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PREVIEW | E3 Saxo Classic 2023 - Mini Tour of Flanders sees another battle between van der Poel, Pogacar and van Aert
CyclingFriday, 24 March 2023 at 10:38
Preview. The E3 Saxo Classic has for many years been a cornerstone of the spring campaign and in 2023 it will be no different. The classic will see the riders go over the bergs of Flanders in what is the race most similar to the Tour de Flanders on the 24th of March.
This race is what I consider the main warm up for the Tour des Flandres. It features hour and a half less of racing in comparison to the second monument of the season, however the profile is very similar and the race is to be decided on a very similar set of climbs.
Start Time: 12:15CET.
Finish Time: 17:00CET.
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Harelbeke - Harelbeke, 205 kilometers
With 205 kilometers on the menu it’s still a fairly long race. When the race hits 120 kilometers to go it will see an increase in activity as the peloton enter the bergs, and with 80 kilometers to go it will go through the Taaienberg which may be the first big point of selection in the peloton.
Afterwards, the Eikenberg comes with 61.5Km to go, and the Stationsberg comes with 57.5Km to go, these can be points of attack for those looking to anticipate the big climbs which will follow.
The order is the opposite of Flandres here, as the Paterberg/Oude Kwaremont combo sees the short ascent first, and it comes with 42.5 kilometers to go, still quite far away from the finish but with it’s toughness it will inevitably cause damage in the peloton.
Paterberg: 400 meters; 13.5%; 42.5Km to go
With 37.5 kilometers to go comes the Oude Kwaremont. In very quick succession, these two ascents will be the platform for the main attacks from the race favourites who want to make their moves on the bergs. With 30 and 20 kilometers to go there are some small bergs, and a cobbled sector aswell with 22Km to go. These won’t be as hard, however after a hard race they can be used to create further damage, however it is more expected that groups will try to consolidate their gaps.
Oude Kwaremont: 2.5Km; 3.7%; 37.5Km to go
The final 20 kilometers will be essentially pan-flat, and it is possible to organize a chase with the goal of catching smaller groups or an eventual solo rider that may be in front. This flat section will force a lot of tactical decisions, and should be crucial for the outcome.
They are roads where you can put on a chase, but simultaneously big splits are frequent in E3. Those racing for victory and starting the flat section in the lead have the advantage.
E3 Saxo Classic Finale
The Weather
Map E3 Saxo Classic 2023
As was the case too in De Panne, the weather is quite horrible. The peloton will suffer, there will be some rain very likely, and the winds will blow very hard. Several parts of the route are quite exposed. This will be coming strongly from the southwest constantly throughout the day.
Early in the day it will be very dangerous, splits can legitimately happen right from the first kilometers before even the first sector. In the bergs direction changes will be constant, but that will depend a lot on the riders. The final kilometers following the climbs will mostly see a crosswind from the left. Even if a large group would survive, attacks can definitely succeed in the flat roads.
The Favourites
Jumbo - Visma - They are the team to beat. The startlist is incredibly luxurious, but I think Jumbo-Visma have the strongest team and they impose themselves the responsibility to win. This is not always good, but at the same time they have the cards. Tiesj Benoot and Nathan van Hooydonck absolutely thrived at Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne and raced alongside the best at the time. Christophe Laporte was incredibly strong on both races in the Opening weekend.
Dylan van Baarle is a very smart rider with a massive engine and his win at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad proved Jumbo have the perfect tactics for him. And all this was done without Wout van Aert who's only making his cobbled classics debut tomorrow. Having the numbers mean they will surely attack early, and their depth can make it a nightmare for other teams to manage.
Mathieu van der Poel - After his Sanremo win who knows. His form looked modest beforehand, but I have to assume he's already returned to his best level now. Hence it will be tricky to leave van der Poel behind, a really hard challenge for an aggressive rider. However Alpecin-Deceuninck also carry serious firepower in Soren Kragh Andersen who rode to sixth in Milano-Sanremo.
Tadej Pogacar - UAE are on quite the confidence roll. Quite a strong team, and if Tim Wellens shows the form he's had on the opening weekend it's an incredibly strong lineup. They have the weapons to attack, and the weather is good for both. Pogacar won't be afraid to attack, in fact he's expected to, this is a mini Tour des Flandres, he's got great form and you saw how he rode the cobbles last year.
Soudal - Quick-Step - Julian Alaphilippe crashed at Milano-Sanremo, I think that gave him a justification for coming through the finish just outside the Top10. The consistency isn't quite there yet. The Belgian team can thrive in the crosswinds as shown again in De Panne, but they need much more than that here. The Frenchman is their best option, and the one for the climbs. Kasper Asgreen and Yves Lampaert will provide depth but they must anticipate rival teams if they want to be able to use it. Davide Ballerini will also serve as a card for a sprint behind.
Mads Pedersen - The big man! Whenever you find a rainy, horrible, disgusting day out on the road you can expect Mads Pedersen to be near the front. His form is on point, he won't have an easy time managing the expected attacks on the climbs, but he can surely resist and find alliances. His strong sprint will be a danger, but the presence of van Aert, van der Poel and Pogacar will see him ride without the pressure of being 'the' sprinter. Jasper Stuyven also showed good form at Milano-Sanremo and will be an outsider.
Stefan Küng & Valentin Madouas - Two dangerous men. Küng was incredibly consistent last year and wrapped the podium in this race. The weather could favour him and he's been under the radar building his form towards the cobbles. As for Madouas he struggled during Tirreno-Adriatico, but his second place at Strade Bianche indicates that at his best he's ready to fight for victory here.
Filippo Ganna - One of the biggest wildcards. His level currently is very high and Sanremo will put hopes up very high on many. The rough weather and crosswinds are actually good for him, he seems to thrive under such conditions. The form and a good team are there, so it'll all be about how he can climb. Although he flew on the Poggio, you can't expect an 85-kilogram rider to fly up 15% cobbled gradients as will be the case often here. It won't be easy for the Italian who isn't an expert on this type of race, but he definitely has the potential.
Matej Mohoric - Perhaps a race for the Slovenian? His form looked sharper earlier in the spring. He has not lost it, but the climbs in Sanremo suited him better and he couldn't keep up in the end. He's got great endurance and tactical expertize, but he will have difficulties following if the attacks come on the toughest climbs.
Those will be the main favourites. Then there will be outsiders. Some in great form, others not so much but with incredible amounts of experience of strong results in the past in these results. Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke and AG2R duo Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen feature in the latter perfectly. At their best level they may still perform quite well, and AG2R have Benoît Cosnefroy who's trying himself out in the cobbles. Nils Politt is also a bit of an outsider I reckon, as is Jhonatan Narváez who performed very well here last year.
From the more serious contenders, the men in form however you find Alberto Bettiol. He's not certainly in good form but looked very good before abandoning Strade Bianche, and is a former winner in this region with a very experienced team. Matteo Jorgenson has left Paris-Nice in flying form finishing eighth but riding an incredibly strong race in the mountains. Anthony Turgis will be another, having just finished in the Top10 of Milano-Sanremo.
The race won't come down to a sprint - of many riders at least. Some very fast men have been mentioned above, but others can be in contention for a place in the Top10 or even more. They will generally also be riders that will be putting pressure on many others to attack. Biniam Girmay and Alexander Kristoff are most likely to the fastest finishers out of those. Arkéa Samsic also bring in a very sharp team with Luca Mozzato, Matis Louvel and Jenthe Biermans. Simone Consonni, Fernando Gaviria and Jordi Meeus may also shoot their shot.
Prediction E3 Saxo Bank Classic 2023:
*** Wout van Aert, Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel
** Dylan van Baarle, Christophe Laporte, Mads Pedersen
* Tiesj Benoot, Soren Kragh Andersen, Tim Wellens, Julian Alaphilippe, Stefan Küng, Valentin Madouas, Filippo Ganna, Matej Mohoric, Anthony Turgis
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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