Turin (Venaria Realte) - Novara, 186.7 kilometers
It will be all about the finale in Novara where the first red jersey is going to be attributed in a bunch sprint. It's a flat finale and one that is quite straightforward but there are a few roundabouts that will stretch things out, and will also increase the tension quite a lot.
The Weather
Map Vuelta a España 2025 stage 1
Little southern breeze and some sunny weather (with very small chance of rain). Nothing unusual.
The Favourites
Mads Pedersen - The Dane is in great form, but the fact is that this is a pure sprint stage and in this scenario he does not have the advantage that his climbing and endurance skills bring. He also does not have a proper leadout, but Daan Hoole and Soren Kragh Andersen will be able to keep him in position and likely in the right wheels ahead of the sprint. Still form is on his side, and he could on paper beat a non-perfect Philipsen.
Jasper Philipsen - A late addition to the race, because his Tour de France ended abruptly on the third day. There, the Belgian won the first stage and he could do it again here. On paper he is by far the strongest sprinter but in real terms his form is still far from ideal which can cost him a lot. Still, under regular circumstances, he will be the main favourite, although Alpecin's leadout is also nothing to brag about.
With all due to respect to the riders but this is a very poor sprinting field at the Vuelta, there are countless non World-Tour events that can comfortably surpass it and this has been the case for several years now. No, there is no-one who can realistically win the stage if one of the two riders above are in good form.
Casper van Uden is perhaps the one who would get the closest, but the Team Picnic PostNL leader also does not have a leadout to try and get ahead of the competition. You could say Israel - Premier Tech would have a leadout to contest but it's not clear whether Ethan Vernon or Jake Stewart will sacrifice for one another or both sprint for their own result.
INEOS have two fast riders, not sprinters, but they are powerful. Because it's in Italy and close to Filippo Ganna's home I'd assume they will support him and have Ben Turner help with the leadout. Other sprinters present will be Bryan Coquard, Axel Zingle, Arne Marit, Elia Viviani, Stanislaw Aniolkowski and Madis Mihkels.
Prediction Vuelta a España 2025 stage 1:
*** Jasper Philipsen
** Mads Pedersen
* Casper van Uden, Ethan Vernon, Jake Stewart, Orluis Aular, Madis Mihkels, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Filippo Ganna
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
How: Regular bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva