscar Freire won it at their prime; Fabian Cancellara won it back in 2008 and even Greg Van Avermaet took the title in 2016 most recently...

However the quality of the winners over the past 15 years is outerwordly, with many of the world's very best climbers winning the overall classification at the prime of their career. Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Primoz Roglic, Simon Yates, Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard... It's hard to image a better list. In 2025 Juan Ayuso inserted his name amongst the greats, winning the overall classification after winning the queen stage, dethrnoing a Filippo Ganna who showed the very best climbing legs of his career.

Another explosive stage on the menu, a Tirreno-Adriatico classic as it features climbing from start to finish, most of them slight, not overly hard; and with an explosive circuit finish. The Monte delle Ceane does provide for a proper climbing challenge, averaging over 7% for over 7 kilometers, but it does end with over 80 kilometers to go and there is an enormous amount of climbs still to follow.

So it is a day where the race can explode at any moment; and it may also not explode and lead to a GC battle up the final one. 3800 meters of climbing mean that by the time the riders begin to ascent the Santurario del Beato Sante, they will not be fresh. After the large amount of small climbs, here the climbers can legitimately have a saying with the gradients averaging just over 6% for 4.2 kilometers.

It is a very open day, with the profile not favouring either climbers or puncheurs, but instead the pace and the riders' attitudes will decide where the balance will lean towards. The final climb ends with a mere 1.5 kilometers to go and the riders then descent back into Mombaroccio for the finish line.

The stage could on paper go many ways, but I think ultimately the powers will mostly cancel each other out. BORA has no reason to attack any longer since Giulio Pellizzari is now in the race lead and they have control over the race. Not literal control, the gap over Isaac del Toro is minor, but the Italian is young and in the lead so they won't go too risky if I were to bet, but instead protect him. Protect him from, of course, Isaac del Toro, who continues to be more explosive and a better sprinter; however had in my opinion horrible timing with today's sprint and completely lost his results whilst seeing the Italian take time...

So the GC fight should be interesting, and because it is so close I don't think many riders are willing to risk it all in one of the earlier climbs of the day, unless one team does have ideas and it then all sparks from there... Which is possible, but perhaps more a matter of feeling in the moment and not exactly something I could predict.

The final climb is not brutal but it is relatively hard, we could see gaps besides the bonifications and a stage win up for grabs, so there are plenty reasons to wait it out. Looking at someone like Ben Healy or the Bahrain duo of Santiago Buitrago and Antonio Tiberi, that's maybe where it's most likely that we will see attacks coming from early on. Giulio Ciccone, Matteo Jorgenson and Tobias Johannessen are tremendously strong at the moment and the latter two specially will be a danger if they get a gap - their form is perhaps above what the GC shows.

Then of course the classics riders, what can they do here? They will test themselves, there is a lot of climbing but it's not overly hard for a Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert to be in contention... For Flanders it is a valuable day of preparation so both will be protected and try it out, but I'd say both have equal chances of surviving the many climbs on the day - not too high, but if the race isn't attacked overly hard, they can certainly be there in the finale. Don't say it too loud, but the same applies to Filippo Ganna.

Put in an Andrea Vendrame in the mix and you've got a few men who can sprint and disrupt the order of the expected GC battle for the win. Clément Champoussin and Jan Christen were also in the front group today and so I will gladly give them a mention, socially as puncheurs who would ordinarily be very well adjusted for such a punchy day.

*** Isaac del Toro, Mathieu van der Poel
** Giulio Pellizzari, Matteo Jorgenson, Tobias Johannessen
* Wout van Aert, Ben Healy, Andrea Vendrame, Jan Christen, Clément Champoussin

Pick: Isaac del Toro

How: Reduced group sprint.