Preview. Stage 4 of the Tour Down Under will be another day for the sprinters. The question on the table is quite simple: Can Sam Welsford take the third out of three sprint stages? Or will another fast man take advantage of a possible bad day?
Stage 4 to Port Elliot will also be short and just as suited to the sprinters. There will be very little obstacles to tackle en route to the finish line. A day that can be exposed to the wind as it takes place quite close to the coast and does not feature this time around the rolling terrain of the previous days.
Instead, the first half is pan-flat. We've got Gemmel Hill that summits with 48 kilometers to go however it doesn't pose much of a challenge, and the final third of the day isn't much of an issue profile wise. In the final few hundred meters there will be a fast approach to Port Eliott, a sharp final corner with just a few hundred meters to go means a race up to that point, and then an all-out sprint in the day that suits the fast men the best.
The Weather
Some southeastern wind. Hence, we will have a fast day on the bike, as a lot of it will have tailwind and crosswinds. In exposed roads, we will have a day that could have tense moments. This will include the final kilometers where there will be a meaningful cross-tailwind - whilst the finishing straight features a headwind.
The Favourites
Sam Welsford - This will be a third sprint day. It is almost impossible, under the conditions we've been seeing, that we'll have a strong breakaway that can fight for the win. Hence it's all about the fast men, and the fastest of all is Sam Welsford. Now well equipped with a premium leadout, the Australian has succeeded in both finales so far. Will he win a third time? I would say there is a very high chance, as there is no sign that BORA - hansgrohe won't be able to repeat the successful formula they've got.
The competition - Hence this becomes a matter of BORA against the rest. We don't have climbs, a technical finale or anything very specific that can derail their plans. It has to be someone beating the Australian head to head. In the first stage Biniam Girmay looked quite fast, and could perhaps be the main rival if he finds himself in the right spot. Phil Bauhaus packs a very strong punch in a pure sprint, and as Girmay, if he is in the right spot he may be able to strike.
The outsiders - Caleb Ewan was sixth today. He's not having the punch. Having been present in three sprints, he has not been able to finish above fourth, so it's safe to say it will be hard for him to contest for the win. For a podium however is very realistic. Today we've gotten Elia Viviani and Dan McLay finishing second and third and will be possibilities to be once again there with the best.
Max Kanter has been consistent and is quite a reliable figure for the sprint. Laurence Pithie, Alvaro Hodeg, Jhonatan Narváez, Emils Liepins and Corbin Strong are other riders to keep an eye out in the final sprint.
Also read
Isaac del Toro happy to survive first day in Tour Down Under lead: "Cycling is always full of chaos"
Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 stage 4:
*** Sam Welsford
** Biniam Girmay, Phil Bauhaus
* Caleb Ewan, Elia Viviani, Dan McLay, Max Kanter, Jhonatan Narváez
Pick: Sam Welsford
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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