Paris-Nice 2026 stage 4 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Can Jonas Vingegaard beat Ayuso and INEOS on queen stage?

The 2026 edition of Paris-Nice will be taking place from the 8th to the 15th of March and is, as every year, one of the key pro cycling events of the spring. It features opportunities for the climbers, sprinters and classics specialists alike. We preview stage 4, which is estimated to start and finish at 12:25 and 16:45CET.

The race was first held in 1933 and won by Belgian Alfons Schepers. Due to the race's nature, as the name says from Paris to Nice in the Mediterraneen sea; it is often called the 'Race to the Sun', and on the road that is quite literally often the case. It is an event, with 8 days in duration, that has crowned some of the sport's very best over the generations. Jacques Anquetil, Tom Simpson, Eddy Merckx, Raymond Poulidor, Joop Zoetemelk, Seak Kelly (the record holder, winning every single edition from 1982 to 1988), Miguel Indurain, Laurent Jalabert...

The list goes on and on, and in recent years the race hasn't lost any of its meaning. Modern legends such as Alberto Contador, Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar have all inserted their names onto the history books. In 2025, it was Matteo Jorgenson who took the overall win, defending it successfully with a performance that spanned great stages in all terrains.

The riders arrive to the hills, a traditional sight at Paris-Nice. However on stage 4, the rugged terrain only becomes part of the day in its final third. It's not overly hard, but instead an interesting finale where climbers and classics riders can mix it up together.

A penultimate climb of 4.7 kilometers at 5.3% is going to be tackled with 23 kilometers to go, however, as is the case with the final climb, it features ramps that are significantly more steep, and its not a consistent climb.

However most efforts will be saved towards the summit finish into Uchon. The climb in total is 8 kilometers long at 4.5%, but this average hides very important details. The riders will all be saving their legs towards the final 1.8 kilometers where the gradients average over 10%. It is an explosive finale and here we can see important gaps being formed, with slipstreaming meaning very little in such a steep road.

With the rain falling and some crosswinds throughout the flat section of the stage, this is certainly going to be a tense day where the overall classification contenders have to be wary all day long. Not an easy stage to traverse, even though the profile doesn't show anything overly difficult. I would call this the queen stage because the summit finish to Auron is typically not steep enough to make serious differences whilst the final Nice stage is not a mountain day this time around. Hence, this opportunity has to be fully seized by those who want to make up time.

Juan Ayuso - The Spaniard is in the race lead, but in an inglorious position let's say. That is because although he carries the yellow jersey, he has only 2 and 3 seconds over the INEOS duo. On paper that is nothing because even a bonification can overturn that, but if an attack comes, he has the responsibility to chase. I don't think the Spaniard has much to worry about, it's not a stage that will be attacked hard, he just has to have the W/Kg in that finale. Historically, he doesn't do great in short efforts on steep climbs, but at the Volta ao Algarve he did very well on the Malhão which was a rather similar effort. Even packing a sprint, he could increase the lead for sure.

Jonas Vingegaard - Let's not pretend as if the Visma rider is perfectly suited to this finale, but he has little other option. Visma is the team that carries most of the responsibility to push, as hard and as early as possible so as to make the final 1.8 kilometers as best suited to the pure climber attributes of the Dane. This should be doable, but it will come down to him at the end. At his best level he can certainly take the win, even potentially move into yellow, but I don't think we will see that level just yet.

INEOS - A good position, and a good stage for their current GC situation. There is no deciding on whether to prioritize Oscar Onley or Kévin Vauquelin, they can both do quite well in this finale and they will both do their race. I think Onley is a tad bit more explosive, but in all honesty Vauquelin is a former runner-up at Flèche Wallonne. I think both are very well suited to this type of effort and they can afford to play any tactic they want in the final climb.

Last year in a similar summit finish it was Lenny Martínez who took the stage win, on the day Jonas Vingegaard infamously crashed. I wouldn't take that out of the equation honestly, the lightweight Frenchman is a fan of these ultra-steep climbs for obvious reasons and he is also in good form, making him an obvious contender for the stage win, although the yellow jersey isn't realistic at any point in the race.

Daniel Martínez in the meantime is a man to watch out for, he and Aleksandr Vlasov are good for these kinds of one-week races and I expect good performances from them; whilst someone like Harold Tejada, Brandon McNulty and Ion Izagirre are virtually the same, only a small level below on paper. Adding to the equation are Alex Baudin, Iván Romeo, David Gaudu, Nicolas Prodhomme, Valentin Paret-Peintre and Steff Cras, all riders who should want to contest for the overall classification.

*** Oscar Onley, Juan Ayuso, Jonas Vingegaard
** Lenny Martínez, Daniel Martínez, Kévin Vauquelin
* Aleksandr Vlasov, Alex Baudin, David Gaudu, Brandon McNulty, Nicolas Prodhomme, Ion Izagirre, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Harold Tejada

Pick: Oscar Onley

How: Sprint between the main GC men.