The Tour Down Under will conclude this Sunday. We preview stage 6, a day where the sprinters should be fighting for the stage win in a criterium-like stage in Adelaide where Sam Welsford will be the ultimate favourite.
The race finishes with the traditional criterium in Adelaide, where the sprinters will fight for one final win in a very fast stage. There really isn't too much to say about this stage, it's completely flat and features around two dozen laps of a small and explosive circuit. If a breakaway goes up the road, it won't be easy to catch them.
But this is terrain for all-out pace from the start, and the sprinter teams should be able to control it. All eyes on a bunch sprint and the final corner which comes very close to the finish, ending at around 200 meters to go.
Leadouts will be crucial here as whoever starts their sprint from the front may very well be close enough to the finish to avoid being surprised by the fast men coming from behind.
The Weather
The wind won't be felt but the heat will. We're going to have temperatures well into the 30's, not a shock to the system at this point for the riders but it will definitely have an effect.
The Favourites
Sam Welsford - This won't be a day for the GC riders even if they try to surprise, it will be all about the sprint. Sam Welsford has already crashed twice this week, that really isn't the ideal lead up to this stage but the reality is that he will be the man to beat. BORA's leadout is by far the best and Danny van Poppel can with certainty deliver him to the sprint in front. That will be hard to avoid, and in terms of pure speed it doesn't seem like there's anyone above him here. The criterium like style of racing is also ideal for him.
Other possible winners - Who can challenge the Australian? My best guess would be Matthew Brennan, honestly he's the only one who has shown the speed so far to beat him. But this doesn't mean only he can, I do believe that Tobias Lund Andresen could've done something special on stage 2 if he hadn't been blocked (although after getting a yellow card, I doubt van Poppel will again harm Welsford's rivals), and Henri Uhlig also carries some speed as well as a strong leadout including another possible card in Simon Dehairs. b at his best can certainly challenge top sprinters whilst Bryan Coquard is already a stage winner this week...
Sprint for the minor places - Even though the circuit can provide for some dangerous racing if a strong group is formed, teams will know this and will never give much freedom for attacks. Outside of the top men above, it's going to be very hard seeing anyone taking a win, but there are a few quality results to be taken.
Arne Marit has finished one of the sprints this week in second place, he wasn't close to winning but he can certainly do it again under the right conditions. I expect to see in the sprint men like Tim Torn Teutenberg, Corbin Strong, Casper Pedersen, Rui Oliveira, Matthew Walls and Samuel Watson as well.
Prediction 2025 Tour Down Under stage 6:
*** Sam Welsford
** Phil Bauhaus, Matthew Brennan, Tobias Lund Andresen
* Bryan Coquard, Henri Uhlig, Simon Dehairs, Arne Marit, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Corbin Strong, Matthew Walls
Pick: Sam Welsford
Original: Rúben Silva
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