PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 21 - Primoz Roglic will win in Madrid but can someone surprise in the final time-trial?
Cycling
The Vuelta a España will come to a close this Sunday in Madrid. The riders will tackle the final time trial in Madrid; the overall classification has a known winner unless something shocking happens but the stage is open for many riders.
The race ends in Madrid again this year but not with a stage suited to the sprinters. Instead, there will be a 25-kilometer time trial where the GC contenders will have their final battle for the overall classification.
Stage 21 (ITT): Madrid - Madrid, 25.4 kilometers
The time-trial is not completely flat but there isn't anything too difficult. A few rolling gradients... And the final kilometer will rise at a 2% average gradient, there is an argument to saving the legs a little for the finale which could be decisive for the stage win.
The Weather
Map Vuelta a España 2024 stage 21
A warm afternoon and some southwestern wind. Although we'll be in a completely urban setting it doesn't mean the riders won't feel the difference and the truth is that there may be some headwind throughout the course. It will be rather technical at first as well.
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The Favourites
Brandon McNulty won the opening time-trial and it could be argued that the American is a big contender to do it again. He has been under the radar for a while ever since crashing about a week ago but that may not be a bad thing; he knows he can win here and can actually take a second stage win. He will have Mathias Vacek who was second in Lisbon also aiming for a result here and the man who is the strongest of specialists against the clock on paper: Stefan Küng, who has also been putting on tremendous performances during this Vuelta.
Edoardo Affini is also a very strong and powerful rider who was able to save himself during the past few days without Wout van Aert to support and with Sepp Kuss out of the fight for top places. Mattia Cattaneo, Victor Campenaerts, Kasper Asgreen, Nelson Oliveira, Bruno Armirail and who knows... The UAE riders have great TT bikes and so we could see KOM winner Jay Vine and Isaac Del Toro also fighting for a strong result here.
GC Fight - If nothing weird happens, Primoz Roglic wins the overall classification... The stage win is also possible, however he won't be as fresh as some of his other rivals for the stage win. Ben O'Connor has 9 seconds of advantage over Enric Mas and I believe the standings will remain like this whilst the Australian can even extend it if he is able to show his true legs.
Richard Carapaz will finish fourth whilst in the fight for fifth place we've got David Gaudu and Mattias Skjelmose separated by 30 seconds. Honestly I think there will be a position change here as the lightweight Frenchman won't like the flat route and simply doesn't have any recent good result to show that he will be able to defend himself here. Florian Lipowitz, Mikel Landa, Pavel Sivakov and Carlos Rodríguez should all stay in the same position on the Top10.
Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 21:
*** Brandon McNulty, Stefan Küng
** Primoz Roglic, Mathias Vacek, Edoardo Affini
* Ben O'Connor, Mattias Skjelmose, Mattia Cattaneo, Victor Campenaerts, Nelson Oliveira, Jay Vine
** Primoz Roglic, Mathias Vacek, Edoardo Affini
* Ben O'Connor, Mattias Skjelmose, Mattia Cattaneo, Victor Campenaerts, Nelson Oliveira, Jay Vine
Pick: Brandon McNulty
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A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
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- It doesnt take a genius to understand that Pogi is 1 level above and Pogi is younger that Jonas, so Jonas will not win under ordinary circumstances. Pogi has to crack hard for Jonas to win. It doesn't matter whether you defend Jonas or not , facts remain facts. Jonas himself says his numbers are better than 2022/2023, so Jonas is more or less optimized and we are just see the stochastic variation due to other factors. I think he will retire along with Pedersen in WC denmarkabstractengineer13-11-2026
- They only raced each other during the 2026 Tour, but here's a few metrics to look at. Stage 3 (Granollers to Les Angles): Pogačar won the stage, finishing 2 seconds ahead of Vingegaard (2nd). Del Toro finished 24 seconds behind Stage 6 (Pau to Gavarnie-Gedre / Col du Tourmalet): Pogačar won solo, Vingegaard finished 2nd (losing 2:38), and Del Toro finished 3rd (at +2:57, finishing 19 seconds behind Vingegaard). Here, Jonas Vingegaard outclimbed Isaac del Toro by 19 seconds on the mountain stageawp13-11-2026
- your clinging to the past. Jonas was dropped by del toro many times last year and jonas never managed a climbing numers del toro did in dauphine last year -entire year. Trend is also evident theres no discussion your living in the past, its beent he same with jonas for many years now and only developing, meanwhile del toro is rising and developing greatly. This is all obvious stuff and im not even a del toro fan. No point discussing numbers or this i suspect you dont watch much now but rather think its 2022 still cause this aint hard.miguel13-11-2026
- We can go through metrics if you like, Del Toro, who I do admire and support, is not on the same level as Jonas just yet. You will see that in early 2027 if they have any crossover races. I do hope they both race the Giro. You are correct though, Jonas is getting older and will not be able to hand on much longer. I see 2027 as a good year for him. Obviously behind Tadej though.awp13-11-2026
- What wins? Are you LA operating under a pseudonym?mij13-11-2026
- My point is this - Tadej, Remco, Seixas are all the outliers. Many riders don’t hit their peak until 28. It’s way too early to write him off. And the pogi slo guy that hates him - he’s also immature. Ayuso needs time.mij13-11-2026
- Then you need to use ur eyes or head if you have cause del toro already dropped jonas two times and beat him in tdf stages already this year.. Del toro climbed(dauphine) better numbers than jonas did all year too. So ur feelings and wishful thinking doesnt amtter del toro himself has already surpassed jonas infact just facts. Its also very evident for anyone objective that Jonas is declining alot, its just the truth and super obvious.miguel13-11-2026
- None of those victories stand, so there's that,wrsty13-11-2026
- No surprise there; it is British Sycling, yes, with an S
Rafionain-Glas12-11-2026 - I like Del Toro but he's not on the level of Jonas, by a large margin.awp12-11-2026
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