Preview. Stage 1 of the Tour Down Under will be a fresh display of the peloton with a new image in 2024, and we should see a bunch sprint to decide the opening day of the Australian race.
The race begins in Tanunda with a 144-kilometer day. This one features three laps of a large circuit which includes the slight ascent to Mengler's Hill, however as the riders come down back into town they will organize to a bunch sprint.
With 45-kilometer laps, the first stage is not all easy but it's not tough business either. Most of the riders will be on their first competitive day in months and won't be looking to take many risks or tests themselves too much. As usually is the case, this should be a calm day on Australian roads. Menglers Hill is not too hard, a slight rise into 5% which summits with 13.5 kilometers to go. There will be some fight for positioning however as a steep descent follows, but the final kilometers are flat.
Flat and not too technical. There will be a 90-degree turn around the 1-kilometer mark however that, alongside a slight turn right after will be just about it. The finishing straight is still long so it won't be tackled with urgency by some. The finishing straight has a slight gradient but a bunch sprint is hard to avoid.
The Weather
Temperatures way above the 30 degrees will make for a tough day of racing, regardless of the rhythm. It will be stormy weather, rain could fall despite the brutal heat, and although the wind will be calmer than previous days, we've got a northeastern breeze. Hence, we've got a headwind sprint, whilst throughout the day direction changes constantly change.
The Favourites
Caleb Ewan - Ill on the rnu-up to the race, but this is not as key for a pure sprint. The stage will not be too hard, it's all about the sprint and Ewan has the speed. Recently a winner of the Australian criterium nationals, he is also with great motivation due to his new team. The headwind sprint is what does it for me however, without much technique necessary and in such conditions, he can strike.
Sam Welsford - Welsford is a very inconsistent sprinter, however that may have been the consequence of not having a good leadout in the past. The Australian now races for BORA - hansgrohe, and will have the support of Ryan Mullen and Danny van Poppel. Of course, the first time is always hard to be ideal, however if he follows the right wheels, he can finish it off.
Phil Bauhaus - Bauhaus is a strong sprinter and has been on the rise. Slowly, Bahrain have put more focus into supporting him, and slowly he's been in the mix among the best sprinters. Relatively consistent, there would be little surprise if the German managed to take the first triumph of 2024 already here.
INEOS - The true question is who they will support in the run-up for the sprinters. Filippo Ganna and Elia Viviani are both preparing for track races, they are close friends and they can both leadout each other. Logic would say Ganna will do the deed for his compatriot. However I'd argue that the British team has better chances supporting Ganna in this sprint, although he may have better chances later in the week.
Then we've got a few other fast men who've got chances of netting the first ochre jersey. Biniam Girmay for example on his day packs a serious sprint, although he may also benefit from some climbing. Max Kanter, Corbin Strong, Ivan García Cortina, Dan McLay, Alvaro Hodeg, Casper Pedersen, Mathias Vacek and Emils Liepins.
Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 stage 1:
*** Caleb Ewan, Sam Welsford
** Phil Bauhaus, Filippo Ganna
* Elia Viviani, Biniam Girmay, Max Kanter, Corbin Strong, Ivan García Cortina, Dan McLay
Pick: Caleb Ewan
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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