POLL | Rating the chances of winning 2024 Tour de France: Tadej Pogacar; Jonas Vingegaard; Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel
Cycling
Of course, other riders will be in the battle and nothing is certain in November. However, as the 2024 Tour de France takes shape and riders talk about their interest, we've got an idea of what will be taking place in July. How do you think Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel will do next July?
Jonas Vingegaard - The defending champion. Jonas Vingegaard is a man for the Tour de France, he's won it twice in a row now and is an incredible Grand Tour specialist - the way few are in modern cycling. Although the explosive start and gravel may be a pebble in his shoe, Jumbo-Visma have proven to be a well capable team of resolving problems in any field. If the gaps are left to be made against the clock and in the mountains, then it will be hard to overcome Vingegaard.
His run of form from the Criterium du Dauphiné all the way to the Vuelta a Espana this year was nothing but impressive, this is a rider capable of tackling 21 days of all-out racing and arriving at the end fresher then the rest. The colossal mountain days are also his terrain and where the biggest gaps may form. This should mean that in normal circumstances he will be the man to beat, but Tadej Pogacar could be able to seize any weak spot.
“The third week seems harder than it was this year. It’s always in the third week where you can really make a big difference. For me, that’s what suits me – I’m still good in the third week, so this course suits me."
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Tadej Pogacar - Two-time winner and main rival of Jonas Vingegaard. Pogacar is a rider that puts more emphasis into other goals throughout the year - with great success, such as the spring classics and Il Lombardia. Whilst this other focus may hamper his Tour chances slightly, he's proven to be at the same level as Vingegaard throughout the grand majority of mountain stages, and above when it comes to hilly and explosive terrain.
With a gravel stage present, tension will certainly be high but this terrain highly favours the Slovenian, a former winner of Strade Bianche and tremendous bike handler. UAE Team Emirates are unlikely to stand behind Jumbo-Visma, it is highly likely that Juan Ayuso and João Almeida will race alongside Pogacar. He has expressed desire to race the other Grand Tours, but showing such love for the 2024 course is a great indicator that he will not miss it.
"Spending the Tour on roads where I train most of the year will be special. Just seeing the profiles, this end of the journey makes me smile. It really is full of promise."
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Primoz Roglic - Winner of the Vuelta a Espana on three occasions and now the Giro d'Italia. Primoz Roglic was a winner of almost everything he raced in 2023, with the exception of the Vuelta - where he won two stages and finished third. The Vuelta exactly stirred his departure from Jumbo-Visma, as he seeks sole leadership and a team fully behind him. He's got one now at BORA - hansgrohe and he is set on one sole and specific victory: the Tour de France.
It will be very interesting to see how he will do against former teammate Jonas Vingegaard, and how he hangs on in the high mountains. Hilly terrain and time-trials shouldn't see him lose time on his rivals. The high mountains may be a bigger issue, but one where he obviously still has the legs. A new big team joins the fun to fight for the Tour de France in BORA and we'll have to see the block that will be formed around the Slovenian to tackle this mammoth task.
“It's no secret that we want to win the Tour of France. That may sound absurd, but we believe in it and will do everything we can to achieve it."
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Remco Evenepoel - The wildcard. Remco Evenepoel had it clear that 2024 would be his Tour de France debut year, after several attempts at the Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a Espana. Both Grand Tours this year had mishaps which didn't see him end high in the GC - once for Covid-19, but at the Vuelta a Espana a bad day which created worries within Soudal - Quick-Step. Whilst he continues to lead the team (which almost merged with Jumbo-Visma) and has the likes of Mikel Landa and Ilan van Wilder likely to support him, it will be a new and different experience.
It's a climbing-heavy route with a gravel stage which he was clearly not a fan of. Patrick Lefevere also expressed doubts about his focus on the Tour, and hinted that he may go for the pink jersey in May once again. Uncertainty still rules of the Belgian's camp. If he prepares fully and avoids mishaps he is a podium contender at worst, the time-trials will suit him well and he's proven to be able to climb extremely well, he will either ways want to gather the experience regardless of the legs he presents in France.
"There are specific events and championships for gravel racing. Why do they need to add such stages to a Grand Tour? I don't think that's necessary."
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Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- You can clearly see the the posture change from slightly sitting to again out of the saddle while changing of gears in the video of the sprintabstractengineer08-11-2026
- He has already beaten Pogi twice in the TDF. the achievement is over. He cannot beat Pogi now and he only has a few years left at the top. Win Giro and compete in the TDF, maximise palmares.abstractengineer08-11-2026
- Just looked again at the photo. Yeah I stand by that. If MS had fallen over in Brands direction I don’t even think she would have hit her. You must be a UCI race commissioner. I’ll be sure to check my sock height should I ever see you on a ride. Looks like everyone else on here sees what I see.mij08-11-2026
- I said looking at the photo it doesn’t appear she deviated. Chill out, not stating my word is the final judgement. Just commenting that based on the photo I don’t see it. And BTW the Dutch coach even said she didn’t impede her.mij08-11-2026
- Blah Blah Blah !frieders308-11-2026
- MS said she was changing gears so that caused her slight deviation. Nothing was intentional.frieders308-11-2026
- How can you use a photo post incident to judge the incident itself (which is not hard to find if you’re prepared to invest the same amount of time in searching as writing that comment? It’s harsh but technically right even though this or worse is not always sanctioned in every race. The two things that went against MS (who unfortunately for her would still have won without making her mistake) are that it was not a bunch sprint where there could have been an overlooked incident or mitigating circumstances explaining a deviation. Everything was focused on just those 2, Schreiber was riding beautifully balanced which made her sudden deviation look unnatural stroke as if it could have been in some part intentional whilst she was slowly drifting ever closer towards the barrier to a point that would have reached obstruction level. In her defence, it might have been the realisation she was heading towards that that made her react suddenly and caused the deviation involuntarily. In any case, congratulations to her for the ride of her life, in people’s minds she will be credited for it.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Good boy Obviously doesn’t need that much help dealing with pressure, as some have suggested. Wiser (and humbler) than many far further along their careers. About offering him the moon, recently someone came up with an explanation of the downfall of a football great (either referring to Maradona or Portuguese Ronaldo) saying it was kind of normal after coming back from the moon, except that others, including some who actually did go to the moon like Armstrong (Neil in case anyone is too switched off to realise) didn’t go through any of the same motions after coming back. A lot of how you deal with situations has less to do with the situation than with your character.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- I think that they're not really used to dealing with this type of incident in a cyclocross race, and the situation has been magnified because it was a race for a championship title. It's very unfortunate that the race had to be decided in this way.
santiagobenites07-11-2026 - Seriously why do they keep doing stupid things like this. Its one thing to relegate when the placings are minor, when the action is blatant. But when it is ambiguous, why dont they at least take advice from some higher up to avoid embarrassing themselves. This is similar to the Halland goal when his teammate was clearly offside and interfered in play and VAR gave them the goal. if you dont have evidence you cannot convict. Even for doping they have these rulesabstractengineer07-11-2026
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