PREVIEW | E3 Saxo Classic 2024 - Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert's first battle with brutal cobbled climbs on the menu

The E3 Saxo Classic stands as the premier warm-up classic leading up to the Tour of Flanders. This challenging Belgian race showcases the region's iconic climbs and is scheduled for March 22nd. Let's preview this upcoming event.

This race is what I consider the main warm up for the Tour des Flanders. It features an hour less of racing in comparison to the second monument of the season, however the profile is very similar and the race is to be decided on a very similar set of climbs.

With 207 kilometers on the menu it’s still a fairly long race. When the race hits 120 kilometers to go it will see an increase in activity as the peloton enter the bergs, and with 80 kilometers to go it will go through the Taaienberg which may be the first big point of selection in the peloton.

Afterwards, a series of paved climbs and the Stationsberg which comes with 57.5Km to go, these can be points of attack for those looking to anticipate the big climbs which will follow.

The order is the opposite of Flanders here, as the Paterberg/Oude Kwaremont combo sees the short ascent first, and it comes with 43.5 kilometers to go, still quite far away from the finish but with it’s toughness it will inevitably cause damage in the peloton.

With 38.5 kilometers to go comes the Oude Kwaremont. In very quick succession, these two ascents will be the platform for the main attacks from the race favourites who want to make their moves on the bergs. With 30 and 20 kilometers to go there are some small bergs, and a cobbled sector aswell with 22Km to go. These won’t be as hard, however after a hard race they can be used to create further damage, however it is more expected that groups will try to consolidate their gaps.

The final 20 kilometers will be essentially pan-flat, and it is possible to organize a chase with the goal of catching smaller groups or an eventual solo rider that may be in front. This flat section will force a lot of tactical decisions, and should be crucial for the outcome.

They are roads where you can put on a chase, but simultaneously big splits are frequent in E3. Those racing for victory and starting the flat section in the lead have the advantage.

The Weather

Some wind from the southeast that is meaningful. In the climbs it won't really be felt, neither it will during the combination of ascents. In the run-up to the line we will mostly have a crosswind all the way back into Harelbeke. In a final sprint however it will be a tailwind.

The Favourites

Mathieu van der Poel - Milano-Sanremo was his season debut but the form is there, have no doubt. Van der Poel was the only one matching Tadej Pogacar at the Poggio and he should be in similar conditions here at E3. Second to van Aert last year, he knows this is a race where he can be beaten even in the best of conditions, but this is - like van Aert - not his biggest goal. The World Champion will very likely want to attack from very early on to try and split Visma, have one rider with him and not undergo the swarm of attacks that may happen otherwise. Soren Kragh Andersen is a good right-hand man but van der Poel has here his ultimate warm-up for how he will also have to race Flanders.

Team Visma - Lease a Bike - At the Opening Weekend Visma played with the competition. Rightfully so, they had their A-game there and lacked riders like van der Poel and Pedersen. That is not the case here, and they do not have Christophe Laporte who is ill. A race this tough is much harder to play tactically, but it is still possible as long as they open things up from very early on. The likes of Matteo Jorgenson and Jan Tratnik are extremely dangerous, but attacking uphill will see a response from van der Poel.

They must attack inbetween climbs, at a point where the race is split enough that there won't be teams organizing a chase. That is tough to measure. Otherwise, Wout van Aert could opt to not work with other riders in front to favour entrance of teammates, but he is not known to do that. Tiesj Benoot and Dylan van Baarle provide further ammunition for an offensive battle against the riders they'll face in Flanders.

Mads Pedersen - The Dane is a terrific rider for races like this, specially where the two main favourites may play poker with each other. The leader of a strong Lidl-Trek packs a very strong sprint in any occasion, but he can also climb with the best. Lacking the long distance of Flanders he may not love E3 as much, but he will definitely be a candidate for victory. He has been racing just as well this spring as he has the last one and in my opinion he will be the ultimate wildcard for victory. Jasper Stuyven looked quite good at Milano-Sanremo and honestly he can surely play a role in this race, Toms Sku

The race will be split and certainly decided in the small and explosive climbs. We've got riders like Tim Wellens who has shown great form throughout the spring and is expected to also have the legs to match some important attacks. He and Nils Politt have both shown great form this spring. Uphill it's hard to match the best, but the likes of Alberto Bettiol and Arnaud De Lie could also be up there, as long as they have their best form - the latter is not too likely, as he's been recently ill.

Others will need to play tactically perhaps to match the best, but they certainly can. The likes of Matej Mohoric, Stefan Küng, Oier Lazkano and Magnus Sheffield are very much riders in my radar mainly as they all ae brilliant rouleurs.

In a sprint, either for the podium or Top10 results, we could certainly see Michael Matthews do quite well after his incredible Milano-Sanremo. Casper Pedersen, Biniam Girmay, Luca Mozzato, Danny van Poppel, Axel Zingle and Matteo Trentin could certainly also do well in a sprint.

Do not discard then the likes of Kasper Asgreen, Julian Alaphilippe, Oliver Naesen, Bastien Tronchon, Valentin Madouas, Jhonatan Narváez, Krists Neilands and Rasmus Tiller who can also be up there in the fight for the Top10.

Prediction E3 Saxo Classic 2024:

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert
** Mads Pedersen, Michael Matthews, Tim Wellens, Matteo Jorgenson
* Jan Tratnik, Dylan van Baarle, Jasper Stuyven, Matej Mohoric, Jhonatan Narváez, Nils Politt, Arnaud De Lie, Oier Lazkano

Pick: Matteo Jorgenson