ANALYSIS | The five riders who can threaten Tadej Pogacar at the GP Quebec

Tadej Pogacar arrives in Canada as one of the main contenders for the GP Québec 2025. It will be the first time we have seen the world champion since the end of the Tour de France in July, where he won the yellow jersey for a fourth time. The Slovenian has a point to prove after finishing only seventh last year in a race that was decided in a late sprint won by Michael Matthews ahead of Biniam Girmay. Pogacar, the current Tour de France champion, was left frustrated in that final kick, but returns determined to fight for victory. Alongside him, another major star, Wout van Aert, is set to draw much of the attention.

Pogacar is using the Canadian classics once again as a key stepping stone toward the World Championships in Kigali later this month, where he will look to defend his road race title and win the time trial too. He lines up for both Québec and Sunday’s GP de Montréal, where he will defend his title. The Montreal race clashes with the closing weekend of the Vuelta a España, a scheduling overlap that many in the sport view as a misstep from the UCI. Staging two WorldTour events at the same time diminishes both, a situation that would never happen in football where major competitions are carefully separated.

The parcours in Québec remains similar to last year’s edition: punchy climbs, but not brutal enough to shed all the fast men. With a finishing straight that rises at around four percent, the scene is set for a reduced group sprint, just like in 2024. That opens the door for a handful of specialists capable of upsetting Pogacar.

The first name on any list of challengers has to be Pogacar’s close friend Michael Matthews. The Australian claimed victory in Québec last year, outsprinting Pogacar and Girmay. While his 2025 campaign has been quieter than some previous seasons, Matthews is a rider who knows how to peak for the Canadian races. The uphill drag to the line perfectly suits his explosive acceleration, and even if Pogacar is at his sharpest, Matthews has proven he can come past him in the final meters. History shows he cannot be discounted.

Perhaps the most intriguing presence on the start list is Wout van Aert. The Belgian has had a mixed season but reminded everyone of his brilliance with his audacious attack in Montmartre that brought him victory on the Champs Élysées at the Tour. That alone is enough to mark him as a danger to Pogacar, as the Belgian was the only person to drop Pogacar throughout the entire Tour. Van Aert is unlikely to race the World Championships in Kigali, so Québec and Montréal may be among his last big targets of the year. Supported by Team Visma | Lease a Bike, he could count on teammates like Christophe Laporte and Tiesj Benoot, though neither is currently at peak condition. Van Aert’s versatility and explosivity make him a genuine threat in a race of this profile, but he will need to be at his very best.

Last year’s runner-up, Biniam Girmay, arrives in Canada under different circumstances. In 2024 he was flying after three stage wins and the green jersey at the Tour de France. This season has been less kind. Rumours swirl about a possible departure from Intermarché, and his results have not matched his talent. Still, Girmay remains one of the fastest men in the peloton when the finish comes from a reduced group. If the race unfolds as it did twelve months ago, with 20 to 30 riders contesting the sprint, Girmay will once again be a rider to watch closely.

Arnaud de Lie represents one of the feel-good stories of the season. After two years blighted by crashes and injuries, the Belgian has rediscovered his form in the latter stages of 2025. His victory over Mathieu van der Poel at the Renewi Tour signalled his return to the top level. For a rider with his punch and power, the Québec circuit is ideal. If De Lie maintains the condition he showed in recent weeks, he will not just be a contender, he could be one of the top favourites to win. His resurgence adds an extra layer of unpredictability to the race, if he is in form to beat Van der Poel, he is in form to challenge Pogacar on this course.

UAE Team Emirates will naturally rally around Pogacar, but Jhonatan Narvaez could emerge as a fascinating second card to play. The Ecuadorian is faster than Pogacar in a sprint from a sizeable group and has the abiliity to seize an opportunity if his leader’s plan falters. UAE have often demonstrated flexibility when Pogacar is present, and Narvaez could be deployed as a backup option. Should Pogacar fail to make a decisive move on the climbs, Narvaez might be their insurance policy in the sprint.

The GP Québec is unique in that it blends the qualities of a one-day classic with the dynamics of a WorldTour-level sprint. Riders like Pogacar and Van Aert thrive on selective, attritional racing, while Matthews, Girmay, and De Lie rely more on conserving energy before producing a devastating kick in the final meters. That clash of styles is what makes this race so unpredictable. If Pogacar cannot distance his rivals on the climbs, he risks being outsprinted again. If he does find a gap, few can match his ability to sustain power on the run to the line.

As always, much will depend on team tactics. UAE will seek to control the race for Pogacar, but Visma’s depth and the presence of multiple sprinters will make that difficult. Meanwhile, Matthews and Girmay are used to surfing wheels and timing their efforts to perfection. Add in the wildcard of De Lie and the possibility of a tactical surprise from Narvaez, and the race is finely poised.

Either way, its good to have Pogi back.