PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 11 - Will Visma test Pogacar again on explosive finish?

Stage 11 of the Tour de France will be the first day of the second week and it'll be an explosive one. We could see a breakaway, sprint or even GC action on the very explosive urban route into Toulouse where everyone will need to show their best level. We preview the stage ahead.

The second week starts off with a day that begins and finishes in Toulouse. A day for a potential breakaway, late attacks or reduced bunch sprint. The finale has plenty small climbs which could blow up the race. It is a short stage with 156 kilometers in distance, but in the end this will turn into an explosive factor.

We have a shark-tooth profile but the most difficult one will be the final one and we will have a very big leadout battle into it. The Côte de Pech David is 800 meters long at 10% and ends with a mere 9 kilometers to go. After a small descent the riders are already within Toulouse and will then cross the city to reach the flat finale where at the end of the day a sprint - albeit reduced - continues to be the most likely scenario.

Toulouse in the summer is extremely hot. Although the riders will avoid any extreme temperatures, we will still have some 29 degrees and this will be hard for a few men in the peloton. We will have a northwestern breeze throughout the day, an overall headwind trend in the final part of the stage but this does not necessarily apply to the climbs.

GC Fight - We will have it in some way or form. Firstly, although (outside the time-trial) Jonas Vingegaard looks incredibly sharp, the attempt to gain time outside the mountains remains and both Visma and UAE have to remain fully focused and position their leaders perfectly on this day. On paper, the team can still use Matteo Jorgenson to put pressure on Tadej Pogacar, but he cannot attack on the climbs as that will be easy to control. I think Visma can absolutely try a collective attack at some point in one of the climbs just as they are used to doing in the classics. But UAE have Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez in insane form who could help Pogacar even in the worst case scenario. For Pogacar it's a day to save, although a stage win and/or bonifications could definitely be in play in the finale.

All the GC riders will need to be attentive not to lose time, for the Top10 contenders this is actually even more important as they will have a legitimate battle to have this position, outside of the podium fight. I would consider Remco Evenepoel quite dangerous still, a late attack - with no direct response from Pogacar or Vingegaard - could see him escape with a solo win. Honestly, Ben Healy is in yellow but there's no reason for him not to try if he's in position. 

Sprint - Can this stage finish in a sprint? Quite possible, but the climbs will weight heavy and the final kilometers should be quite hard to control inside Toulouse. Men like Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier would on paper have the advantage but I have serious question over their possibilities. Sprinters like Biniam Girmay, Arnaud de Lie and Bryan Coquard could however have a big say in a course like this, and I wouldn't exclude Wout van Aert from also giving it a go under the right circumstances.

You have riders like Axel Laurance, Oscar Onley, Sergio Higuita and Romain Grégoire who are very fast but they'd need a sprint finish after an all-out GC fight in the climbs I'd say in order to have a shot. And in the middle some men who climb well but need the right circumstances to fight for the win such as Kaden Groves, Vincenzo Albanese, Sam Watson, Danny van Poppel, Tobias Lund Andresen, Jake Stewart and Magnus Cort Nielsen.

Late attack - Besides Grégoire, I would absolutely put on the table the classics riders giving it a shot with a late attack to try and succeed. On the climb only Mathieu van der Poel could succeed, and he could split the group into being small enough for him to be the main contender to victory. Quinn Simmons and Julian Alaphilippe are also dangerous men who are aggressive and could attack the final kilometers.

Breakaway - This would include some of the riders that would be in the list above, but honestly when you've got men like van der Poel or Pogacar you can't expect to make the difference uphill and a victory would only be possible with a lucky late attack - so a breakaway is the best shot for many, who should try and take advantage of it.

We need a mix of strong classics riders, some who can climb but also have the experience and ability to ride well on the flat roads. I would mention Neilson Powless (if given the freedom by the team), Fred Wright, Matej Mohoric, Valentin Madouas, Marc Hirschi, Pablo Castrillo, Alex Aranburu and Jonas Abrahamsen.

*** Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert
** Remco Evenepoel, Arnaud de Lie, Biniam Girmay
* Jonas Vingegaard, Matteo Jorgenson, Tobias Johannessen, Bryan Coquard, Kaden Groves, Oscar Onley, Axel Laurance, Romain Grégoire, Julian Alaphilippe, Jonas Abrahamsen

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel

How: Small group sprint win.