OPINION: 5 early cycling predictions that could shake up the peloton in 2025

Cycling fans were treated to a spectacular 2024 season, filled with drama, controversy and unforgettable moments. Tadej Pogacar’s historic triple crown (the Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, and World Championships road race) cemented his status as one of the greatest cyclists of all time. Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel’s double Olympic gold in the time trial and road race showed that he is the real-deal, and could be the man to challenge Pogacar in the years to come. Mathieu van der Poel, not to be outdone, achieved an incredible double at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, winning both in emphatic style in back to back weekends in the spring.

These moments set a high bar for 2025, but as we look ahead, here are five bold predictions that could define the upcoming season.

Read also

"What if Cav just had a clean run? Could he have got 40? 45?" - Van Garderen & Vande Velde believe Mark Cavendish's 35 Tour de France stages 'easily' could be more

Jonas Vingegaard opens up on Tadej Pogacar rivalry: "I see him win these races and I'm fascinated by who he is as a cyclist"

1. Juan Ayuso will win the Giro d’Italia

Juan Ayuso’s 2024 season was far from smooth sailing. The 22-year-old Spaniard entered the year with high expectations, but internal tensions within UAE Team Emirates and a bout of illness derailed his progress. His well-documented clash with teammate Joao Almeida on the Galibier during the Tour de France caused friction, as Almeida felt Ayuso wasn’t contributing enough to support team leader Tadej Pogacar. Matters worsened when Ayuso was forced to abandon the Tour halfway through due to illness, and he was then left out of the squad for the Vuelta a España, sparking speculation about his standing within the team.

Despite these setbacks, Ayuso has the talent and the team behind him to bounce back, and UAE Team Emirates has announced that Ayuso will co-lead their Giro d’Italia squad alongside Adam Yates in 2025. The Spanish climber’s strong pedigree, including a podium finish at the 2022 Vuelta, shows his potential to shine in grand tours, and he’ll be happy to step out of Pogacar’s shadow in 2025. The Giro’s challenging mountain stages and individual time trials could suit Ayuso’s all-round abilities, and he’’ be desperate to prove his ability again next year. With the right preparation and team support, we predict Ayuso will turn his fortunes around and claim his first grand tour victory in Italy. So, it will be yet another UAE Team Emirates grand tour win, but this time with a Spanish rider instead of a Slovenian.

Juan Ayuso will want to make a statement in 2025

2. Mads Pedersen will be denied once more at Paris-Roubaix

Mads Pedersen enters the 2025 season laser-focused on securing an elusive monument victory, with Paris-Roubaix at the top of his list. Pedersen has won classics and stages at all 3 grand tours and has made no effort to hide his desperation to finally win a monument. The Lidl-Trek rider’s spring campaign is set to target all the major cobbled classics, as confirmed by his coach, with Paris-Roubaix the main goal of his season. However, while Pedersen’s determination is undeniable, we foresee heartbreak once again at Roubaix.

Mathieu van der Poel has dominated Paris-Roubaix in recent years, winning the last two editions at record speeds. The Dutchman’s unrivalled power on the cobbles and his supreme bike handling skills make him the overwhelming favourite to claim a historic hat-trick in the “Hell of the North”. Pedersen, though an exceptional rider, may struggle to match Van der Poel’s seemingly unstoppable ability on the cobbles. As such, we predict that Van der Poel will further solidify his status as one of the greatest all-round riders in history, leaving Pedersen to wait another year for his moment in the sun.

Read also

ANALYSIS: The one statistic that explains why Primoz Roglic’s Giro-Tour double could be a success

Or do we think their will be another moment for Pedersen to take the spotlight in 2025?

3. Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard will have their tightest Tour de France battle to date

Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard have been the central figures in one of cycling’s greatest rivalries over the past few seasons, and they are rapidly becoming one of the greatest sporting rivalries we have seen. Their battles at the Tour de France have become must-watch events, with each of the last five editions of the Tour being won by one of these two supreme riders. In 2024, Pogacar defeated Vingegaard by an astonishing 6 minutes and 17 seconds, reversing the result of the previous year when Vingegaard bested Pogacar by 7 minutes and 29 seconds. Despite these dominant performances, the rivalry has often lacked the nail-biting closeness fans crave in the final stages. This was largely due to injury scuppering Pogacar’s preparation in 2023, and the same for Vingegaard in 2024, leaving one of the rivals with the upper hand on both occasions.

Read also

PHOTOS: Stylish on and off the bike! Mathieu van der Poel arrives to cyclocross race in lavish €511,000 Lamborghini Revuelto

"That's not Mathieu's fault, that's more the fault of the rest" - CX legend comments on lack of tension when world champion takes to the field

The 2025 Tour de France, however, could change that. With both riders hoping to enjoy injury-free preparations and perfect build-ups to the race, we predict the closest contest yet. The last time their battle was relatively tight was in 2022, when Vingegaard won by 2 minutes and 43 seconds in what was a Tour de France that will be remembered as the first time Pogacar has cracked, and badly, on a climb. Next year, we expect the margin of victory to be even slimmer, possibly less than two minutes. Both riders are at the peak of their powers, and their head-to-head duel could produce one of the most thrilling Tours in history. But who will come out on top? That remains the ultimate question.

4. A Lidl-Trek Rider will win the Tour de France green jersey, but which one?

The points classification at the Tour de France has often been a fiercely contested prize, and 2025 promises to deliver another exciting battle, with Biniam Gimray currently the defending champion. In 2024, Mads Pedersen’s campaign for the green jersey ended prematurely due to a crash in the first week, however, the Dane will be hoping he can get a second chance at the green jersey next year. Pedersen’s consistency in sprints and intermediate points makes him a strong contender, but he may not be the only Lidl-Trek rider in the mix.

Read also

Jonathan Milan reflects on stellar 2024 and future ambitions including Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix: “I will leave the track aside”

Jonathan Milan, the 24-year-old Italian sensation, could make his Tour de France debut in 2025. Milan has dominated the points classification at the Giro d’Italia for two consecutive years, including an impressive 2024 campaign in Italy where he won three stages. If Lidl-Trek decides to give him the opportunity to compete at the Tour, Milan could emerge as a serious rival to Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay in the battle for green, and isn’t that what fans of the fast men really wants? Regardless of who takes the lead role, we predict a Lidl-Trek rider will stand on the Champs-Élysées podium in green next July.

5. A UAE Team Emirates rider will win the Vuelta a Espana

Ok, we’re sitting on the fence again here, but hear us out. The Vuelta a España’s 2025 edition features a gruelling route with ten summit finishes, including five or six exceptionally tough mountainous stages. UAE Team Emirates has yet to win the Spanish grand tour, and whilst that could change at the end of next summer, the big question is: who will lead the team to victory?

Read also

"It was difficult to stay focused. That's why I made a lot of mistakes" - Mathieu van der Poel admits complacency crept in at World Cup Gavere

"Watch out: it's more than just preparation" - Wout van Aert's training partner insists returning star is ready to compete for victory at Azencross Loenhout

Tadej Pogacar has yet to confirm whether he will compete in the Vuelta, which is one of the very few races the Slovenian superstar has yet to win. If he does start the Vuelta, we predict he will win the race to complete his grand tour collection, adding the final jewel to his already glittering crown. However, if Pogacar opts out, Joao Almeida could step into the spotlight. Almeida’s impressive performances in recent years.in cluding a stage win and the young riders’ classification at the 2023 Giro, as well as a fourth-place finish at the 2024 Tour despite riding in support of Pogacar, show that he is one of the world’s best riders in his own right.

Almeida looked strong early in the 2024 Vuelta and was one of the favourites for the red jersey, before illness forced him to abandon. If given the opportunity to lead in 2025, the Portuguese rider could finally achieve his breakthrough grand tour victory. Either way, we believe a UAE Team Emirates rider will wear the red jersey in Madrid next September.

Read also

COLUMN: The yellow jersey, a monument win, and grand tour stage wins: What is on the world's best cyclists Christmas wish lists?

Cycling’s 2024 season set an incredibly high standard, but 2025 promises to be just as captivating. From Juan Ayuso’s resurgence at the Giro d’Italia to another epic showdown between Pogacar and Vingegaard at the Tour de France, the year ahead is brimming with potential drama and excitement. Whether it’s a new champion emerging or a veteran cementing their legacy, one thing is certain: cycling fans are in for another thrilling ride.

Thankfully, we don’t have to wait too long now before the peloton is back next year. Now the question is, do you agree with our predictions? And do you have any bold predictions, that you believe could be one of the main narratives in 2025?

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Unlock your ultimate cycling experience—subscribe today for access to the latest cycling news

Subscribe