PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 16 - Vingegaard versus Almeida on explosive Galicia stage

We preview stage 16 of the Vuelta a Espana, which will take place on the 9th of September. It's an explosive day with another summit finish, but a lot of short and explosive climbs where the GC action is set to explode. The stage is set to start at 13:10CET and finish at 17:10CET.

After it's success in 2021, the Vuelta brought back the final set of climbs in and around Castro de Herville. It's a hilly stage with a different variety of climbs that can lead to changes in the GC. A perfect profile for a GC raid.

The stage takes place fully in Galicia where even if it seems, the roads are never truly flat. But the first categorized climb of the day only comes in it the second half of the stage. We'll have a mix of long and short climbs, with different gradients and lots of descents inbetween.

8.9Km at 4.1% with 85 kilometers to go; 11.4Km at 5.4% with 58Km to go... Then an uncategorized climb with 34 kilometers to go which is 3.7 kilometers at 6.8%; the steepest climb of the day which has a bonus sprint at the summit, it's 3.2 kilometers long at 8.9%... In the middle of the descent to the final ascent there is still another hilltop which can be used for a surprise move, but the final climb is then then main course on the menu.

The climb to the Castro de Herville is anything but regular, averaging 5.3% throughout 8.2 kilometers. However the first 1.7 average over 10% and have ramps up to 15% where serious differences can be made. All the way to the finish then is a string of rolling roads up to the summit, with flat sections and a few explosive ramps where the race can become tactical.

Some southwestern wind however it shouldn't have an effect in a day of constant direction changes, and up and down. There is small chance of rain too, more towards the end of the day, which could make it quite a tense finale.

GC battle - This is a GC day, although with short and explosive climbs. Honestly, it's a day well suited to raids, but don't expect any. The two most explosive riders out of the top GC figures are the ones that want to defend their positions, and those that want to attack do not have that explosivity. Visma have a very strong team, and in this kind of climbs it will be very hard for João Almeida to put in time on Jonas Vingegaard, but both teams are certain to want to put men in front on such a day.

When it comes to the podium fight, Tom Pidcock is vastly more explosive than Jai Hindley and Felix Gall. I think both Pidcock and Vingegaard will enter the day with as many intentions of attacking as the riders that they have to defend themselves from, as they can more likely make the difference on the shorter efforts. But if Visma keep everything under control, we may not really have differences. Giulio Pellizzari and Matthew Riccitello will also be there for an interesting white jersey battle.

This could well end up as a breakaway day, as I don't believe any GC team will go all-out, and the finale is difficult terrain to chase on - which suits both climbers and puncheurs, so many riders have the ability to make the difference.

So we look once again towards those who want to climb up the GC, including William Junior Lecerf who won a lot of time today, potentially also Bruno Armirail and Harold Tejada. A lot will depend on the behaviour in the peloton, if it's strict then it's a risk for sure.

UAE is the regular question, which one of their riders will have freedom to win the stage, on paper all three stage hunters can win here without a doubt. Egan Bernal, Santiago Buitrago, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Eddie Dunbar, Damien Howson, Mikel Landa, Finlay Pickering, Marco Frigo, Javier Romo, Bob Jungels, Magnus Sheffield and Finn Fisher-Black are all contenders. 

*** Santiago Buitrago, Marco Frigo
** Jonas Vingegaard, Eddie Dunbar, Bob Jungels
* Mads Pedersen, João Almeida, Tom Pidcock, Jai Hindley, Felix Gall, Egan Bernal, Damien Howson, Mikel Landa, Javier Romo, Magnus Sheffield, Finn Fisher-Black, Juan Ayuso, Marc Soler, Harold Tejada

Pick: Santiago Buitrago

How: Win from the breakaway.