OPINION | Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Red Bull BORA-hansgrohe: Which teams and riders are most likely to dethrone UAE Team Emirates – XRG and Tadej Pogacar in 2025?

The 2024 cycling season was one of the most incredible seasons we have ever seen, orchestrated largely by UAE Team Emirates - XRG and the world’s best rider, Tadej Pogacar. Already a team of immense strength, UAE reached new heights in 2024, finishing as the number-one ranked squad in the UCI standings once again. What sets their 2024 achievement apart, however, is the sheer scale of their success. Amassing an incredible 37,407.6 points—nearly double the 20,428 points achieved by second-placed Team Visma | Lease a Bike—the squad left no doubt about their supremacy over their rivals.

This dominance was built on an extraordinary 81 victories, highlighted by Pogacar becoming the first man in the 21st century to complete cycling’s triple crown: winning the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, and the World Championships in the same season. Few teams, even those steeped in cycling history, have managed to achieve such a resounding level of superiority across all terrains and races.

Yet, cycling’s nature is cyclical. This time last year, Team Visma | Lease a Bike stood atop the sport after winning all three grand tours in 2023, with Primoz Roglic victorious at the Giro, Jonas Vingegaard prevailing comprehensively over Pogacar at the Tour, and Sepp Kuss claiming the Vuelta. That season was hailed as Visma’s coronation, but UAE’s resurgence in 2024 dethroned them decisively. As we look ahead to cycling in 2025, the question lingers: can any team, or any rider, rise to challenge UAE and Pogacar? Let’s examine the main contenders.

If there’s one rider who can derail Tadej Pogacar’s reign, it’s Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane has already shown he can outmatch Pogacar, doing so in both the 2022 and 2023 editions of the Tour de France. Their rivalry has come to define modern cycling, with the two riders winning each of the past five Tours between them. While Pogacar emerged victorious in 2024, Vingegaard’s past successes suggest the Slovenian is far from unbeatable, but he’ll have to take things to another level if he wants to beat his arch rival again.

The 2024 season wasn’t an easy one for Vingegaard or Visma, as the team suffered several nasty injuries in the spring, capped off by the Dane’s horror crash in the Basque Country in April. Despite a remarkable second-place finish on his comeback at the Tour, Vingegaard was often left isolated in the mountains, a contrast to the dominant support UAE provided for Pogacar. This weakness was surprising given the strength in numbers Visma held over UAE just 12 months prior, but Visma has already taken steps to address this imbalance. The signing of Simon Yates, an experienced climber and former grand tour winner, promises to provide Vingegaard with the support he lacked last year. With stronger allies in the high mountains, Vingegaard could mount a more formidable challenge in 2025.

Another potential boost for Visma is the return to form of Wout van Aert. The Belgian superstar endured a challenging 2024, hampered by injuries that limited his ability to influence the season’s major races. A fully fit Van Aert in 2025 could prove invaluable, not only in the grand tours but also in the classics. Races like Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders are where Van Aert has the potential to shine, and his success in these events could play a crucial role in disrupting UAE’s grip on cycling.

Vingegaard’s grand tour plans for 2025 remain uncertain, as while he has hinted at the possibility of targeting both the Giro and the Tour, a single-minded focus on the Tour de France might yield the best results. With proper preparation, stronger team support, and his proven ability to outmatch Pogacar on the longer climbs that we saw in 2022 and 2023, Vingegaard remains the most credible threat to UAE’s dominance.

While Jonas Vingegaard may be the primary rival to Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel has firmly established himself as the third-best grand tour rider in the world. The young Belgian enjoyed a superb 2024 season, silencing doubters with standout performances at the Olympics and the Tour de France. His Tour debut was particularly impressive, as he claimed a podium finish alongside Pogacar and Vingegaard as well as a stage win and the young rider’s classification, on his debut at the race.

Evenepoel’s raw talent and aggressive racing style make him a constant threat. His victory at the Olympics, where he made history by becoming the first person to claim gold in the individual time trial and the road race, showed everyone just what the Belgian is capable of. In fact, the Remco Evenepoel we saw in the road race at the Olympics may have been the version of a rider most closely match to Pogacar throughout 2024, it’s just a shame that the Slovenian wasn’t in Paris. However, questions remain about whether he can elevate himself to challenge the likes of Pogacar and Vingegaard more consistently.

Soudal - Quick-Step enters a transitional phase in 2025, with Patrick Lefevere stepping down as team boss. While the absence of Lefevere’s leadership is a significant change, the team’s emphasis on Evenepoel’s development towards the top two ensures they remain a formidable force. Financially, Soudal cannot match the resources of UAE or Visma, but Evenepoel’s exceptional talent could make the difference. If he continues to develop at his current pace, he could be a serious contender not only in the Tour but also in the hilly classics.

Red Bull’s foray into cycling through their partnership with BORA-hansgrohe brings both intrigue and expectation. While the 2024 season had its ups and downs for the team, Primoz Roglic’s victory at the Vuelta a Espana was a saving grace after a disappointing Tour de France marred by yet another crash for Roglic in France.

Red Bull’s track record in other sports suggests they will stop at nothing to achieve success, and their significant financial backing gives Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe the resources to challenge the established giants of UAE and Visma. With Roglic leading the charge and the team’s emphasis on innovation, BORA could emerge as a dark horse in the battle for grand tour supremacy. But can they truly challenge for pink or yellow this year?

While grand tours often dominate the headlines, the battle for one-day races and individual stage victories is equally crucial in shaping the season’s narrative. Lidl - Trek had their best season to date in 2024, with standout performances from Mads Pedersen, Mattias Skjelmose, and Jonathan Milan. Pedersen’s ability in classics and stage races makes him a key player for 2025, particularly in the opening week of the Tour de France, where the terrain suits his strengths.

Alpecin-Deceuninck, meanwhile, of course boasts one of the most potent combinations in modern cycling: Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen. Van der Poel’s victories at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix in 2024 cemented his status as one of the greatest all round riders we have ever seen, while Philipsen was only narrowly denied his second Tour green jersey by Biniam Girmay, as the Belgian still picked up three stage wins. Like Pedersen, van der Poel may have one eye on that first week of the Tour which provides more opportunities to riders with his attributes. Could we see Van der Poel relieve his epic week in yellow from 2021 once again?

As we look ahead to 2025, the dominance of UAE Team Emirates and Tadej Pogacar remains the benchmark, however, there is no doubt that the competition has spent the winter regrouping and trying to find out how they can close the gap to the sport’s most dominant team. Jonas Vingegaard, with stronger team support from Visma, is well-positioned to renew his rivalry with Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel’s continued development could propel Soudal - Quick-Step into contention, while Red Bull BORA-hansgrohe’s ambition and resources make them a wildcard.

In the one-day races and stage wins, Lidl - Trek and Alpecin - Deceuninck provide a formidable challenge, with riders like Mads Pedersen and Mathieu van der Poel capable of disrupting UAE’s dominance. Don’t forget Wout van Aert too, who will desperately be hoping to have his strongest spring in many a year and take victories away from Pogacar and UAE in doing so.

So will it be a 2024 repeat for Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates – XRG? Or will one of the riders and teams listed above climb their way back towards them, and make 2025 a whole lot more competitive at the front end of the peloton than 2024 was. Only time will tell, but one things for sure, we can’t wait to see what the road season has in store for us this year.