“Van der Poel not going is a shame, Vingegaard isn’t known for one-day classics” — Geraint Thomas sees differing levels of regret for Kigali Worlds biggest absentees

As the men’s peloton prepares for what’s being dubbed the “hardest Worlds ever” in Kigali, Geraint Thomas has shared his thoughts on the race, the course, and the elite names both present and absent — and he’s not hiding his disappointment at some of the withdrawals.

“Van der Poel not going is a shame,” Thomas previewed during the latest episode of his Watts Occurring podcast alongside fellow Welshman and long-time friend Luke Rowe. “If he’s absent, that’s a real loss for the race. Mads Pedersen not there either, which is surprising given his year.”

The 2025 UCI Road World Championships men’s road race — a gruelling 267.5 km with nearly 5,500 metres of climbing — promises to be a test of attrition, tactics, and depth. Rwanda's highland capital brings the altitude (1,100–1,500 m), cobbles, and searing heat to a global start list that still boasts elite depth — even without a few headliners.

Rowe broke down the numbers: “It’s 10 laps of a circuit then one lap of a bigger circuit with a bigger climb — 5.8 km at about 6.5%. Then you have the shorter 1.3 km at ~5.7% and a 0.7 km at ~8% each lap. It’s going to be death by a thousand cuts — a slow burn.”

That final lap may well be the race-defining moment. Thomas agreed: “The key moment is the big climb on the bigger lap. About 6–6.5% and relatively late into the race. That’s when you want two guys in the mix.”

With the final climb placing demands beyond what typical one-day specialists might relish, the course has pushed some potential contenders away. For Thomas, some absences are more significant than others. “Vingegaard isn’t known for one-day classics,” he noted. “It’s a lot to expect him to go for Worlds if the course is that hard, and teams will prioritise riders who’ve had heavy seasons.”

The consensus picks for gold are as obvious as they are dangerous. “Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel are the obvious two favourites,” said Rowe firmly. “Pogacar’s had a strong year; you can never write him off. Remco will feel invincible after that TT.”

Evenepoel, fresh off another dazzling time trial performance, remains a perennial threat in any World Championship, while Tadej Pogacar's consistent brilliance and all-round ability could be perfectly suited to Kigali’s mix of climbing and chaos.

On home soil for Rwanda, the first African nation to host the Worlds, the altitude and temperature — forecast around 26–28°C — could play subtle but telling roles. “It’s easy to think ‘it’s only 26–28’ and then under-drink,” said Rowe. “That’s when you pay the price late.”

As for British hopes, both riders pointed to Tom Pidcock as the leading card. “I’ll say Tom Pidcock — when he’s on he can do it,” said Thomas, with Rowe adding: “I’d have Tom as the main option and Hayter as a nice backup. I wouldn’t pick a single leader: I’d go in with two cards and let them both play if they’re there later in the race.”

And while attention naturally centres on marquee names, both Thomas and Rowe are bullish about a handful of dark horses. “Del Toro — he’s been flying in one-day races,” said Rowe. “And the Americans have a strong squad too: Quinn Simmons, Brandon McNulty, Neilson Powless.”

A unique feature of the Kigali course is its 1.3 km cobbled climb — part of both the TT and road race courses. The setting is spectacular, but the atmosphere could be volatile. “The TT looked great,” said Thomas, “but images show fans very close to the road. Rwanda isn’t a nation used to closed-road cycling events at that scale, so you hope the fans understand to keep off the road. In Belgium everyone knows the drill — they step back. In places new to big races it can be different. That’s not a criticism — just a practical point.”

Who’s right? Time will tell. One thing they agree on: Kigali 2025 won’t be won easily, and whoever takes the rainbow jersey will have earned it the hard way. As Thomas concluded: “The Worlds can be funny… but the winner is always worthy.”