“Sunday’s race is an entirely different story” – History proves Tadej Pogacar is likely to come back firing after Kigali TT humbling says former Giro stage winner
Cycling
Tadej Pogacar’s fourth place in the 2025 Kigali World Championship time trial has sparked debate among experts about what it means for his chances in the rainbow jersey showdown on Sunday. Remco Evenepoel’s emphatic display – his third straight world title in the discipline – left Pogacar caught and passed on the road, a rare sight that inevitably raised questions about the Slovenian’s form.
Yet not everyone is convinced that the result should sound alarm bells. Former Giro d'Italia stage winner turned TV 2 Sport analyst Lars Bak believes the road race is a completely different arena, and history shows Pogacar has bounced back before.
“We shouldn’t read too much into it”
“Does this give cause for concern about Tadej Pogacar? No,” said Bak in his post-race analysis. “Two years ago in Glasgow, when he finished only 21st in the time trial, he still produced a brilliant ride in the road race. Just a week ago he won in Montreal, where he rode away with his team-mate Brandon McNulty."
“He was incredibly strong there, so I don’t think we should read too much into this," he adds. "He will still be the number one favourite on Sunday, Pogacar – together with Remco Evenepoel, with the legs he showed today. Sunday’s race is an entirely different story.”
Evenepoel’s hammering of the field in Kigali was undeniable – 1’25” clear of Jay Vine, with Ilan van Wilder completing a Belgian double on the podium – but Bak insists Pogacar’s struggles can be explained by recent illness and a disrupted preparation. The Slovenian himself admitted he had to compromise his time trial build-up to ensure he was ready for the road race.
“A host of nations can smell blood”
Not all analysts are so bullish. Emil Axelgaard, Bak’s colleague at TV 2 Sport, argued that Pogacar’s vulnerability against the clock should embolden rivals, particularly given the nature of the Rwandan circuit.
“The route suggests it could become very tactical, because the long climb comes early,” Axelgaard said. “Last year, Slovenia was very disappointing, and Pogacar was left isolated so soon that he panicked and attacked with 100 kilometres still to go. On that occasion, he was simply so superior that he could finish it off."
“He is hardly likely to try something similar again after this beating, and if they manage to isolate him early once more, then – unless he bounces back – he will struggle to resolve the situation on physical strength alone. That suddenly opens up some fascinating prospects for the big showdown in a week’s time.”
High stakes in Kigali
With Pogacar arriving as reigning world road race champion, and Evenepoel resurgent after his Tour de France exit, the stage is set for a battle between the sport’s two dominant figures. Whether Sunday’s 270 km epic across Rwanda’s climbs favours Pogacar’s resilience or hands Evenepoel a chance to double up remains the central question.
For Bak, the answer is clear: the Slovenian will come out swinging. For Axelgaard, the cracks are there to be exploited. Cycling fans will not have to wait long to see who is right.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- Just looked again at the photo. Yeah I stand by that. If MS had fallen over in Brands direction I don’t even think she would have hit her. You must be a UCI race commissioner. I’ll be sure to check my sock height should I ever see you on a ride. Looks like everyone else on here sees what I see.mij08-11-2026
- I said looking at the photo it doesn’t appear she deviated. Chill out, not stating my word is the final judgement. Just commenting that based on the photo I don’t see it. And BTW the Dutch coach even said she didn’t impede her.mij08-11-2026
- Blah Blah Blah !frieders308-11-2026
- MS said she was changing gears so that caused her slight deviation. Nothing was intentional.frieders308-11-2026
- How can you use a photo post incident to judge the incident itself (which is not hard to find if you’re prepared to invest the same amount of time in searching as writing that comment? It’s harsh but technically right even though this or worse is not always sanctioned in every race. The two things that went against MS (who unfortunately for her would still have won without making her mistake) are that it was not a bunch sprint where there could have been an overlooked incident or mitigating circumstances explaining a deviation. Everything was focused on just those 2, Schreiber was riding beautifully balanced which made her sudden deviation look unnatural stroke as if it could have been in some part intentional whilst she was slowly drifting ever closer towards the barrier to a point that would have reached obstruction level. In her defence, it might have been the realisation she was heading towards that that made her react suddenly and caused the deviation involuntarily. In any case, congratulations to her for the ride of her life, in people’s minds she will be credited for it.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
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- I think that they're not really used to dealing with this type of incident in a cyclocross race, and the situation has been magnified because it was a race for a championship title. It's very unfortunate that the race had to be decided in this way.
santiagobenites07-11-2026 - Seriously why do they keep doing stupid things like this. Its one thing to relegate when the placings are minor, when the action is blatant. But when it is ambiguous, why dont they at least take advice from some higher up to avoid embarrassing themselves. This is similar to the Halland goal when his teammate was clearly offside and interfered in play and VAR gave them the goal. if you dont have evidence you cannot convict. Even for doping they have these rulesabstractengineer07-11-2026
- So all those who went to watch, including all from abroad, waled there, spent nothing? Most places hosting events of the sort manage to make it worthwhile. If it was so obviously fruitless, don’t you think by now they’d have run out of hosting candidates? Why do you think the Tour can command such high prices for departure and arrival locations? If it didn’t bring anything locally they’d have to pay to get authorisation to use cities.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- What a travesty ! That little deviation did nothing to impede Brand !frieders307-11-2026
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