Thomas Dekker believes Wout van Aert’s monument dream is dying: “Soon he will be happy to be second or third”
Cycling
Wout van Aert endured a hugely underwhelming performance at the E3 Saxo Classic on Friday, failing to feature at any point in the decisive moves. The race was completely dominated by Mathieu van der Poel, who rode away from the field to take a commanding solo victory.
Van Aert, who had only just returned from an altitude training camp, appeared off the pace throughout. His subdued display raised eyebrows, particularly given how crucial this part of the Spring Classics calendar is for the Belgian star.
Speaking on the Live Slow, Ride Fast podcast, former pro Thomas Dekker expressed sympathy for Van Aert and lamented the absence of a head-to-head battle between the long-time rivals.
"I'm a cycling fan and you want to see a fight," Dekker said. "Milan-Sanremo was beautiful because Pogacar couldn't get Van der Poel off him, we've seen that duel so often in cyclo-cross. You want Van der Poel versus Van Aert. I feel that more than with Van der Poel versus Pedersen, because that has never really been a duel."
Having seen Van Aert return from training in the mountains, Dekker had hoped for a strong showing to kickstart the next phase of his Classics campaign. But with Van der Poel and Pogacar continuing to set a level above the rest, he now fears the coming weeks may follow a similar pattern.
"You hope that he comes down from the mountain and starts with a kick-start for the coming weeks. I hope not, but there is a big chance that it will not work out next week. Van der Poel and Pogacar are better than everyone, Van Aert has to make a big step."
Dekker also suggested that Van Aert’s attempts to influence races in recent weeks have fallen flat, not through a lack of effort, but through an apparent dip in power and sharpness.
"I see Van Aert lately occasionally trying to get away or close a gap, but he doesn't get there. He can't deliver the power to get away or put something right. The chance that that will be different next week is very small. Let alone that you are better than Van der Poel."
There is growing concern that Van Aert’s long-standing goal of winning a cobbled Monument could be slipping further from reach. Dekker warns that if expectations shift from winning to simply finishing on the podium, it could represent a turning point in the Visma rider's career.
"Everything is focused on winning a Monument, but soon he will be happy to be second or third. If that becomes the logic, there will simply be a change in his career."
While still backing Team Visma | Lease a Bike to remain competitive, Dekker admitted that expecting Van Aert to beat Van der Poel in his current form might not be realistic.
"But I'm still looking at Visma winning that race, and I think they'll be at the start like that too. Is that realistic? It doesn't seem like it. I think he'll be very happy if he finishes second or third. I hope that gives hope for an extra step in the future, because Van der Poel will also be less good at some point."
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Too much amatuer psychology. How about this: "he was never as good as when he had not suffered multiple career-threatening injuries." What is happening to him is what happened to Alaphilippe, Bernal, and others. You will notice that his two major peers -- MVDP and Mads - are both at their all time best. You will also note that neither is coming off of anything like the same last 18 months that Wout is. Go back to 2022, then roll the tape forward with Wout remaining healhty and one of them having had multiple traumatic falls. Odds are good he'd be at his dominant best and they would not.
But you yourself are agreeing the crashing affected his psyche, or is that just me getting the wrong impression?
Hard to imagine that his confidence - that imperious flow state that great athletes operate in - hasn't been affected. But that is a different dynamic than the one you described. He has not become hesitant because he is fixated on his rival. He has suffered multiple traumatic injuries, and I have no doubt he is still 1% off both mentally and physically as a result. Football (both kinds) and basketball players who blow out knees go through a predictable cycle in which they are reluctant to do max efforts even after their doctors have cleared them. I myself went though a small version of that after a back injury. It's just hard once you no longer know where the line is. We saw in his TT a couple weeks ago that he still has power, and for all the hand wringing he is still finishing in the top 10-20 of big races. But as we have seen with others, getting *all* the way back is not assured. I'm not ready to say he is done, but few riders who have been hurt as often and as badly as him remain at the top.
Go back to that era and look at the lousy mechanicals he's had at Paris-Roubaix. Take those away, maybe he has another Monument, Van der Poel has one less, and suddenly all the rules change. Those mechanicals preceded his awful crashes - and you're right, that Tour was amazing. Ventoux, TT, and Champs-Elysees?! Something that Pogacar and Van der Poel can't do, just Wout. It still amazes me.
Yes, I agree but you’re taking risks writing such long posts here ;-) In that sense, the Tourless Primoz discussion is also pretty pointless as he virtually won a Tour (nobody would have counted on Tadej doing what he did at the last moment at that time and I guess it was bad karma for Primoz for so ofren cutting things so fine). I think you over interpreted my original thesis, it was not for trying to explain his current state, it was to suggest there was already mental material pre-crashes that has helped worsen his state, when it rains it pours. I really do remember having the feeling in that past he was more focused on not letting MVDP get better than him than doing his own thing. The seed of doubt was already planted and it doesn’t take much for doubt to grow in all sorts of directions.
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- Having to shoulder too much pressure from the Belgain public too much that he made a tactical mistake. That's what public pressure does to you. Poor Wout! Hopefully, lady luck befalls him soon.
KerisVroom03-04-2025 - If he's very lucky maybe he can podium a Tour one season, I certainly don't believe he can win it, evervappaxbipmv03-04-2025
- Yeah, as if fans would now have acquired a right to an MVPD every generation ;-)Jumpyjohn03-04-2025
- Yeah not this year anyway but worth keeping an eye on him (and some others) in future.Jumpyjohn03-04-2025
- poor kid, saddled with all that “next mvdp” crap. eeesh…OCexile03-04-2025
- I don't think so, maybe in a different GT, not in the Tour. Last year, to be 3rd, he would have to be better than Remco. And he wasn't, on any terrainvappaxbipmv03-04-2025
- Or sprinting, or against wind. I think by now they’ve optimised the tire tech and pressures to largely smooth out rider weight effects. BUT, I’m going to go through past podiums to see what weight distribution trends are to be spotted coz I’m curious now.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- I also wasn’t too impressed by the final lead out, they’ve got to practice that, Wout had far too long to ride alone but then again it seemed as if the lead-outs had themselves run out of steam too early which is what makes me believe none of them could have won, Powfull looked totally fresh and in the end it was just a case of him being stronger than the others, not much you can do against that, just like you can’t outdo MVDP in the end when he’s in shape.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Exactly, a rider (or sprinter in athletics) can’t even tell themselves when it will happen until it does. Obviously if you have an idea that could happen, you should maybe envisage testing your theory with perhaps an small sharp attack well before race-end.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Yes but 20 minutes as a domestique isn’t 20 minutes as a leader, and you know as well as anybody that Pog winning is in no way a guarantee. Granted, neither Pog nor Remco nor Jinas nor Primoz or some more winning starts to seem far-fetched but a podium would certainly be targetable if he doesn’t have to worry about Jonas.Mistermaumau03-04-2025