PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2025 stage 3 - GC can explode on hilly finale to Uraidla
Cycling
Sam Welsford has thus far won both bunch sprints at the Tour Down Under, but stage 3 will be a completely different day. We preview the first important day for the overall classification, where we can see serious action.
Perhaps the trickiest stage of the race. Being the one with the toughest start, up Norton Summit which immediately climbs from the start, it does create the opportunity for a strong group to be formed - however it's unlikely that it will happen, as that's a rare occasion in this race. Most of the day is flat but the finale does throw in a few difficulties.
Another circuit finish, this one into Uraidla which is not the first time in recent years. We have got the climb to Pound Reserve which has a pretty steep ramp at it's start, it's 2.7 kilometers long at 7.7% and the pace at the start should be very high over positioning.
On this climb you can see attacks, dangerous ones from the main contenders for the GC. It ends with 6 kilometers to go but from there to the finish it's even more dangerous. The roads are up and down and to chase down any attack is almost impossible - specially if it's not a solo rider. All-in-all it's a perfect finale for opportunists, any attack can succeed as the finale is downhill and the speeds will be very high, with a small group to chase.
The Weather
Slightly lower temperatures, but the wind remains. It won't be overly strong, but it continues to blow from the south. It won't affect the day much, the finale isn't very exposed and although after the climb there is some headwind, it's mostly in downhill sections where it won't make much difference.
The Favourites
The first question is how will the stage be won, this can be a late attack or a sprint. An attack on the climb is unlikely to decide the winner, because it just isn't that hard and I don't think there's anyone above the competition here, it is possible to close attacks. An attack on the final kilometers is different, most riders will want others to close gaps, but this won't always happen. It's a finale designed for chaos, but a few riders can sprint and climb quite well, such as Corbin Strong and Jhonatan Narváez, and after the climb they may have a few riders commit to covering attacks or pacing in order to not let anyone get away.
Sprint? - A reduced sprint of couse, no more than 30, 40 riders, but amongst those can be some riders who have a fast finish. Israel have Stephen Williams, Michael Woods and George Bennett who can all be part of these late moves and have the upper hand. UAE on the other hand have riders like Jay Vine and Marc Soler who can attack just about anywhere in the finale, and Narváez can perhaps focus more on the sprint.
The likes of Laurence Pithie and Andrea Bagioli can be extremely dangerous, proper strong sprinters who at their best level can also do ascents like these with the best in this peloton. Astana duo Sergio Higuita and Ide Schelling can potentially be dangerous in a sprint... And then if it's not so hard of a climb in the peloton, riders like Bryan Coquard, Casper Pedersen, Lars Boven and Andrea Vendrame can be in the mix.
Late attack - The thing is, a late attack can either come from just about anyone and succeed due to it's timing, or a happy coincidence. This makes it very hard to predict who this man can be, specially as it's not such a selective stage. However there are indeed a few who are extremely powerful on the flat such as Luke Plapp, Alberto Bettiol, Georg Zimmermann and INEOS duo Magnus Sheffield and Michal Kwiatkowski.
But yes, many more can succeed with the same type of move, even if it's not exactly their specialty. Lidl-Trek are a threat, they have several quality riders... Patrick Konrad was in the break today to gather bonus seconds and Juan Pedro López attacked in the final climb, Bauke Mollema at his best can also be a headache for many in the peloton.
Mauro Schmid, William Lecerf Junior, Paul Lapeira, Bastien Tronchon, Finn Fisher-Black, Oscar Onley, Ion Izagirre, Javier Romo, Lukas Nerurkar and Damien Howson are all riders to keep an eye on.
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Prediction 2025 Tour Down Under stage 3:
*** Jhonatan Narváez, Laurence Pithie
** Corbin Strong, Luke Plapp, Alberto Bettiol
* Stephen Williams, Jay Vine, Marc Soler, Andrea Bagioli, Sergio Higuita, Lars Boven, Magnus Sheffield, Michal Kwiatkowski, Patrick Konrad, Mauro Schmid, Paul Lapeira, Finn Fisher-Black, Oscar Onley, Javier Romo
Pick: Jhonatan Narváez
Original: Rúben Silva
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- Great race! Tadej did everything he could to win but MVP showed why he's so great in the classics. There were no losers on the final podium.awp22-03-2025
- To me he lost the race when he wasn’t able to drop Van der Poel on either of the climbs. He will never beat him in a sprint. If the two go to the line together, Tadej loses.mij22-03-2025
- Sadly he lost the race when he let VDP get a small gap in the final 200 meters - maybe if he works on sprint tactics ? Similar thing happened at FlandersCrashjames22-03-2025
- It's better to win Tour de France than any race. For sure Pogi, losing or podium is not on his. He's face wanting to destroy ALL but MVDP is such a great champion 👏
James2631822-03-2025 - perfect description!
maria2024202422-03-2025 - Tadej awesome, as usual, he's a blessing to the cycling, always fighting, trying all kind of races. His team... mmmm. Fantastic Ganna! and enormous Mathieu. What a race!maria2024202422-03-2025
- That is an awesome podium alright. King of the classics, time trial demi-god, and the best all round road ridermobk22-03-2025
- Possibly the best MSR ever, Chapeau to each of the three, an incredible race to watch!slappers6622-03-2025
- Now that was an entertaining and exciting race finale. Chapeau to Mathieu on another MSR victory.
santiagobenites22-03-2025 - Well that was boring and predictable. Let's hope that the men's race is a little more exciting.santiagobenites22-03-2025