Preview UAE Tour 2026 stage 4 - Can Sam Welsford's INEOS challenge Jonathan Milan?

From the 16th to the 22nd of February, the peloton will be in the Middle East for what is the second World Tour stage-race of the season: the UAE Tour. The race, characterized by its flat stages and hot weather, will once again host some of the world's very best. We preview stage 4, which is expected to start and finish at 10:00 and 14:00CET.

The race was only created in 2019, off the back of the success of other events such as the Abu Dhabi Tour and the Dubai Tour. The region, host to large financial capacity, hot weather in February, and its World Tour status, has managed to attract big figures on a yearly basis. Its first edition, in 2019, immediately saw Primoz Roglic take the overall win ahead of then World Champion Alejandro Valverde.

With the growth of UAE Team Emirates - XRG, the nation's own team, the importance it gained grew even bigger. Adam Yates won the race in 2020, and that gave way to then Pogacar's two consecutive victories ahead of the Briton in 2021 and 2022. Then World Champion Remco Evenepoel soared to victory in 2023; his compatriot Lennert van Eetvelt won in 2024; whilst in 2025 it was World Champion Tadej Pogacar who took a dominant victory, winning both traditional finished into Jebej Jais and Jebel Hafeet.

Stage 4 is another novelty in this year's edition, as the stage is hilly all throughout, a rarity at the UAE Tour where all stages are, in their grand majority, flat as a pancake.

It's not a brutal stage by any means, but the start features a climb of 8 kilometers at 4%, and then there are some small ascents throughout the day. If raced hard, we could see a breakaway attempt to surprise, or some sprinters suffering.

If not, then the small climbs should have no influence on the day, and the riders will be heading towards a regular bunch sprint in Fujairah.

No notable wind that should make much of a difference on the day.

Jonathan Milan - The Italian is on all cases the man to beat, but this is definitely not as linear as that. The Italian crashed on stage 1, and although he continues the race, he is certainly not at his very best level - besides potentially somewhat tense because of his fall. So this will have to be managed. Nevertheless if he is able to follow his leadout well and pack a strong sprint, it won't be easy to beat him.

Sam Welsford - INEOS have solid chances of taking a win here for sure. Welsford is a pure sprinter, he cannot handle any type of climb, but that's why he was selected to the UAE. Now, this stage isn't pan-flat, but I don't expect the stage to be attacked or for there to be a strong breakaway. A pure sprint will likely happen, and on stage 1 he had his positioning dialed in. If he does the same, he can challenge Milan.

The field has several strong sprinters who can on their best day and with perfect timing challenge the Italian. Juan Sebastián Molano and Ethan Vernon are the most notable men, although I would add Giro stage winner Casper van Uden to that list without a doubt.

Matteo Malucelli, Erlend Blikra, Alberto Dainese, Stefan de Schuyteneer, Gerben Thijssen, Madis Mihkels, Daniel Skerl and stage 1 runner-up Cees Bol are all men to keep under eye in this stage.

*** Jonathan Milan, Sam Welsford
** Juan Sebastián Molano, Alberto Dainese
* Matteo Malucelli, Ethan Vernon, Erlend Blikra, Casper van Uden, Gebren Thijssen, Cees Bol

Pick: Sam Welsford

How: Regular bunch sprint