However the quality of the winners over the past 15 years is outerwordly, with many of the world's very best climbers winning the overall classification at the prime of their career. Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Primoz Roglic, Simon Yates, Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard... It's hard to image a better list.
In 2025 Juan Ayuso inserted his name amongst the greats, winning the overall classification after winning the queen stage, dethrnoing a Filippo Ganna who showed the very best climbing legs of his career.
Profile stage 3: Cortona - Magliano de' Marsi
Stage 3: Cortona - Magliano de' Marsi, 221 kilometers
Stage 3 is a day for the sprinters but by no means is it an easy or simple one - far from that. In fact it is quite the opposite, perhaps the hardest stage the organizers could design whilst maintaining the stance that it is a pure sprint.
The riders face 221 kilometers on the menu, a long distance which provides some sort of preparation for Milano-Sanremo. The start of the stage is flat, however the roads all throughout the final two third are quite rolling. There are 2400 climbing meters on the day; not a ton but this and the distance will weight on the legs of many by the time they have to do an all-out effort and a sprint.
The final meaningful climb ends with 40 kilometers to go, it is 7 kilometers long at 4%, where we can see some teams pushing the pace with good reasoning behind it. Later on, the arrival to Magliano de' Marsi is not technical in any way, a very long finishing straight into town where the experienced leadouts can do their thing.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - The Italian has his full leadout here, and at this point of the spring, he has to be in good form because there are plenty goals ahead. For this reason I don't think the climbing or the distance will be much of an issue for him. Whilst there are other very good leadouts around, I think Lidl-Trek can handle it quite well and from what we've seen this year, Milan will ordinarily win a battle against
Jasper Philipsen.
Jasper Philipsen - But Philipsen can't be rathed the same way he was in the Algarve, where his performances were poor. Here he has Mathieu van der Poel has a leadout, and that makes all the difference for the Belgian. I think the combo can work quite well and he has good chances of winning; the issue is his rivals will be some of the world's very best.
The sprinter list in this race is quite impressive, with at least four of five riders above the best that are at Paris-Nice. Take Tobias Lund Andresen for example, with Tord Gudmestad as a leadout... Decathlon can absolutely contest here with the very best, even if they lack Olav Kooij. Or Paul Magnier, who has started out his season incredibly well and can not only climb, but seems to actively be improving in the pure flat sprints. They can both win here. On paper Sam Welsford does have the speed to win, but he can't handle any sort of climbing... But the INEOS rider finished quite high in the time trial which is a promising sign that he may have good form, which would significantly improve his chances here.
There is
Wout van Aert too who must be taken into consideration, he will surely give it a go to try and work on his form, positioning and pure speed, but I think a bunch sprint is out of his league at the moment because he really does struggle in the peloton. On the opposite,
Danny van Poppel is a master at positioning and should do quite well here, regardless of form.
Add to the mix Pavel Bittner, Arnaud de Lie, Giovanni Lonardi, Madis Mihkels, Andrea Vendrame, Luca Mozzato, Fernando Gaviria and Corbin Strong, and we have got a true quality bunch sprint...
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 stage 3:
*** Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen
** Paul Magnier, Tobias Lund Andresen, Danny van Poppel
* Arnaud de Lie, Pavel Bittner, Giovanni Lonardi, Andrea Vendrame, Sam Welsford, Wout van Aert, Luca Mozzato
Pick: Jonathan Milan
How: Regular bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva