PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 7 - Mur-de-Bretagne summit finish could see Mathieu van der Poel win in yellow?

Stage 7 of the Tour de France will be another hilly day, this time around finishing in the Mur-de-Bretagne. Last time around, Mathieu van der Poel won in this climb back in 2021, and now he comes back as the main favourite in the yellow jersey. But Tadej Pogacar will be chasing his second stage win, on a day where the GC riders will be pushed to the limit once again. We preview the day ahead.

The fourth explosive hilltop finish of the week, in the very famous Mur-de-Bretagne. Overall it's a day where most will look to save themselves throughout the day and then go all-out in the leadout to the final ascent - which will not be technical.

With 15.5 kilometers to go the riders will go up the Mur for the first time, and then have a second hilltop right after. But then afterwards, mostly downhill, the run-up to the final hilltop finish will be very fast and furious with everyone using their men to enter the steep ramps in the head of the peloton.

A day where riders will save it all for the final 2 kilometers which average 6.9%. The first kilometers averages 10% in a straight road, and then the gradient gradually gets easier which will make for a very difficult climb to manage.

The wind will blow from the northeast, making for an overall tailwind throughout the day which absolutely does favour a breakaway. In the decisive kilometers though, this could potentially lead to a headwind on the final climb which makes attacks harder to succeed and a sprint more likely for the stage win.

Tadej Pogacar - The "old" yellow jersey will be the main favourite to win the stage in my opinion because van der Poel will have been burning a lot of energy day after day and has taken himself to the absolute limit. I believe the two will be at a similar level and it's a finale that suits the Dutchman better, but Pogacar will be fresher likely and should be able to sprint to another victory. If there is a peloton finish then that will be happening. Furthermore, with Jhonatan Narváez and João Almeida, UAE can perfect a leadout all the way to the finish that will already have everyone in the limit.

Mathieu van der Poel - Van der Poel is the only rider who can realistically stop him, but as I said he has burnt a lot of matches today. The riders can recover quite a lot from day to day so I wouldn't expect to see a cracking Dutchman but when the level is this high you can't afford to bring your very best level. Still I do believe Alpecin will be able to do a perfect job for him and give him the best chances of succeeding.

As has been the case over the past hilly stages we'll have the GC men up front, but it will be a matter of limiting losses or trying not to lose time to Pogacar on the road depending on who you are. Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Kévin Vauquelin, Oscar Onley, Matteo Jorgenson, Florian Lipowitz will all be there as the closest competitors. Others will be there too but a matter of surviving.

I think it makes little sense to mention the puncheurs, but doing so I would add Romain Grégoire as the one man outside of the GC riders who can surprise to take a spot in the podium; although Ben Healy is on terrific form and could also be up there after the performance that he's shown today.

So for everyone else it's a matter of getting in the breakaway. This certainly won't be easy, the start of the stage is flat and unlike today I think Alpecin will do a real effort to ensure they keep the yellow jersey (although if a strong group goes up the road without anyone close in GC, they may just well let it go in order to not allow Pogacar to take bonifications and steal yellow). The tailwind makes it more possible for the front group to succeed, but I would expect a group consisting of more rouleurs and less climbers.

In the field of some more punchy classics riders we've got Neilson Powless, Alex Baudin, Louis Barré, Axel Laurance, Thibau Nys, Valentin Madouas, Julian Alaphilippe, Marc Hirschi, Mauro Schmid, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Sergio Higuita, Clément Champoussin, Simone Velasco, Lennert van Eetvelt, Jenno Berckmoes, Michael Woods and Alexey Lutsenko.

Whilst in the field of those who are more likely to be in the breakaway but then have to race tactically to anticipate their rivals in the end: Fred Wright, Matej Mohoric, Jasper Stuyven, Matteo Trentin, Luke Plapp, Iván Romeo, Alex Aranburu and Jonas Abrahamsen.

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Mathieu van der Poel, Jonas Vingegaard
* Oscar Onley, João Almeida, Kévin Vauquelin, Matteo Jorgenson, Florian Lipowitz, Romain Grégoire, Ben Healy, Remco Evenepoel, Neilson Powless, Axel Laurance, Julian Alaphilippe, Simone Velasco, Alexey Lutsenko, Iván Romeo, Luke Plapp, Jonas Abrahamsen

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: UAE leadout up the final climb and a sprint victory taking him to the yellow jersey.