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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 6 - Can Mark Cavendish go for victory number 36?
CyclingThursday, 04 July 2024 at 10:24
The Tour de France has only had five stages so far but every single day has been a great story. This Wednesday was no exception as Mark Cavendish raced to Tour de France history with a record-breaking 35th win. Stage 6 is another chance for the sprinters to thrive but it will be very difficult to top the emotion of the past two sprints.
Stage 6 of the Tour should be a calm day on the bike, with only 163 kilometers to race, mostly completely flat with a finale into Dijon. A small fourth category ascent early in the day, but after that it is just an old-school Tour day where there is nothing to keep an eye on besides the final sprint.
Stage 6: Mâcon - Dijon, 163 kilometers
This will be an urban sprint, but not a technical one. The peloton will arrive in the city very fresh after a short and easy day on the bike, which will mean speeds will be very high. There isn't any meaningful features except for a big roundabout that comes with 700 meters to go. A race to this point, and then finally the sprint only seconds after.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 6
The weather can really mix things up! Don't expect more breakaway action but instead a tense and fast day in the peloton. Possible rain in the forecast, but also the wind will blow relatively strong from the west. Crosswind throughout almost the whole day are expected, only in the final kilometers does it switch to a cross-headwind. In the final sprint this should not make a difference.
The Favourites
Mark Cavendish - He's done it. Cavendish has now officially beaten the Tour de France stage win record after many years remaining in the peloton in search of this sole goal. In all honesty he could just ride the rest of the Tour de France in the back of the peloton and it wouldn't really matter because he's done what he wanted. He can still increase it however. Certainly a hard task, but the pressure is completely off and this may even help him. Today was a perfect finale for him in my opinion, tomorrow not, but Astana do still have a very strong leadout to take him to the line.
Jasper Philipsen - Philipsen has not been on a roll this summer, but today he showed what he wanted. The Alpecin-Deceuninck leadout is strong but this is a race where you have to depend on feel. Today he followed the right wheels but simply did not have the kick to beat Cavendish. However he was close, and in better circumstances tomorrow he may finally win a stage as he's been seeking this week.
The stage is flat but this time around wind may make it harder and perhaps more selective. The chances of that happening are not too big, but certainly a few riders could benefit from that such as Alexander Kristoff, Mads Pedersen (if he recovers from today's crash), Arnaud De Lie... Riders that are suited to racing in the rough weather and are strong classics riders. However in general it'll be another sprint to trust instinct and not be completely reliable on the leadout.
In the pure speed factor we still have Dylan Groenewegen and Fernando Gaviria for example, but like all other sprinters, they simply have to nail positioning and timing to perfection. So there's not too much more insight that can be given, since this will apply to all other sprinters.
We've got Phil Bauhaus, Sam Bennett, Fabio Jakobsen, Bryan Coquard, Biniam Girmay, Gerben Thijssen, Arnaud Démare, Marijn van den Berg and Pascal Ackermann also to consider in this finale. Who knows, we may get a third surprise sprint victory.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 6:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Mark Cavendish
** Dylan Groenewegen, Arnaud De Lie, Alexander Kristoff
* Mads Pedersen, Fernando Gaviria, Phil Bauhaus, Sam Bennett, Fabio Jakobsen, Biniam Girmay, Arnaud Démare
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
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