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PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2024 - Simon Yates the favourite for GC; Alaphilippe, Ganna and Tarling among star-studded start to 2024 season
CyclingMonday, 15 January 2024 at 18:46
Preview. The Tour Down Under is the first major road race of the road season and opens up the World Tour racing. From the 16th to 21st of January the season kicks off with racing in Australia.
The race begins in Tanunda with a 144-kilometer day. This one features three laps of a large circuit which includes the slight ascent to Mengler's Hill, however as the riders come down back into town they will organize to a bunch sprint. Stage 2 into Lobethal is a relatively open day. Short on the bike and with another circuit, however the final three-lap circuit features some hilltops where attacks can come. Here the racing will be open, the GC can be played for, but a sprint is also possible.
Stage 3 starts uphill however it should be a relatively easy day to control. The race rides into Campbelltown but will not tackle the Corkscrew climb. Instead, a flat day where a bunch sprint will be hard to prevent. Stage 4 to Port Elliot will also be short and just as suited to the sprinters. There will be very little obstacles to tackle en route to the finish line.
Stage 1: Tanunda - Tanunda, 144 kilometers
Stage 2: Norwood - Lobethal, 141.6 kilometers
Stage 3: Tea Tree Gully - Campbelltown, 145.3 kilometers
Stage 4: Murray Bridge - Port Elliot, 136.2 kilometers
Stage 5 sees the return of the Willunga Hill. It's the traditional Tour Down Under finale, and a stage that can be decisive. The riders will climb twice the 3-kilometer ascent at 7.5% which coincides with the finish line.
The race ultimately ends in Mount Lofty. After it's success of 2023 the race organizers decided to repeat the formula. On the menu is an interesting finale, with an explosive start to the stage and then a three-lap circuit which ends atop the ascent each time. It's one with slight gradients, but the hilltop finish provides opportunities for attacks and for the ochre jersey to change hands right at it's hand.
Stage 5: Christies Beach - Willunga Hill, 129.3 kilometers
Stage 6: Unley - Mount Lofty, 128.2 kilometers
Team Jayco AlUla - The Aussie team races at home, and they throw the whole kitchen sink at this race. Last year they rode quite strongly here and they are coming with the same formula. Simon Yates had a brilliant season and returns, and is considered by some as the man to beat. Old Willunga Hill is the decisive climb of the race, and it surely does suit his style of racing. However Jayco have more weapons: one in Luke Plapp who has just won both time-trial and road race at the National championships; but also Chris Harper who rode together with Plapp to victory in the road race, and could be a very dangerous weapon if the team dares to play with their depth.
INEOS Grenadiers - Jhonatan Narváez has just surged to victory on the Down Under Classic, he's packing a strong sprint and bonifications can be crucial in this race. The Ecuadorian is a very strong and explosive puncheur, he can absolutely fight for the victory; whilst Laurens de Plus, Leo Hayter and who knows... Filippo Ganna may all also have eyes on the ochre jersey.
UAE Team Emirates - This is a very modest team for UAE, but still quite strong. All of it's Grand Tour riders and stage racers are in Europe preparing for the season, but that doesn't prevent a strong team from being here. Diego Ulissi and Alessandro Covi come in as puncheurs with a strong sprint, whilst Finn Fisher-Black is more of a specialist, and has proven last year that at his best can win at World Tour level. The team also comes in with new signings and youngsters António Morgado and Isaac del Toro - the latter finished on the podium of the Down Under Classic, great signs for the Mexican on his pro debut.
Israel - Premier Tech - Israel are a team suited to this race, and they have several weapons. I dare say actually, six out of their seven riders can fight for the GC. Corbin Strong can sprint and be a big favourite for the tricky hilly days... Simon Clarke can do so to a certain point as well if he's on good form. In the oppostie side we've got George Bennett and Stephen Williams however both are well suited to such short climbs here. And lastly we've got 2023 breakthrough Derek Gee who can be a wildcard, whilst Nick Schultz is also a card to play on the hilly terrain.
Jack Haig - Haig has not raced here since 2015, but starts his season with a new goal. Leading Bahrain's GC ambitions, he will be a dangerous rider in pursuit of the ochre jersey. A strong climber, racing at home, and with a bit of a strong punch, he could be among the best with no doubt.
Julian Alaphilippe - Alaphilippe headlines Soudal - Quick-Step's lineup for the race. He is a punchy rider, and he may have the explosivity here because of the short distances and general calm pace we usually see from the peloton here. He could be in contention for a few stages, Willunga Hill may be too constant of a climb to suit him perfectly - although at his best, he'd be a menace here.
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Milan Vader - The Dutchman has tremendous power. He won the Tour of Guangxi last year, and here he will find climbs that are very similar. The stages should be very easy overall in comparison to others, so distance and endurance may not prevent him from fighting among the best.
A few other riders could fight for the overall classification here such as Movistar duo Ruben Guerreiro and Gonzalo Serrano, Roger Adrià, Ben Zwiehoff, Chris Hamilton, Oscar Onley, Simon Geschke, Michael Storer and Damien Howson.
Other big figures
The sprints should see some battles between fast men such as Caleb Ewan although he had a recent illness, Phil Bauhaus, Biniam Girmay... BORA - hansgrohe are to test their new leadout led by Sam Welsford - although Danny van Poppel could also have his chances. Filippo Ganna and Elia Viviani will be an interesting duo for INEOS. Corbin Strong, Max Kanter and Iván Garcia Cortina will be among the other fast men.
Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 overall classification:
*** Simon Yates
** Luke Plapp, Laurens de Plus, Stephen Williams, Milan Vader
* Jhonatan Narváez, Finn Fisher-Black, Diego Ulissi, Isaac del Toro, Derek Gee, Julian Alaphilippe, Jack Haig, Oscar Onley
Pick: Simon Yates
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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