PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2025 stage 3 - GC can explode on hilly finale to Uraidla
Cycling
Sam Welsford has thus far won both bunch sprints at the Tour Down Under, but stage 3 will be a completely different day. We preview the first important day for the overall classification, where we can see serious action.
Perhaps the trickiest stage of the race. Being the one with the toughest start, up Norton Summit which immediately climbs from the start, it does create the opportunity for a strong group to be formed - however it's unlikely that it will happen, as that's a rare occasion in this race. Most of the day is flat but the finale does throw in a few difficulties.
Another circuit finish, this one into Uraidla which is not the first time in recent years. We have got the climb to Pound Reserve which has a pretty steep ramp at it's start, it's 2.7 kilometers long at 7.7% and the pace at the start should be very high over positioning.
On this climb you can see attacks, dangerous ones from the main contenders for the GC. It ends with 6 kilometers to go but from there to the finish it's even more dangerous. The roads are up and down and to chase down any attack is almost impossible - specially if it's not a solo rider. All-in-all it's a perfect finale for opportunists, any attack can succeed as the finale is downhill and the speeds will be very high, with a small group to chase.
The Weather
Slightly lower temperatures, but the wind remains. It won't be overly strong, but it continues to blow from the south. It won't affect the day much, the finale isn't very exposed and although after the climb there is some headwind, it's mostly in downhill sections where it won't make much difference.
The Favourites
The first question is how will the stage be won, this can be a late attack or a sprint. An attack on the climb is unlikely to decide the winner, because it just isn't that hard and I don't think there's anyone above the competition here, it is possible to close attacks. An attack on the final kilometers is different, most riders will want others to close gaps, but this won't always happen. It's a finale designed for chaos, but a few riders can sprint and climb quite well, such as Corbin Strong and Jhonatan Narváez, and after the climb they may have a few riders commit to covering attacks or pacing in order to not let anyone get away.
Sprint? - A reduced sprint of couse, no more than 30, 40 riders, but amongst those can be some riders who have a fast finish. Israel have Stephen Williams, Michael Woods and George Bennett who can all be part of these late moves and have the upper hand. UAE on the other hand have riders like Jay Vine and Marc Soler who can attack just about anywhere in the finale, and Narváez can perhaps focus more on the sprint.
The likes of Laurence Pithie and Andrea Bagioli can be extremely dangerous, proper strong sprinters who at their best level can also do ascents like these with the best in this peloton. Astana duo Sergio Higuita and Ide Schelling can potentially be dangerous in a sprint... And then if it's not so hard of a climb in the peloton, riders like Bryan Coquard, Casper Pedersen, Lars Boven and Andrea Vendrame can be in the mix.
Late attack - The thing is, a late attack can either come from just about anyone and succeed due to it's timing, or a happy coincidence. This makes it very hard to predict who this man can be, specially as it's not such a selective stage. However there are indeed a few who are extremely powerful on the flat such as Luke Plapp, Alberto Bettiol, Georg Zimmermann and INEOS duo Magnus Sheffield and Michal Kwiatkowski.
But yes, many more can succeed with the same type of move, even if it's not exactly their specialty. Lidl-Trek are a threat, they have several quality riders... Patrick Konrad was in the break today to gather bonus seconds and Juan Pedro López attacked in the final climb, Bauke Mollema at his best can also be a headache for many in the peloton.
Mauro Schmid, William Lecerf Junior, Paul Lapeira, Bastien Tronchon, Finn Fisher-Black, Oscar Onley, Ion Izagirre, Javier Romo, Lukas Nerurkar and Damien Howson are all riders to keep an eye on.
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Prediction 2025 Tour Down Under stage 3:
*** Jhonatan Narváez, Laurence Pithie
** Corbin Strong, Luke Plapp, Alberto Bettiol
* Stephen Williams, Jay Vine, Marc Soler, Andrea Bagioli, Sergio Higuita, Lars Boven, Magnus Sheffield, Michal Kwiatkowski, Patrick Konrad, Mauro Schmid, Paul Lapeira, Finn Fisher-Black, Oscar Onley, Javier Romo
Pick: Jhonatan Narváez
Original: Rúben Silva
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- Sigh, it's hard to deal with short tempered people no matter how great their achievements. Sooner or later, someone will get hurt.
KerisVroom16-04-2025 - Are you drunk? Every one agrees Mads has never been more slim (look at his climbin)g and this maybe takes the top of his sprintUpHill16-04-2025
- Eli was attacked by a guy wearing a Belgian scarf, was that the intoxication effect?Mistermaumau16-04-2025
- Exactly, and with Mads in the running, a quartet would have been formed, TP and MVDP would have had to exhaust themselves more to shake off both Mads and Jasper although MVDP could have played his lead-out role for Jasper again (remember, it was he who broke Jasper, not Tadej and I don’t think Tadej would have risked countless attacks noticing an unbudging MVDP (who’d constantly pull Jasper with him without Jasper having to go into the red)). Any of the possible scenarios would NOT have favoured Tadej and in a 4-way sprint at the end his most likely place would then have been 4th. In the end he can count himself quite fortunate with his 2nd. Don’t think there’s a market for games for budding cycling team managers managers, so let’s just stop the ifs and buts, if MVDP hadn’t been ill at Flanders, if Jonas hadn’t crashed before the last Tour, if Primoz hadn’t underestimated Tadej on the Planche des Belles Filles, if, if if works both ways.Mistermaumau16-04-2025
- For a moment there my brain registered Patrick L.Mistermaumau16-04-2025
- Tadej, STUPOR MUNDI.
maria2024202416-04-2025 - Why the random and unnecessary disrespect to Cadel? At least he didn't cheat like Contador.Pogboom16-04-2025
- If we're playing the "what if" game - I'd go further back to Mads getting a puncture and possibly being a favourite to win the race. He would have likely beat Tadej and MVDP in a sprint at the Velodrome. He appeared to be one of the stronger riders who faced some bad luck. But, that's just cycling. Wout could have very well won Paris-Roubaix in 2023 if he hadn't punctured in the last 10km. I wish Tadej hadn't crashed or would've caught up so all these stories of how Tadej should have won wouldn't exist, I think MVDP was the stronger rider in this particular race.JBlake16-04-2025
- There might be some truth to Visma's psychology being hurt by last year's crashes. But, definitely - Itzulia was a boycott because of the Organizer's and comments made by them this year again proves it is necessary. The crash profoundly changed the course of the season for several of the top riders, yet they got blamed for not being careful, going too fast, or. not knowing the roads enough.JBlake16-04-2025
- Someone else may be able to give better local context, but I don't think these type of incidents only happen to MVDP - although, it does seem to happen more often to him. Eli Iserbyt had beer thrown at him earlier this year, or Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard had chips thrown in their face during last year's Tour de France. The common theme is alcohol between most incidents, combined with being outdoors for a prolonged period of time. MVDP is also not very well-liked by many Belgian fans for his success, particularly against a rider like Wout. It's likely a combination of today's society, alcohol, some dislike towards the rider, and just being stupid. Hopefully real consequences might dissuade others from doing similar things.JBlake16-04-2025