ANALYSIS: Can Wout van Aert beat Mathieu van der Poel at Cyclocross World Championships?
CyclocrossTuesday, 28 January 2025 at 15:30
The cyclocross world will have its
eyes fixed on Liévin, France, from 31 January to 2 February, as the sport’s two
biggest stars, Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert, go head-to-head at the
Cyclocross World Championships. Van der Poel enters the event as the heavy
favourite, aiming to equal the record of seven cyclocross world titles.
Meanwhile, Van Aert, a three-time world champion, has announced at short notice
that he will in fact be racing for rainbow this weekend.
The Belgian will be hoping to
stage a monumental upset and reclaim the rainbow jersey for the first time
since 2018. But can he win his fourth title and stop his arch rival making
history?
Can anyone stop Mathieu van der Poel?
Van der Poel’s cyclocross record
speaks for itself. The Dutchman has already claimed six world titles and is one
step away from matching the all-time record of seven. This season, he has been
nothing short of unstoppable, winning all seven of the races he has competed
in, including dominant performances at World Cups in Maasmechelen and
Hoogerheide. “I hope to ride my best cross of the season next week,” van der
Poel said ahead of the championships, exuding confidence and class after a
perfect season so far.
Despite his dominance, van der
Poel has had to contend with some physical setbacks. Over the weekend, he
revealed he was racing with a broken rib, a factor that could have slowed him
down. “It is still not going so well,” he admitted at the time. However, his
results suggest otherwise, with his performances remaining as commanding as
ever. At the World Cup in Maasmechelen, he dismantled Van Aert in a
head-to-head battle, showing he is still in a league of his own. His ability to
maintain top form despite injuries has been a hallmark of his career, and he
was lapping riders as early as the fourth lap this weekend which shows you just
how far ahead he is of the competition.
Van der Poel’s incredible
consistency is highlighted by his record over the past three seasons. In that
time, he has only failed to win three cyclocross races, and all three defeats
came at the hands of Van Aert. This statistic emphasises just how dominant Van
der Poel has been, while also illustrating that if anyone is going to beat him,
it is going to be Van Aert.
Wout van Aert: now the underdog
Van Aert, by contrast, enters the
championships in a far less dominant position. Now 30 years old, the Belgian
endured a challenging 2024, plagued by crashes and disappointments across both
the spring and at the end of the summer at the Vuelta. His last cross world
title came all the way back in 2018, and while he has consistently been a
contender, he has had to settle for second place in 2019, 2021, and 2023. Can
he finally break that streak and claim his fourth rainbow jersey?
Van Aert’s inclusion in this
year’s world championships was something of a last-minute decision. Belgian
national coach Angelo De Clercq revealed that Van Aert only confirmed his
participation the night before the roster was finalised. “He called me last
night to ask if he could start,” said Vanthourenhout, adding that Van Aert’s
decision to race shows his hunger and determination to get back on top. Of
course, Belgium has plenty of cyclocross talent, and although Thibau Nys did
defeat Van Aert earlier this month, the Team Visma | Lease a Bike rider is
still top dog in Belgium.
Is it finally time for Wout van Aert to return to the top?
While Van der Poel’s recent record
has been near-flawless, it is worth noting that the three times he has been
beaten in the last three seasons were all by Van Aert. These rare defeats
underline Van Aert’s unique ability to challenge his rival in ways few others
can. Van Aert’s handling of the cross bike has not be at his best so far this
year, but if anyone can turn things around quickly it is surely Van Aert. And
make no doubt about it, if van der Poel falters who disaster strikers for the
Dutchmen, Van Aert will be ready.
Head-to-Head
The rivalry between Van der Poel
and Van Aert is one of the most storied in cycling history, with their battles
transcending cyclocross and spilling into the road racing calendar. However, in
cyclocross, Van der Poel has held the upper hand in recent years. At the 2023
World Championships in Hoogerheide, Van der Poel narrowly edged out Van Aert in
a thrilling sprint finish, the most recent of their cross world title battles.
This season, the Dutchman’s dominance has been even more pronounced, with his
commanding victory over Van Aert at the Maasmechelen World Cup serving as a
clear indicator of his current form.
Van Aert’s last victory over Van
der Poel in a cyclocross race came during the 2023/24season in Benidorm, where the
Belgian took advantage of Van der Poel’s mechanical issues to win. To beat Van
der Poel this weekend, Van Aert will need to replicate that kind of performance
and some more, if he’s going to have any chance of pulling on the rainbow
jersey.
Van Aert faces several challenges
heading into the championships. His last-minute decision to compete raises
questions about his preparation compared to van der Poel, who has meticulously
planned his winter around this event, despite the injury setback that has
shortened his calendar. Additionally, Van Aert’s recent struggles with
consistency, coupled with the memory of a difficult 2024 season, may weigh on
him mentally.
However, Van Aert is no stranger
to adversity. His ability to bounce back from setbacks has defined his career,
and his decision to race in Liévin shows he is ready to fight. “I’ll give it my
best,” Van Aert said, acknowledging the challenge ahead but not shying away
from it.
One factor that could play into
Van Aert’s hands is, of course, the unpredictable nature of cyclocross. Weather
conditions, course design, and sheer luck can all have a significant impact,
and Van Aert’s experience and adaptability make him well-equipped to capitalise
on any opportunities that arise. If anything unforeseen does happen in the
race, Van Aert is undoubtedly still the best bet to take on the champion.
Van der Poel goes for history
For Van der Poel, this weekend’s
race represents an opportunity to cement his legacy. A seventh world title
would place him alongside the legend that is Erik De Vlaeminck in the history
books. However, the weight of expectations can be a double-edged sword, and
could the Dutchman feel the extra pressure this weekend? While Van der Poel has
thrived under pressure throughout his career, the stakes in Liévin are
exceptionally high, and anything can happen on a cross bike.
The Dutchman’s near-perfect season
suggests he is peaking at the right time, but the spectre of his rare defeats
to Van Aert in recent seasons looms large. If anyone can derail Van der Poel’s
quest for history, it is his great rival. And, surely the winning has to stop
at some point? Don’t count on it, but don’t hang the gold medal around his neck
just yet either.
This weekend’s Cyclocross World
Championships is not just a race but a showdown between two true legends of the
sport. Mathieu van der Poel, with his sights set on history, has all the
momentum, but Wout van Aert is back again for yet another showdown with his
nemesis. The clash in Liévin promises to be a thrilling spectacle, with the
outcome likely to be decided by the finest of margins.
Whether Van der Poel matches the
all-time record or Van Aert reclaims the rainbow jersey after seven long years,
one thing is for sure: cyclocross fans are in for an unforgettable weekend.
We're thrilled to announce that @woutvanaert will compete in the cyclo-cross World Championships this Sunday! 🌈
— Team Visma | Lease a Bike (@vismaleaseabike) January 26, 2025
Wout: "I am excited to start in such a beautiful race, and I think that this extra boost is doing me good in the lead-up to bigger goals on the road."
Read more. 👇
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kaos03-05-2025 - I actually agree. Jonas and Visma put off altitude camp untill May I believe to help him closer to the TDF. I do also believe we will see Jonas retire suddenly and soon 🤘🏻🇬🇧kaos03-05-2025
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Yes but he won't.
It would be fantastic to see another Wout vs. Mathieu battle at the World Championships, but given his current form and recent performances, it's hard to imagine anyone even coming close to challenging Mathieu this year.
No , he cant unless bad luck happens to MVDP.
MVDP hardly ever has bad luck (like punctures etc.). More often unfortunately 'bad luck' in his case are stupid mistakes he does.
Partly true but you mustn’t forget, his experience with tire pressures from all the disciplines, his incredible handling and steering ability have hidden a lot of the “bad luck” that is attributed to others who may get more punctures because they don’t adapt to the conditions, fall more because they haven’t got the experience to steer or manoeuvre back to safety or stay cool when things get dodgy or simply the skill (e.g. right power dosage) to stay on their bike when practically every other rider is forced to walk. Not many riders endure more than one handlebar or steering break in their pro career, he’s come through 2 almost unhindered. Another thing to keep in mind is that because of his reputation and results we probably credit him for far more riding on the road than he actually does, if you would chart punctures/km he’d probably not be an outlier. Also, maybe he uses anti-puncture products others don’t?