“Sunday’s race is an entirely different story” – History proves Tadej Pogacar is likely to come back firing after Kigali TT humbling says former Giro stage winner

Tadej Pogacar’s fourth place in the 2025 Kigali World Championship time trial has sparked debate among experts about what it means for his chances in the rainbow jersey showdown on Sunday. Remco Evenepoel’s emphatic display – his third straight world title in the discipline – left Pogacar caught and passed on the road, a rare sight that inevitably raised questions about the Slovenian’s form.

Yet not everyone is convinced that the result should sound alarm bells. Former Giro d'Italia stage winner turned TV 2 Sport analyst Lars Bak believes the road race is a completely different arena, and history shows Pogacar has bounced back before.

“Does this give cause for concern about Tadej Pogacar? No,” said Bak in his post-race analysis. “Two years ago in Glasgow, when he finished only 21st in the time trial, he still produced a brilliant ride in the road race. Just a week ago he won in Montreal, where he rode away with his team-mate Brandon McNulty."

“He was incredibly strong there, so I don’t think we should read too much into this," he adds. "He will still be the number one favourite on Sunday, Pogacar – together with Remco Evenepoel, with the legs he showed today. Sunday’s race is an entirely different story.”

Evenepoel’s hammering of the field in Kigali was undeniable – 1’25” clear of Jay Vine, with Ilan van Wilder completing a Belgian double on the podium – but Bak insists Pogacar’s struggles can be explained by recent illness and a disrupted preparation. The Slovenian himself admitted he had to compromise his time trial build-up to ensure he was ready for the road race.

Not all analysts are so bullish. Emil Axelgaard, Bak’s colleague at TV 2 Sport, argued that Pogacar’s vulnerability against the clock should embolden rivals, particularly given the nature of the Rwandan circuit.

“The route suggests it could become very tactical, because the long climb comes early,” Axelgaard said. “Last year, Slovenia was very disappointing, and Pogacar was left isolated so soon that he panicked and attacked with 100 kilometres still to go. On that occasion, he was simply so superior that he could finish it off."

“He is hardly likely to try something similar again after this beating, and if they manage to isolate him early once more, then – unless he bounces back – he will struggle to resolve the situation on physical strength alone. That suddenly opens up some fascinating prospects for the big showdown in a week’s time.”

With Pogacar arriving as reigning world road race champion, and Evenepoel resurgent after his Tour de France exit, the stage is set for a battle between the sport’s two dominant figures. Whether Sunday’s 270 km epic across Rwanda’s climbs favours Pogacar’s resilience or hands Evenepoel a chance to double up remains the central question.

For Bak, the answer is clear: the Slovenian will come out swinging. For Axelgaard, the cracks are there to be exploited. Cycling fans will not have to wait long to see who is right.