ANALYSIS | Can Mathieu van der Poel win the mountain bike world championships this weekend?

On September 14, 2025, Mathieu van der Poel will stand on the start line in Crans-Montana with the chance to complete the most elusive chapter of his career. The men’s elite cross-country Olympic race at the UCI Mountain Bike World Championships is more than just another event for the Dutch superstar. It represents the one rainbow jersey missing from his collection, the one title he has openly admitted means the most to him. In a field without reigning Olympic champion Tom Pidcock, unpredictability surrounds the race, and the possibility of a historic moment looms large.

But just how likely is it that the Dutchman wins?

Back in March, van der Poel made no secret of his ambitions. “It would be really cool to become world champion mountain biking one day. That feels like the last piece of the puzzle of my career,” explained the Alpecin-Deceuninck star in the magazine Helden. “I would really like to tick off that title. If I stop and the world title in mountain biking is missing, that would be the only thing I would think at the moment: too bad. For the rest, it doesn't really matter to me.”

Few riders in history can match his palmarès. Van der Poel has claimed a record-equalling seven cyclocross world titles, a road race rainbow jersey in Glasgow in 2023, and the gravel world crown in 2024. Add to that eight Monuments, stage victories at both the Tour de France and the Giro d’Italia, and stints in yellow and pink jerseys, and his résumé already reads like one of the sport’s greats. At 30 years old, there are precious few titles left for him to chase, but the mountain bike world championship is one of them.

His history with the discipline has been turbulent. He won the European championship in 2019, but his Olympic bid in Tokyo ended in a disastrous crash. Since then, opportunities on the mountain bike have been rare, squeezed by his relentless road schedule. In fact, in the four years since those Games, he has lined up in only four MTB races, finishing just two. That scarcity of results leaves him starting well back on the grid in Crans-Montana.

At the end of August, he offered a glimpse of what might be possible. In Les Gets, he clawed his way from deep in the pack to finish sixth in the World Cup. Afterward, he assessed his chances with candour. “I'll only start from the fourth row, and in mountain biking, the start is even more important than in cyclocross. The chance of me becoming world champion is still slim after this week, but I do think I made the difference this week fitness-wise.”

There was honesty, too, about his limitations. “I'm happy with my race. I felt myself improving every lap, but in the final stages I lacked the punch and acceleration in my legs to compete for the win. I would have settled for this result beforehand, but in retrospect, I might have been able to achieve even more if I had been a bit more aggressive in the first laps,” he admitted. Looking toward the World Championships, he was clear about the decisive factor: “The start will be crucial there as well.”

For van der Poel, the challenge is not just physical, but historical. He is attempting to become a world champion in a fourth discipline, something no man has ever achieved. Pauline Ferrand-Prévot has achieved that, with rainbow jerseys in road, gravel, cyclocross, and mountain bike. In fact, in 2015, she became the first cyclist to simultaneously hold world titles in road, cyclocross, and mountain biking. Now a Tour de France Femmes and Paris-Roubaix winner, Ferrand-Prévot’s career has set the benchmark for all-round greatness. Like her, van der Poel wants that fourth rainbow jersey to complete his legacy.

But he is not alone in the hunt. World Cup leader Victor Koretzky, silver medallist at Paris 2024, has been the most consistent rider of the season. Christopher Blevins of the United States, ranked second, is riding the form of his life, while South Africa’s Alan Hatherly, the Olympic bronze medallist, is on top form too. And then there is Nino Schurter, the Swiss legend with 10 world titles and an Olympic medal of every colour, racing what may be his final Worlds on home soil.

All of which means van der Poel’s task is monumental. But, as we know, Van der Poel is a monumental man.

The odds are stacked against him, from his start position to the level of competition standing in his way. Yet if there is one rider capable of defying those odds, it is him. He has already conquered road, gravel, and cyclocross, three disciplines demanding entirely different skills. The mountain bike world title is the last frontier, and even if it remains improbable, the fact that he is in contention at all underlines why his date with history cannot be ignored.

Will Van der Poel pull on the rainbow jersey this weekend? Let us know in the poll and comments below!