PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 1 - Pogacar, Vingegaard, van Aert, van der Poel and Pidcock among favourites for brutal opening stage

Preview. Stage 1 of the Tour de France is the hardest in recent years and it takes the riders through a hilly and explosive course in the Basque Country. In Bilbao, the first yellow jersey will be awarded.

The Tour de France will start on one of cycling's sacred lands, the Basque Country. The opening day will have 183 kilometers in length and suit the puncheurs, and of course the climbers. It will be a day where the overall classification can be played, a different scenario to a Tour de France Grand Depart.

Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 1: 12:30-17:15CET

There are 3200 meters in altitude gain on this day, with a few hilltops right from the start. An interesting start to the day, which features five different categorized climbs. Over the second half the stage will have four ascents, those will be to Zabaleta, the Côte de Morga (3.8Km; 4.8%; 41.5Km to go) and the famous Alto de Vivero (4.3Km; 7.9%; 27.5Km to go) which will warm things up for the finale.

The decisive moment of the stage will be with no doubt the Côte de Pike. It is 2 kilometers long at 9,9%, a true Basque climb where the gradients go into 20%, expect massive and loud crowds all the way into the summit which is placed 10 kilometers to go - with bonus seconds at the top certain to make the race explode. The riders then have a slight descent back into the center of Bilbao, and later on the final kilometers has a 5.4% gradient, definitely a finale which will give the climbers better chances of succeeding. The first yellow jersey will be at hand in the finish line likely.

The Weather

In the days leading up to the race it has rained a bit, but it has not been serious. Humid roads are possible in some sections, however the weather won't the race much. There will be wind with considerable intensity, in the final climb it won't be felt, but in the final kilometers there could be a tailwind - in the final sprint too - which may help attackers.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - Straight to the point. Pogacar can win this this, yes. Is his form good? We've been asking that question for weeks, in the nationals he won both races, but yes it was against modest competition. But let's face some facts, riders like him, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel have shown time and time again to dominate competitions without any sort of racing beforehand. When you're that good, you don't need the race rhythm to win big. Now, that's not to say he'll dominate here, I don't think that will happen because it'd mean him dropping everyone in Pike, but certainly Pogacar will be strong enough to keep up with any attack and in the sprint he carries serious chances.

Jonas Vingegaard - Vingegaard isn't on paper a big favourite for this stage, but that depends on how it's raced. It's not his type of finale, but with the possibility of a non-top form Pogacar, Jumbo-Visma may want to attack the race from day 1, Vingegaard brings serious form into the race and can possibly take advantage of it. If anyone attacks he'll cover, if he has the legs he'll attack, and if that happens the finale may end up being much more selective than what we expect.

Wout van Aert - Of course, Jumbo-Visma may try to just keep themselves safe throughout the stage and give their sprinters a chance. Wout van Aert can climb, he may be dropped but if so, he won't be far from the front. The sprint will be uphill which takes away some of his advantage, but surely if all the pieces of the puzzle fall in the right spot he can take this first yellow jersey.

Mathieu van der Poel - You would be right to think this type of climb, Pike, isn't ideal for van der Poel, but after winning the Belgium Tour he's got climbing form and he is likely to be able to defend himself well. It's a short and sharp effort, and the uphill sprint is well suited to him. This will be a prime objective for van der Poel in the race, just as he searched in 2021.

A sprint to decide this stage is very possible, however everyone can agree that it's likely to be a reduced group. Perhaps, one only including GC riders and a few world-class classics riders. It's an interesting mix to take into consideration, but many also carry a strong sprint from there which could realistically beat the above. Take Julian Alaphilippe and Tom Pidcock for example for an puncheur-type finish. A few climbers can do the same however, take Tour de Suisse winner Mattias Skjelmose. Pello Bilbao, Richard Carapaz, David Gaudu and Felix Gall also have a very strong kick towards the line.

But of course, it could be not that destructive too. In the climb splits will be very big that's certain, but there will still be 9 kilometers to the line from there on, where many can return to the front of the race in small groups. Some sprinters can resist the climbs very well and could find themselves in a luxurious position then, take the likes of Alex Aranburu, Magnus Cort Nielsen or Christophe Laporte. Matej Mohoric, Benoît Cosnefroy, Maxim van Gils and Tobias Johannessen would also have a say in the scenario of a sprint finish.

There are a few more world class rider who could take the win, but these would be more by means of attacking, likely in the final kilometers or run-up to the line. The likes of Michael Woods and Dylan Teuns love these steep walls, climbers like Ben O'Connor, Jai Hindley, Enric Mas and Giulio Ciccone at their best will survive and may want to take the risk, and other puncheurs should be able to handle the efforts well and coud benefit from the lack of coverage such as Neilson Powless or Victor Lafay.

Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 1:

*** Tadej Pogacar, Wout van Aert, Julian Alaphilippe
** Mathieu van der Poel, Tom Pidcock, Mattias Skjelmose
* Jonas Vingegaard, Pello Bilbao, Richard Carapaz, Felix Gall, Alex Aranburu, Matej Mohoric

Pick: Julian Alaphilippe