👊👊 𝐃𝐀𝐈nese‼ 🏆... victoria para 🇮🇹 @alberto_dainese - @TDSM_Firmenich 🏆... victory for Alberto Dainese in Íscar! #LaVuelta23 📸 @sprintcycling
PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 20 - Remco Evenepoel's last win opportunity, Sepp Kuss' red jersey final challenge and Jumbo-Visma celebrations
CyclingSaturday, 16 September 2023 at 10:50
Preview. Stage 20 of the Vuelta a Espana is a brutal day, but one where the overall classification is unlikely to change much, taking into consideration that Jumbo-Visma has full control of the race.
The final day of competitive racing. The Vuelta a Espana has once again surpassed itself in what has proven to be a very popular profile amongst fans. It is a confusing, messy, explosive day if you've ever seen one as a final GC challenge for a Grand Tour. It is in my eyes brilliant, the climbers have spent three weeks battling in the many mountain stages and summit finishes for the GC, but now in the final day they find a long day with 10 medium-sized categorized climbs, and plenty others.
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Stage 20: Manzanares El Real - Guadarrama, 207.9 kilometers
It is a bumpy ride in the Sierra de Madrid. The riders can see the finale but they first have 4400 meters of climbing, without a single long ascent. The day starts off immediately with a 10.8 kilometer climb at 3.4% - which is on profile a combination of two hilltops. Then follows a 7.1Km climb at 5% which is ultimately the longest of the day.
Then two laps of a circuit with La Escondida (8.8Km; 4.2%), Alto de Santa Maria de Alameda (5Km; 5.6%) and the Alto de Robledondo (3.9Km; 6.2%). This can be a key part of the course, in the space of 32 kilometers the riders find four ascents and nothing but descents inbetween, no flat terrain whatsoever (on both laps). On the final passage, they will have 84, 67 and 61 kilometers to the finish. After it's descent comes another uncategorized ascent with 2.6Km at 6.8% which ends at 46 kilometers to the finish in Guadarrama.
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Then the race can stabilize a bit, but it does not mean it'll get easier. The peloton tackles the Puerto de la Cruz Verde which is 7.3 kilometers at 3.9%, featuring a steeper finale than the average gradient suggests. The descent is steep and fast into the final climb. The riders enter San Lorenzo de El Escorial, town which has hosted on many occasions the end of the stage when these mountains are tackled.
This time however the riders climb through town, the final ascent of this race is 4.5 kilometers long at 6.6%, not too hard but it features a section as steep at 18%. It's such a harsh finale to the climbing in this race, riders will already have almost 200 kilometers of roller-coaster by this moment and the slightest of weak moments can lead to big losses and a complete change in the GC.
The riders descent back into the plain and then the final 8 kilometers will be flat. This will lead those who survived into Guadarrama for the finale of the stage, gaps aren't expected but there is still a mean ramp to the finish line.
The Weather
Map Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 20
Some rain quite posssibly and modest wind from the south. A change of weather, it will not be a pleasant day, and riders will have to be careful with the many descents on the day.
The Favourites
The fight for the win should be in the breakaway. A day like this is very hard to put on an organized chase, no-one is likely to help Jumbo-Visma, and the Dutch team have no reason to be pushing hard, they just want to keep the race as it is and into Madrid. The uphill start and long distance will then allow for a strong group to grow a big gap. And, the final day of racing, almost anyone will have freedom. Remco Evenepoel is the main favourite, he will have the space, despite his many wins it's a day so well suited to his capabilities. A long solo win is expected, but it can be a very hard task if other strong climbers get in the breakaway.
The likes of Wout Poels, Michael Storer, Romain Bardet... Even Finn Fisher-Black, taking into consideration that the climbs on the day are small. Riding uphill these are among the best in the race currently. It is a day that can suit both climbers and puncheurs, third week fatigue and tactics may also play an important role on such a stage.
Damiano Caruso, Antonio Tiberi, Romain Grégoire, Lennard Kämna, Andreas Kron, Rui Costa, Jesús Herrada, Pelayo Sánchez and Einer Rubio will be also possible favourites for the day.
When it comes to the fight for the overall classification, I don't expect much. Jumbo seem to have already decided that the victory is for Sepp Kuss, both Jonas Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic will be riding conservatively, in rhythm, the trio is likely to arrive at the finish together, and they can afford to be safe in the descents and even shed time on their rivals.
The fight for the fourth spot can be interesting however for sure. Juan Ayuso, Mikel Landa and Enric Mas sit 30 seconds apart. The gaps here are very small, one of them certainly will attack and try to net that top position from the 'best of the rest'. The gaps are very close however so it's unlikely that any of them will try to go from very far in a raid. That can happen with riders behind who are still in contention for the overall classification. These are Cian Uijtdebroeks, Aleksandr Vlasov, João Almeida and Santiago Buitrago.
Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 20:
*** Remco Evenepoel
** Andreas Kron, Wout Poels, Romain Bardet
* Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, Juan Ayuso, Finn Fisher-Black, Romain Grégoire, Michael Storer, Lennard Kämna, Rui Costa, Pelayo Sánchez
** Andreas Kron, Wout Poels, Romain Bardet
* Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, Juan Ayuso, Finn Fisher-Black, Romain Grégoire, Michael Storer, Lennard Kämna, Rui Costa, Pelayo Sánchez
Pick: Remco Evenepoel
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