“If he truly believed he could beat Tadej Pogacar…” – Danish expert calls Jonas Vingegaard’s Giro-Tour plan a ‘sign of resignation’

Is Jonas Vingegaard changing course because he believes it gives him a better chance of beating Tadej Pogacar – or because he no longer fully believes he can?

That is the uncomfortable question raised by Danish TV2 cycling expert Emil Axelgaard, who has cast doubt on the logic behind Vingegaard’s decision to ride the Giro d’Italia before the Tour de France in 2026.

Axelgaard does not frame Vingegaard’s Giro debut as bold or adventurous. He frames it as worrying. “It is hard not to see it as a small sign of resignation too,” he said in comments published by TV2. “If he truly felt 100 per cent convinced that he could beat Pogacar this summer, he would probably prioritise revenge in the world’s biggest bike race more highly.”

Instead, Axelgaard argues, Vingegaard is choosing to prioritise something else, even though it is likely to weaken his Tour chances. In his view, the only possible justification would be if Visma and Vingegaard have data from the Vuelta suggesting that riding a Grand Tour beforehand will not significantly harm his level for July.

That reading cuts straight across the official message from Visma.

When Team Visma | Lease a Bike confirmed Vingegaard’s Giro debut, the rider himself framed it as ambition, not retreat. “Of course that played a role in my decision,” he said in the team’s press release. “I have already won in France and Spain. Now I want to do the same in Italy.”

He also spoke about the change as a deliberate attempt to refresh a Tour build-up that has followed the same pattern for years. “Over the past five years, my build-up to the Tour has been largely the same. This time we have chosen something new.”

From Vingegaard’s perspective, the Giro is not an escape from Pogacar. It is a different road towards him.

But Axelgaard is not convinced that changing the road means getting closer to the destination.

The context matters. Over the past two seasons, Pogacar has not just beaten Vingegaard at the Tour. He has done so with growing authority. That is why every change Visma makes is read through the lens of one question: does this help Jonas beat Pogacar?

Some experts, including former Danish national coach Anders Lund, have argued that riding the Giro could sharpen Vingegaard physically and mentally for the Tour. Axelgaard takes the opposite view. He sees risk, not opportunity.

To him, the logic is simple. If Vingegaard felt totally convinced he could beat Pogacar in a straight rematch at the Tour, that would be his clear priority. Choosing a path that likely weakens his July condition suggests doubt, not confidence.

The tension in this debate is that both readings can exist at once.

Vingegaard can genuinely want to complete the Grand Tour set, as he has openly said. He can also genuinely believe that a different build-up might help him. At the same time, it is impossible to separate those choices from the reality that Pogacar has raised the bar.

Axelgaard’s words land so sharply because they challenge the narrative that every change is purely strategic. He introduces the idea that emotion, doubt and psychological wear might also be in play.

If he is right, then the Giro is not just a sporting decision. It is a signal about where Vingegaard stands in his rivalry with Pogacar.

Vingegaard will start 2026 convinced, at least publicly, that his new path can still lead him back to yellow. Axelgaard believes that conviction is already cracking.

The Giro will tell part of the story. The Tour will tell the rest.

By the time Vingegaard reaches July, the debate will no longer be theoretical. Either the new path will have brought him closer to Pogacar, or Axelgaard’s warning will start to look less like a provocation and more like a diagnosis.