The final 2 kilometers will be somewhat technical however, not having any sharp corners present, but some slight turning all throughout these two minutes of effort that could be very treacherous and where entering well positioned will be crucial.
Stage 2: Karpacz - Karpacz, 148.3 kilometers
The second stage of the race will already be an important one for the overall classification as the riders go into the hills, starting and finishing off the day in Karpacz. A regular finale, however a shorter summit finish this time around, less well suited to the climbers.
Right at the start of the day there is some climbing, and then all over the stage there will be a few ascents scattered around. However all of the attention will be in the arrival which is a climb consisting of two sections. The first leads up to an intermediate sprint where the peloton finds a few kilometers at around 5%.
There is a small downhill section and then the final 3 kilometers average at 6.7%. It's not an ascent that is difficult enough to create serious differences and a sprint finish is likely, but there will be gaps and bonifications at play and of course, a first GC leader out of those who are fighting for the overall classification.
Stage 3: Walbrzych - Walbrzych, 158.7 kilometers
The third day of racing starts and finishes in the town of Walbrzych and for many it's a nightmarish day. Out of the 158 kilometers there is a barely a flat kilometer throughout the entire route and the total amount of climbing is of 3500 meters.
But these spread across dozens of climbs that the riders will face. There is no one moment of the stage where the race may explode, as there is climbing from start to finish. There are three steep ascents that could be more important due to their proximity to the finish and high gradient.
1.9Km at 9.7% (44.5Km to go); 3Km at 7.6% (30.5Km to go) and 1.2Km at 8.8% (15Km to go) certainly mark important points on the day before a slight downhill finish.
Stage 4: Rybnik - Ciezyn, 199.9 kilometers
Stage 4 sees a return of the sprinters to the front. It is a day with 200 kilometers on the menu starting in Rybnik and finishing in Ciezyn, however it's not all flat and the first two thirds of the day do feature some ascents where a high pace can put some in difficulty.
However it is not dramatic and the peloton will then travel to a final circuit where they will take on four urban laps finishing with a 700-meter ascents that averages at 4%. Not a pure sprint, it can be argued.
Stage 5: Katowice - Zakopane, 207.1 kilometers
The longest day of the race will come on stage 5, starting in Katowice and finishing in Zakopane, two locations used to receiving the race. This is a day for the puncheurs but it can also end in a reduced bunch sprint or breakaway.
The stage features some climbing but the most difficult ascents of the day come far from the finish and shouldn't be attacked. In the finale of the 207-kilometer stage we'll have a 4-kilometer long ascent at 5.4% that ends with 13 kilometers to go.
Then a downhill and a slight uphill drag to the line in Zakopane where even those who survive the climbing beforehand, will need good legs to reach the final meters with the ability to sprint.
Stage 6: Bukowina Resort - Bukowina Tatrzanska, 147.1 kilometers
The queen stage? Most would say so, even if it is quite a short stage it is the one that presents the toughest climbs in the race and comes in the penultimate day which means fatigue will also play a role at this point of the week. The stage also does start off with a steep ascents where we may see some big attacks to form a breakaway.
The riders go on a little circuit that features two climbs during the middle part of the day and then late in the stage they tackle the first of the climbs again but then with a different summit finish. With 10 kilometers to go ends a climb of 2.5 kilometers at 8%, but the maximum is quite higher and the climb has serious ramps where big differences can be made.
But after this ascent and the small plateau that follows, there is still a final climb to Bukowina Tatranska to be tackled which is around 4.5 kilometers long at just over 5%. The hardest part of the climb is it's first half which averages around 7%.
Stage 7 (ITT): Kopalnia Soli - Kopalnia Soli, 12.5 kilometers
The face finished with a time-trial in Kopalnia Soli. This will only be 12.5 kilometers in length, hence less decisive perhaps than usual in this race, and it will also be one that is not easy to manage.
Right of the starting ramp the riders find a climb where meaningful differences can be made with 1.3 kilometers at 5.8%. This is where the biggest amount of time can be gained but it must be a managed effort as the remainder is slightly downhill and quite a fast effort.
The Favourites
UAE - UAE is in my opinion the strongest team in the race, overall very well rounded but having several cards to play for the overall win. They have
Rafal Majka who's racing Pologne as national champion for the first time and will be a star; the time-trial will see him lose time but this should see UAE use him for long-range attacks and to explode the race. Whilst on the helm,
Jan Christen and
Brandon McNulty both love this type of explosive stage and can both ride strong time-trials that can gather them the GC win.
BORA - BORA is a mixed bag, but no-one can deny they have the cards. On paper, four victory contenders in their lineup, although we can be sure that at least one of them won't have their best legs. Matteo Sobrero is a strong time-trialist who can defend himself on the climbs; Daniel Martínez is a strong climber who can defend himself on the time-trials; Finn Fisher-Black is a very strong puncheur who can time-trial very well and on top of all that the team has Maxim van Gils who has struggled to show his best form this year but has done so in San Sebastian and could be very strong here.
Mathias Vacek - The Czech rider is, like last year, riding a smaller calendar during the summer and with this he has shown terrific form with a double win at the national championships and a stage win (plus second overall) at the recent Tour de Wallonie. Lidl-Trek do not have as much of a team as the two above but it might not be a decisive factor. Vacek is a terrific time-trialist, great climber in this sort of terrain and can sprint to bonifications very well.
We will have riders like
Antonio Tiberi, Magnus Sheffield and
Ethan Hayter who can be extremely dangerous in the final time-trial and hence be serious contenders to win the race if they are not distanced early in the race; on the opposite side of the spectrum riders like
Matthew Riccitello and
Max Poole who have a lot of talent on the climbs and may use that terrain to be within a shot of overall success.
Inbetween many other quality riders such as
Pello Bilbao, Filippo Zana, Michal Kwiatkowski and Astana duo
Alberto Bettiol and
Diego Ulissi - who finished second to Jonas Vingegaard here one year ago on this very race.
The race will also be able to count on sprinters such as Olav Kooij, Matthew Brennan, Ethan Vernon, Casper van Uden, Elia Viviani, Madis Mihkels, Sam Bennett, Paul Magnier, Fernando Gaviria and Arvid de Kleijn. Stefan Küng will be an interesting stage hunter and favourites for the time-trial whilst Chris Froome will certainly be a big name at the start of the race.
Prediction Tour de Pologne 2025 overall classification:
*** Mathias Vacek, Jan Christen, Magnus Sheffield
** Brandon McNulty, Antonio Tiberi, Ethan Hayter, Maxim van Gils
* Rafal Majka, Finn Fisher-Black, Daniel Martínez, Max Poole, Michal Kwiatkowski, Alberto Bettiol, Pello Bilbao, Filippo Zana, Diego Ulissi
Pick: Mathias Vacek
Original: Rúben Silva