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PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 stage 4 - Van der Poel, Van Aert, Alaphilippe and Pidcock among favourites for hilltop finish
CyclingThursday, 09 March 2023 at 10:51
Preview. After a few days suited to the sprinters on flat roads, stage 4 will provide an opportunity for the climbers and GC contenders to come to the front and battle for their own chances of taking a big win.
Stage 4 will be a perfect one for the puncheurs preparing for the Ardennes classics and possibly Milano-Sanremo. The climbers could have their day depending on how it's raced. It starts out relatively gentle, at higher altitude and with some rolling roads but nothing out of the ordinary. Everything is to be decided on the final circuit.
Start Time: 10:20CET
Finish Time: 16:00CET
Stage 4: Greccio - Tortoreto, 219 kilometers
The ascent to Tortoreto will be raced three times in quick succession and it has 3.2 kilometers at 7%, an interesting challenge. Before the three final laps the riders climb to the finishing line over a steeper and more inconsistent vertent, however the stage will be decided in the climb below.
It's not a consistent climb. It isn't too inconsistent but it features many turns and a few hairpins which make it just a bit harder than the gradients should suggest. A reduced group sprint is quite likely but late attacks could succeed.
Tortoreto: 3.2Km; 6.9%
The Weather
Tirreno-Adriatico stage 4 map
The weather becomes more gentle to the riders. Warmer temperatures and virtually no wind throughout most of the day. It'll be a day where the weather shouldn't affect the outcome of the day.
The Favourites
Mathieu van der Poel - How good is his form? Not that high it seems, this won't be an ideal finale for van der Poel but it is certain that he'll test himself. More of an outsider but one that, if he reaches the finish, could be very hard to outsprint.
Jumbo-Visma - The Dutch team have taken to the front everyday so far and will certainly do it again. Wout van Aert is going to test his legs but I'm unsure if he's still capable of fighting for victory. On a good day yes, without a doubt. The Dutch team have Primoz Roglic who on a good day would also be a prime favourite. But Jumbo still have weapons in Wilco Kelderman, Tiesj Benoot and Attila Valter all of which are riders who could very well win on a finale like this.
INEOS - Tom Pidcock will be their main weapon with no doubt. On great form, he should easily be able to cope with the climb, and when it comes to explosivity it'll be hard to see anyone take over him. INEOS have Filippo Ganna who will want to preserve the race, lead, however the team also has cards to play in Tao Geoghegan Hart and Thymen Arensman who may do leadout as well as late attacks.
UAE - A more climber-set lineup, if UAE want to win they will certainly have to attack. Adam Yates and João Almeida will have better suited terrain later in the race and Brandon McNulty has not looked so good so far this season - although a good time-trial here may be a sign of change. If they get their tactics right they may surprise however.
Quick-Step - They will only be focused on the stage win but they have the weapons for that. Julian Alaphilippe has recently taken a strong win which is a great sign for this stage. He and Andrea Bagioli should have enough to withstand the climbing and when it comes to explosivity they both have what it takes.
There will be some climbers, some of those which have the explosivity necessary for such a finish. Enric Mas has shown great form in these hard finales recently and will definitely be a big contender, whilst the likes of Aleksandr Vlasov, Giulio Ciccone and Santiago Buitrago have proved in the past to thrive as well in this kind of climb. Jai Hindley, Mikel Landa, Ben O'Connor and Guillaume Martin are more of the pure climber type but do stand a chance.
In the field of the puncheurs, outside of those already previously mentioned, there is still a very luxurious field. Benoît Cosnefroy, Alex Aranburu, Valentin Madouas, Alexey Lutsenko and Michael Woods are all riders who can realistically sprint for the win or with a late attack for victory in a finale like this.
Victor Lafay, Warren Barguil and Lorenzo Rota form a sort of third line for the puncheurs, but is nevertheless a set of riders who is also capable of riding with the very best in a hilltop finish such as this one, and could surprise with an attack.
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 stage 4:
*** Tom Pidcock, Julian Alaphilippe
** Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, João Almeida, Giulio Ciccone
* Mathieu van der Poel, Tiesj Benoot, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Santiago Buitrago, Jai Hindley, Mikel Landa, Benoît Cosnefroy, Alex Aranburu, Valentin Madouas
** Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, João Almeida, Giulio Ciccone
* Mathieu van der Poel, Tiesj Benoot, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Santiago Buitrago, Jai Hindley, Mikel Landa, Benoît Cosnefroy, Alex Aranburu, Valentin Madouas
Pick: Tom Pidcock
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