Pogacar or Vingegaard, who has the Tour de France advantage after 2025 spring for Johan Bruyneel?

The spring is over for both Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane has struggled, winning the Volta ao Algarve but crashing out of Paris-Nice where he last raced. Meanwhile Tadej Pogacar has raced and won a lot, but that does give him the advantage towards the Tour de France?

The truth is that the World Champion has looked just as strong this spring as he did in 2024, and his level towards the Tour could be extremely high once again - which would make the task for everyone extremely complicated. However there is also the fatigue factor - both mentally and physically, where it can be argued that the leader of Team Visma | Lease a Bike can have some advantage. Vingegaard has been, for months, specifically training towards the demands of the Tour de France, whilst Pogacar's focus has been on the one-day races.

“Jonas and the Visma squad need to fully believe in their plan," Johan Bruyneel argued in The Move podcast. "Remember, he had a hard crash and injured his wrist, but it is not nearly as bad as last year. Back then he was still in the hospital at this point. Now he is already deep into training.”

The two are set to go on a training camp in May, before (as it currently stands) going on to face off at the Criterium du Dauphiné, where throughout an entire week they should go head to head in the mountains. This will be a long week, weeks still before the start of the Grand Boucle. Vingegaard's focus and sole aim for the three-week race is something that can give him an advantage when the time comes, as well as coming in as the underdog in this two-man rivalry.

“They have to stay laser focused on that one goal and peak exactly when it matters. That gives them a mental advantage. Still, Pogacar has not shown a single weakness. Last year he was dominant but this spring he looks even stronger. And his UAE Team Emirates squad looks rock solid, which is not something you can really say about Visma right now.”

Remco Evenepoel was third last year and can be in the mix once again, but the Belgian pundit doesn't think that he will be at the level required to win the Tour yet: "They (Soudal - Quick-Step) rebuilt the team from a cobbled classics squad into one fully centered around Remco. They did a good job supporting him during the race, but if your leader is not on a good day, there is little you can do. But can he reach Pogacar’s level? At this moment, my answer is no.”