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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 13 - Echelons and breakaway can spoil the fun for the likes of Biniam Girmay and Wout van Aert in Pau
CyclingFriday, 12 July 2024 at 09:21
We preview stage 13 of the Tour de France, a day where on paper the sprinters are the main favourites however we may see surprises en route to Pau. There are a few small hills both at the start and end of the stage which opens things up for a lot of riders.
Another day for the sprinters, even if it includes perhaps more climbing than some would hope for. It's a treacherous day as the riders head into the base of the Pyrenees, the hilly start will provide an opportunity for the breakaway whilst the sprinters will look to take the glory on the day.
Stage 13: Agen - Pau, 171 kilometers
In sum, another headache for the pure sprinters who just want a flat day and their best chances in a bunch sprint, but have to tackle a string of annoying hilltops. A fast start is expected, with none less than four small ascents where strong rouleurs are expected to make a move. This is a day where a breakaway can succeed with no doubt and so a furious start is expected. The peloton will have to ride a good pace all throughout the day in order to never give it much freedom; but simultaneously they would likely want to not close it too much because it will motivate attacks in the latter climbing section.
With 43.5, 38.5 (1.6Km; 6.1%), 30 (1.8Km; 6.6%) and 24.5 (0.8Km; 6.6%) kilometers to go there is the summit of four small ascents, all in quick sequence. This can serve for a few teams to really push the pace hard - if they do, a few sprinters can certainly be dropped - but also for attacks to come off the peloton with an hour of racing left. With high mountain stages ahead, this will be the last opportunity in a while for a few riders to give it a shot, so we cannot discard that possibility.
After which it calms down, and there is time to reorganize. The riders descend slightly and head into Pau, a very familiar host city of the Tour. Fun fact, it is the third city with the most starts/finishes of Tour history with 74, only behind Paris and Bordeaux. Number 75 (and 76 on tomorrow's start) await the peloton. This time around a sprint, which will be technical.
The final kilometers take place within the city but it will really be important to be at the front into the final kilometer. With 1.1 kilometers to go there is a 90-degree left corner, with 800 meters to go a roundabout and slight right-hander, and with 500 meters to go a full-speed slight turn to the left where there will be no breaking but no opportunity to overtake. At this point we are already almost in the final sprint and those caught out of position will struggle to recover. This is one for the experienced and strong leadouts.
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The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 13
We are in for quite a day! Small chances of rain throughout the afternoon but it is the wind that we must pay attention to. It will blow relatively hard from the west all afternoon long. Early in the day not as strong but it would also come as a headwind, but the last 100 kilometers should mostly have crosswinds and in terrain that is exposed. With some climbs, this can prove to be a very dangerous day for some GC riders; and open for late attacks to succeed too. A bunch sprint is not assured at all.
The Favourites
Biniam Girmay - The Eritrean is on fire. At first I believed his first sprint victory was out of luck and good positioning in the chaos but I was wrong. It is still rather incredible to me that he has now won three sprints as he doesn't look the fastest of sprinters; but is in such good form and positions himself so well that he arrives in the sprints fresh and better than the rest. He will be one of the riders who can climb the best here and could win yet another one. But don't expect Intermarché to work, they will be happy to let an attack or breakaway go so that Jasper Philipsen can't close the gap in the points classification much.
Jasper Philipsen - At this point, with 107 points to close to get the green jersey, it's starting to become mission impossible. Alpecin also lost two riders today... Philipsen is the rider for a sprint but chances that the team will focus fully on controlling breakaways and attacks are getting smaller. If Mathieu van der Poel has the legs, he should have freedom - as Philipsen did at least already win a sprint.
Wout van Aert - Crashed yesterday, said he was happy to just continue in the race, but went on to sprint for second - and could've been more if he hadn't been blocked. Van Aert is growing in form and this is a stage that, being hard, will suit him better than other finales. In a bunch sprint you don't need absolute best form to win, and he has shown to have the speed to take one even in a regular flat finale.
Behind we'll have an interesting mix of sprinters who can get some results here. The pure sprinters such as Mark Cavendish and Dylan Groenewegen could struggle and instead Astana and Jayco may protect more Davide Ballerini or Michael Matthews on the day... I would not be surprised to see Lotto or EF pull on the climbs to favour the likes of Arnaud De Lie and Marijn van den Berg who will want the race as hard as possible.
Pascal Ackermann has been in great form and is also a very viable victory contender. Fernando Gaviria, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Ryan Gibbons and Nils Eekhoff are all sprinters to keep an eye on here.
Despite the headwind start, I do expect a fierce fight for the breakaway. On the opening week teams are, somewhat ridiculously in my opinion, extremely conservative. It is only from the second week onwards that they start to feel the pressure and focus well on breakaway. They have better chances of succeeding now with more fatigue, more sprinter teams that have lost riders, and in general less sprinter teams that will want to work. But on this day not only the early attacks can succeed, but also late in the day if it splits or if the race is hard enough that in the climbs a quality group can get away and organize itself.
Some guys will prefer an early breakaway though as in the climbs they don't have the same explosivity. Riders like Stefan Küng, Stefan Bissegger, Jonas Abrahamsen, Anthony Turgis, Victor Campenaerts and Oliver Naesen can become true headaches for the peloton if they go up front.
We've got EF who should go wild on the day again, with plenty stage contenders or "at worst", Marijn van den Berg who'd like to sprint from a reduced peloton. Ben Healy, Rui Costa and Alberto Bettiol join Bissegger as stage hunters.
A few could indeed wait for the late climbs in the day and try to form a group strong enough that it can then withstand the peloton. Tom Pidcock should have the freedom; as do others like Romain Grégoire, Axel Zingle, Alex Aranburu, Oier Lazkano and who knows... Mathieu van der Poel perhaps if the race really explodes.
GC Fight - Don't expect direct attacks between the favourites themselves, but definitely expect a lot of tension and perhaps even attempt to split it in the crosswinds. Team Visma | Lease a Bike specially love and excel in this terrain. Not only can they thin things down for Wout van Aert by making it a hard race, but they may also put under pressure a Pogacar that has at times not had team support, or even Evenepoel. An interesting day, GC teams will have to be at their best with their rouleurs to keep the riders towards the front. At the top of the climbs specially I wouldn't be surprised to see some Visma accelerations.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 13:
*** Biniam Girmay, Jasper Philipsen
** Wout van Aert, Pascal Ackermann, Arnaud De Lie
* Marijn van den Berg, Bryan Coquard, Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud Démare, Jasper Stuyven, Ben Healy, Jonas Abrahamsen, Alberto Bettiol
Pick: Wout van Aert
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