PREVIEW | Volta a Catalunya 2024 stage 1 - Can Tadej Pogacar outsprint the field in uphill sprint?

Stage 1 of the Volta a Catalunya ends in Sant Feliu de Guixols, a finale that is known for the rider that will feature an uphill sprint after a hilly day. Tadej Pogacar should have the legs to battle with the sprinters present in the race.

The seven-day race begins once again in Sant Feliu de Guíxols where some sprinters and puncheurs will fight for victory in the same uphill finish as the past two years - one unfortunately known for being the location of Sonny Colbrelli's heart failure, last year's a thrilling sprint between Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel. The stage features a few ascents early in the day where a strong breakaway can be formed.

With 20 kilometers summits a small climb that is 8 kilometers long at 4%. It is not a day for the sprinters as not only does this climb put some damage in the peloton, but the following descent and run-up to the finish is very fast, punchy and technical. Another small hilltop ends with 7.8 kilometers to go, and then most of the way into town is a very fast and twisty descent.

The final 750 meters then have a 5% gradient. It is not nothing, sprinters will certainly arrive here but this is an effort of over a minute that can be all-out from bottom to top. A sprint is almost certain but some riders will not have the legs, whilst some puncheurs and climbers may surprise because they will be better capable of putting in an actual sprint.

The Weather

Some nice temperatures and a breeze coming from the east. By all means, it shouldn't really affect the outcome of the day... If it does, maybe only in the final sprint where we'll have a slight tailwind.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - This is traditionally a finale where sprinters rule, but last year it was a head-to-head sprint between Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel. The current generation of climbers can sprint extraordinarily well and Pogacar is no exception. Yes, he's just two days off Milano-Sanremo, but there he made the difference to everyone else in a 4% climb and that's essentially the same as this finale. More explosive, but Pogacar packs a sprint and it would not be a surprise if he enters the race already with a win.

The sprinters - However he will have tough competition. Sonny Colbrelli and Michael Matthews battled for victory here two years ago, but we maybe do not have the same names this time around. The likes of Bryan Coquard, Ethan Hayter, Iván García Cortina and Axel Laurance can definitely put up a challenge on a finale like this. Also count on the likes of Marijn van den Berg, Orluis Aular, Lars Boven, Pavel Bittner and Arne Marit to try and contest for what should be a sprint finish.

The problem for the rest of the competition is that no-one can outclimb Pogacar, and so even if they pack the same sprint, they will not be as fresh. The sprinters may still have a chance if they arrive fresh enough. Certainly then it will be a finale where a few of these riders can do well and maybe obtain a place in the podium. Maxim van Gils, Ide Schelling, Stephen Williams and William Lecerf Junior are riders who pack a strong sprint and certainly can do very well in a finale like this, perhaps Pogacar's main actions.

Other riders should be present there, trying to get bonifications or at least prevent being caught out in splits. The likes of Egan Bernal and Tobias Johannessen are interesting riders into the finale; whilst others such as Attila Valter, Ilan van Wilder, Sergio Higuita, Felix Engelhardt and Aurélien Paret-Peintre should also be outsiders.

Prediction Volta a Catalunya 2024 stage 1:

*** Tadej Pogacar, Bryan Coquard
** Maxim van Gils, Axel Laurance, Ivan García Cortina
* Ethan Hayter, Marijn van den Berg, Lars Boven, Ide Schelling, Michael Woods, William Lecerf Junior, Egan Bernal, Tobias Johhannessen, Sergio Higuita

Pick: Tadej Pogacar