GP de Quebec 2025: Preview, favourites, profile, route and predictions. Will Tadej Pogacar win on his return?

For the first time since the Tour de France, Tadej Pogacar will return to competition on September 12th at the Grand Prix de Québec 2025, one of the two Canadian WorldTour one-day races. The event unfolds on Friday from 17:00 to 22:05 CET. The burning question: can the reigning World Champion triumph against rivals like Wout van Aert or Arnaud De Lie?

This marks the beginning of Pogacar’s build-up to defending his rainbow jersey at the World Championships in Kigali later this season. To prepare, UAE Team Emirates’ star will tackle both Canadian classics—the first being the very race that slipped away from him in 2024.

The GP de Québec covers 204 kilometers, split across 18 laps of just under 12.5 km each, totaling around 2,500 meters of climbing. It’s a rolling race, with each lap including an ascent, though this year brings a significant change in the finale.

The opening half of the circuit takes riders on a descent from downtown Québec toward the river, covering the first five kilometers. The following four are flatter, offering teams a chance to reorganize and position their leaders ahead of the decisive climbs.

The finish is notably tougher than in recent years. Instead of the familiar double kicker separated by a downhill, the peloton now faces the Côte de la Montagne before a direct drag to the line. At 600 meters at 8%—with ramps maxing out at 17%—this is a savage, explosive climb tailor-made for punchers and climbers, not sprinters. From the summit, just 1.2 km of false flat remains to the line. It’s a finale that invites late attacks and saps the legs of the fast men.

Whenever Tadej Pogacar lines up in a hilly classic, he is the automatic favorite. He arrives in Québec in the same condition as 2024—fresh off a Tour victory and without racing in between. The question is whether he has learned from last year’s misjudged attacks. If he goes solo, few can stop him. If not, the finale opens the door to a reduced group sprint, with UAE also holding a card in Jhonatan Narváez.

His biggest threats? Wout van Aert, who beat him in the final stage of the Tour and will be brimming with confidence, and Arnaud De Lie, who recently toppled Mathieu van der Poel and is enjoying the best form of his career. Last year’s podium finishers, Michael Matthews and Biniam Girma,y may not have found peak form in 2025, but they can’t be discounted.

Other contenders include Roger Adrià (debuting with Movistar), Pello Bilbao, Fred Wright, Jonas Abrahamsen, Corbin Strong, Dorian Godon, Joe Blackmore, Mattias Skjelmose, Axel Laurance, Alberto Bettiol, Tiesj Benoot, Julian Alaphilippe, Luke Lamperti, and Álex Aranburu. Movistar will also look to animate the race with Jon Barrenetxea or Rúben Guerreiro.

*** Arnaud De Lie, Michael Matthews

** Tadej Pogacar, Wout van Aert, Biniam Girmay, Jhonatan Narváez

* Corbin Strong, Luke Lamperti, Álex Aranburu, Dorian Godon

Pick: Arnaud De Lie
Scenario: A reduced group sprint of around 30 riders, with the Belgian Lotto star prevailing